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United States | Series reboot
一而再，再而三
英文部分选自经济学人20221119期美国版块
United States | Series reboot
一而再，再而三
Donald Trump declares that he will make America great again, again
唐纳德·特朗普再次宣称将复兴美国
Regrettably he should not be underestimated
可惜还得把他当回事儿
You could tell something was afoot on the swampy, sweltering evening of November 15th in Palm Beach. The bridge to Mar-a-Lago, the opulent resort where Donald Trump resides, was thronged with fans who draped themselves, despite the humidity, in “Make America Great Again” flags—ambling, praying, tailgating. Inside the former president’s palace, something extraordinary was indeed happening in front of a swankier crowd—an assemblage of suits with red baseball caps and evening dresses with pearls. Mr Trump was there to announce formally a decision that he had already hinted at over the past year: that he would be embarking on a revenge bid to take back the presidency in 2024.
11月15日晚，在潮湿闷热的美国棕榈滩，似有不同寻常之事即将发生。通往唐纳德·特朗普所居住的豪华度假胜地海湖庄园（Mar-a-Lago）的桥上挤满了他的粉丝，尽管天气潮湿，他们还是披着“复兴美国”的旗帜，漫步、祈祷、跟车。在这位前总统的豪宅里，确有非同寻常之事正在发生。这里的人群着装更加时髦奢华，他们或身穿西装、头戴红色棒球帽，或身穿晚礼服、颈戴珍珠项链，在这些人面前，特朗普正式宣布了他在过去一年多时间里旁敲侧击反复透露过的决定：在2024年一雪前耻，夺回总统宝座。
Ever since he left the White House, shortly after the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, Mr Trump has been plotting a comeback. He managed to keep a tight leash on the party throughout the midterm elections, meddling in primaries to pick candidates who most fervently endorsed the lie that Democrats had stolen the presidential election. Having restored himself to the helm of the party, the former president was preparing to crow after November 8th when Republicans expected to sweep back to power.
1月6日国会暴乱不久后，特朗普卸任总统一职，此后他便一直策划要东山再起。纵观中期选举，他始终牢牢把控共和党，插手各地初选，力挺那些坚信民主党窃取大选的谎言的候选人。这位重新执掌共和党的前总统，本准备在11月8日共和党有望重掌大权之后大放厥词。
That didn’t happen, however. The Senate remained in Democratic control, while Republicans scraped together the barest majority in the House of Representatives. The sycophants who ran in key races in the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania came up with naught. The performance was so sub-par that his advisers reportedly tried counselling him to delay the announcement. But contrition and humility are not Mr Trump’s thing. He simply took credit for the House flipping and blamed the bad results on other Republicans.
然而，事实并未如他所愿。参议院仍由民主党控制，而共和党在众议院勉强获得了多数席位。在亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州这两个摇摆州的关键竞选中，特朗普的马屁精们一无所获。据报道，由于选举态势过差，特朗普的顾问曾建议他推迟宣布参选总统的决定。但痛悔和谦卑向来不是特朗普的风格。他只把众议院的翻盘归功于自己，而把败绩归咎于其他共和党人。
There was little new in the speech, which was largely a rehashing of the hour-long stemwinders he has been delivering at political rallies for the better part of the year. He revelled in the fact that “now we are a nation in decline” and “a failing nation”, recapitulating the theme of “American carnage” from his inaugural address by describing “blood-soaked streets” in cities that are “cesspools of violent crimes” and the ongoing invasion of fentanyl-toting illegal immigrants. His policy recommendations remained the same, with some updates for new culture-war battles over critical race theory and transgender children, though in addition to old proposals he now wants to execute drug-dealers. Once again, only he alone could fix America’s decline.
特朗普的演讲没有什么新意，基本都是在重复他今年大部分时间在政治集会上所发表的长达一小时的激昂演说。他沉醉于“我们的国家正在衰落”和“我们国家正走向衰败”这一事实论调，通过论述城市中“血雨腥风的街道”是“暴力犯罪的污秽之地”以及携带新型毒品芬太尼的非法移民持续入侵，再现了他就职演说中的“美国大屠杀”主题。他的政策倡议亦如从前，只是谈论批判种族理论和跨性别儿童问题增加了新文化斗争纬度，此外，他现在还想处决毒品贩子。反正就是老调重弹：美国衰败，唯其一人能救。
But the fighting words were delivered with less verve. Perhaps the weight of the midterms embarrassment pressed down, or the mountain of legal inquiries, or the prospect of a two-year-long campaign. The light behind the eyes had dimmed. “I’m a victim, I will tell you,” he said in the most heartfelt portion of the speech.
