致死4000万人！1918年大流感对全球新冠疫情有什么样的启示？（附视频&解说稿）

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据世卫组织3月14日发布的最新数据，截至中部欧洲时间14日上午10时，中国以外新冠肺炎确诊病例达到61518例，新增确诊病例9751例。中国以外死亡病例较前一日增加424例，达到2199例。

全球范围内，新冠肺炎确诊病例较前一日增加9769例，达到142539例；死亡病例较前一日增加438例，达到5393例。同时，过去24小时内，新增13个国家或地区出现首例病例。

世卫组织总干事谭德塞13日表示，欧洲现在已成为新冠肺炎全球疫情最严重地区，其报告的确诊和死亡病例超过中国以外其他国家和地区的总和。世卫组织13日发布了“针对疑似COVID-19严重急性呼吸道感染的临床管理”，为临床医生提供临时指南。

全球疫情持续肆虐，华盛顿邮报制作了一个《1918年大流感对新冠肺炎的启示》短片，来看看究竟有哪些启示？

-In 1918, a new respiratory virus jumped species from animals to humans, spread throughout the world, infected probably about 1/3 of the world's population. It killed between 50 and 100 million people, which if you adjust for population, that would be equivalent to 225 million to 440 million people today.

The overwhelming majority of those deaths occurred in a very brief period of probably about 14 to 15 weeks. I'm John Barry. I'm a writer. Wrote a book, among others, called "The Great Influenza" -- the story of the deadliest pandemic in the history. I'm also on the faculty at the Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine.

This was not ordinary influenza by another name. People could die in less than 24 hours after the first symptoms. That wasn't common, but it definitely happened. Some of the symptoms were horrific. In fact, it was initially misdiagnosed as everything from cholera, typhoid, dengue -- which referred to as breakbone fever, to give you a sense of those symptoms.

People could bleed not only from their nose and mouth, but from their eyes and ears, which is pretty horrific and terrifying. When public health authorities are saying this is ordinary influenza by another name, the public knows perfectly well that they were being lied to. And I actually think that, when you come right down to it, society is based on trust.

And without trust, society is going to begin to break down, and that's actually what happened. I mean, the lies were so extreme in Philadelphia at a time when the city was digging mass graves, priests were literally driving horse-drawn carts through the street calling on people to bring out their dead.

One of the Philadelphia newspapers said, "This is not a public health measure. There's no cause for alarm." I mean, how stupid did they think people were? So knowing that they were being lied to, not being able to trust anything that they're being told or anyone in authority, people began to lose trust in each other.

It was very alienating. It became every person for himself or herself, every family looking out only for themselves. Influenza, it's always going to be a new virus. Coronaviruses, their natural reservoir, apparently, is bats.

Number one, this is a lethal threat.

Number two, it is not going to wipe out civilization, but it's dangerous.

Number three, we do have the opportunity to exercise some control over what happens both to us individually and to the society and the economy.

The social distancing, as the Chinese have demonstrated, you know, works. It can have a significant impact on the outcome and the course of the disease. If there is widespread compliance, then I think we can, you know, significantly affect the course of the disease. And if there isn't, we could be in for it.