特朗普演讲的内容依旧激昂，但实际发表时却少了些气场，也许是因为有感于中期选举表现不佳，法律调查堆积如山，或是未来竞选两年长路漫漫。他的眼神有些黯淡，讲到最动情处他由衷地说：“我跟你们说，我才是受害者”。
Mr Trump’s haste to re-enter the fray can be explained by two things. First, he faces multiple investigations: the Department of Justice is investigating whether or not he improperly took classified materials from the White House; the congressional January 6th committee has spent more than a year unravelling the effort to overturn the election result; prosecutors in Georgia are examining his exhortation to election officials to “find” enough votes for him to secure victory. Prosecuting a former president for this was already fraught and unprecedented, presenting difficult paths to trial and conviction. That he is also an active presidential candidate—with an excellent chance at winning his party’s nomination again, and, Democrats must admit, the general election, too—makes prosecution even harder.
有两个理由可以解释特朗普的匆忙参选。首先，他面临多项调查：司法部正在调查他是否从白宫不正当地带走机密文件；负责调查1月6日国会山骚乱事件的众议院特别调查委员会花了一年多调查旨在推翻大选结果的暴乱；佐治亚州的检察官正在调查特朗普干预该州选举的事宜，后者要求选举官员“找到”足够的选票确保其胜选。起诉前总统困难重重，且史无前例，审判和定罪都绝非易事。此外，特朗普还是本届总统候选人——他很有可能再次赢得共和党内提名，甚至（民主党人也得承认）赢得总统大选——这让起诉更加困难。
But, more important, his tight hold over the party is starting to be questioned, with elites searching for a way out that does not endanger their chance of maintaining power. Previous periods of questioning have usually been prompted by some whopping scandal—the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in the closing days of the 2016 election, the praising of white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or the campaign to delegitimise elections that ended in the sacking of the Capitol. In all cases, these doubts eventually subsided because Republicans reasoned that the man won them elections, and they could not figure out a way to do so without him.
特朗普匆忙参选的第二个理由，也是更重要的理由，是特朗普对共和党的把控开始受到质疑，党内精英们正在寻找一条不会威胁他们把权的出路。此前对特朗普的质疑常常是由于一些惊人丑闻，比如他在《走进好莱坞》节目中的不当言论录音在2016年大选最后几天遭到曝光，2017年他称赞在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔集会的白人至上主义者，再比如因意图推翻大选结果而最终导致国会山暴乱。在上述所有事件中，对特朗普的质疑最终都渐渐平息，这是因为共和党人认为特朗普为他们赢得了选举，而除了特朗普，没人能做到。
The midterms have called that into question. Mr Trump lost Republicans the House in his own midterm elections in 2018; he lost the presidential election in 2020; he almost single-handedly lost Republicans the Senate in the Georgia run-off elections held in 2021; and in 2022 he arguably kept the Senate in Democratic hands by boosting the campaigns of novice candidates. A morally compromised winner Republicans could live with; a morally compromised loser is less enticing.
然而，这一想法在中期选举时遭到质疑。2018年特朗普任内的中期选举，共和党输掉了众议院的多数席位；2020年的总统大选中，特朗普再次失利；2021年佐治亚州二轮决选中，他几乎以一己之力让共和党输掉了参议院的多数席位；而2022年的中期选举，特朗普大力支持的新人候选人（惨败），成为民主党保住参议院多数席位的重要原因。共和党可以忍受一个有道德缺陷的赢家，却难以忍受一个有道德缺陷的输家。
By declaring early, Mr Trump hopes to freeze out potential successors to lead the party like Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia—both of whom the former president has already taken to sniping at. At his announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump had the grace to refrain from reiterating his criticisms of them (he had branded one “Ron DeSanctimonious” and criticised the other for having a Chinese-sounding surname). Perhaps that is why the former president did not appear to be having much fun. He has always taken a relish to the personality-bashing aspects of politics, and much less to the dull business of policymaking.
特朗普希望，通过提前宣布参加2024年总统大选，自己可以狙击潜在的党魁竞争对手，如弗罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）和弗吉尼亚州州长格伦·杨金（Glenn Youngkin）。他讽刺过这两人，此前他称德桑蒂斯“德貌岸然”（Ron DeSanctimonious），批评杨金的姓氏听起来像中国人，但是在海湖庄园的演讲中，特朗普颇有风度地克制住了对他们的批评。也许这就是特朗普这次看起来并不开心的原因。他享受政治博弈中人身攻击的环节，远胜过枯燥的政策制定工作。
10 He also avoided repeating his claims that the presidential election was stolen, save one passing insinuation that some government had interfered to defeat him. If his advisers and speechwriters managed to keep him in check for one evening, they should not expect to do so over the interminable two-year campaign for the presidency that now awaits them.
他也避免重申总统宝座被窃取的论调，只是含沙射影地批评别国政府干预选举，导致其败选。然而，就算他的顾问和演讲撰稿人能让他克制一个晚上，也不能指望能让他在长达两年的总统竞选中持续如此。
Away from the presidential struggle that looms ahead, the tumult is being felt in other ways. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican congressman who expected to be easily made speaker of the House, secured such a small majority of seats that the far-right Freedom Caucus will be able to exact big concessions by threatening his removal.
除了即将到来的总统角逐，其他方面也危机四伏。众议院方面，共和党议员凯文•麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy）原本有望轻松当选议长，然而共和党仅以微弱优势获得多数席位，以至于极右派自由党团（顿时成为关键少数）能够通过罢免威胁来迫使他作出重大让步。
In the Senate, Mitch McConnell, the party’s leader, faced a leadership challenge from Rick Scott, the senator from Florida. Although Mr Scott chaired the party committee in charge of ensuring a Senate majority, he blames Mr McConnell for the lacklustre result because he had expressed some displeasure at the Trumpian slate of candidates. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the party ever since 2017, is also facing down a possible insurrection of her own. Even if all are ultimately unsuccessful, they reflect the anxieties of a party that must once again decide if the pact with Mr Trump is worth it.
参议院方面，多数党（共和党）领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）面临着佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特（Rick Scott）对其领袖地位的挑战。尽管斯科特是负责确保参议院多数席位的共和党参议院委员会主席，但他将选举结果不佳归咎于麦康奈尔，因为后者曾对特朗普的候选人名单表达不满。自2017年以来一直担任共和党全国委员会主席的罗娜·麦克丹尼尔（Ronna McDaniel）也正忙于打压一场潜在的党内叛乱。即使所有这些举动都未能掀起什么风浪，但还是反映出共和党内的焦虑，即必须重新审度与特朗普达成的协议是否值得。
Time and time again, the elected Republicans have balked when presented with opportunities to distance themselves from Mr Trump. The next few months will offer another one. At the moment, other contenders, including Trump administration officials like the former vice-president Mike Pence, who just released a memoir somewhat critical of his boss, are jostling for position but are unlikely to immediately declare their candidacies. Mr DeSantis would probably wait until after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Being the only major declared candidate might give Mr Trump the opportunity to consolidate slipping support within the party. It might also leave him the one most exposed to attacks from within. “The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Mr Trump warned in his speech. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire than only a few could understand.” That sense of apocalyptic anxiety is widely shared.
当选的共和党人一次又一次有机会与特朗普保持距离，但却始终犹豫不决。这样的机会在接下来的几个月还会出现。目前，其他竞争者，包括前副总统迈克·彭斯（Mike Pence）等特朗普政府官员，属意总统之位，但不太可能立即宣布参选。彭斯刚刚出版了一本回忆录，对特朗普颇有微词。德桑蒂斯可能会等到明年5月佛罗里达州立法会议结束后才宣布竞选。作为唯一宣布参选的主要候选人，特朗普可能借此巩固党内不断下滑的支持率。而这也可能让他在党内成为众矢之的。“前路不会一帆风顺，”特朗普在演讲中警告称，“这是一个备受操纵的腐败体系，任何真正想要挑战它的人都将面临狂风暴雨，只有少数人明白个中滋味。”这种遭遇末日般的焦虑感普遍存在。
翻译组：
Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点
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Rain
，蒙村小香菜

Iris，博物馆小可爱
Hannah，做个废柴，保持愉快
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