首谈新冠肺炎恐慌！股神巴菲特的120分钟年度专访还聊了啥？（附完整视频）

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美国时间2月24日上午，沃伦·巴菲特在奥马哈伯克希尔总部，接受CNBC电视台主持人Becky Quick“Ask Warren”节目的访谈，并回答了诸多观众的提问。

全程2小时，话题涵盖新冠肺炎疫情、开盘后的美股暴跌、低利率对保险公司影响、如何理性地做出投资决策、买入一家公司或股票的判断指标，以及对达美航空、卡夫亨氏、美国银行、富国银行、DQ等旗下诸多业务的评价。

这也是巴菲特多年来的惯例操作，在周六发表了《致股东信》后，会在下个周一接受CNBC采访，对《致股东信》中的重点话题进一步作出阐释。

巴菲特好像每年年报发出后，都接受CNBC采访，2个多小时，身体真好！做投资要赚钱，必须得听明白巴菲特他老人家的话，如下：巴菲特他老人家在赤裸裸的看空市场。

Oh,we’ll outperform in a down market. But-- but that may not be particularlysatisfactory-- to people. we’re geared somewhat away from full marketparticipation in either direction. But that’s fine. 哦，我们在低迷的市场中表现会更好，但这可能并不特别令人满意。我们在某种程度上远离了全面市场参与的方向，但这很好。

【谈：新冠病毒影响】And the real question is is has the ten-year or 20-year outlook forAmerican businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?如果您购买企业，那么您将拥有十年，二十年或三十年的所有权。真正的问题是，过去24小时或48小时美国企业的十年或20年前景是否发生变化？ “Trouble is coming.” But Isaid, “Buy stocks.” 我说：“麻烦来了”， 但是我说：“买股票。”And we think the 20- and 30-year outlook is notchanged by coronavirus.我们认为，冠状病毒不会改变20年和30年的前景。

【谈：伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在一年，三年，五年和十年的表现上均落后于标准普尔500指数。】So, it-- I would say related to safety of principal over time-- Ifeel good about it. 因此，我觉得这与长期安全性根本原则有关。but our ability to have ahuge edge over the market generally with a $550 billion market value-- it’sjust, it’ll be minor, but it’ll be done in a very, very safe manner. 所以-但是我们有能力去保持5500亿美元的市值在市场上的巨大优势：只是，这是次要的，但它会以非常非常安全的方式完成。（注：看明白巴菲特的辩解：安全第一！很简单，都那么有钱啦，冒险战胜指数干嘛？）Depends on the kind ofmarket we’re in. If we’re in a down market, we’re-- we’re going to beat it. Imean, it’s that simple. And sometimes we will beat. The last 10 years. Wehaven’t been. But-- over 55 years, it’s worked. And-- and it-- it will continueworking. 取决于我们所处的市场类型。如果我们处在低迷的市场中，那么我们将击败指数。我的意思是，就是这么简单，有时我们会击败。最近十年，我们没有击败指数。但是近55年来，它一直有效。而且-而且-它会继续有效。（注：以最安全的方式投资，近10年没战胜指数，那又如何？熊市，必赢无疑，巴菲特已做好准备。）

So,we’re about 80% in-- roughly in equities and about 20% in cash. And I’drather-- I’d rather have that 20% in other good businesses. But, that is tosome extent a curse of size. And it’s to some extent the fact that, it’s veryhard. If interest rates stay at this level, we’ll wish we’d-- for the next 10or 20 years, we’ll wish we’d been 125% in equities. 因此，我们大约有80％的资金（大约是股票）和大约20％的现金。我宁愿-我宁愿将20％的股份用于其他良好的业务。但这在一定程度上是一种诅咒。在某种程度上，这是非常困难的事实。如果利率保持在此水平，我们希望在未来10或20年内，股票能达到125％。

【谈：留存收益retainedearnings】 And- Berkshire hasretained earnings ever since we started. That’s the only reason Berkshire isworth a lot more as we retain earnings. Berkshire自我们成立以来就一直保留收益，这是伯克希尔拥有更多价值的唯一原因，因为我们保留了收益。（注：巴菲特特别关注留存收益和资本性支出的效能，该怎么分析跟踪？）

【谈：航空公司】But we own a very roughly ten-- close to 10% of-- the four largestairlines. 但是我们拥有大约四家最大的航空公司中的大约10%股份（接近10％）。（注：巴菲特可能是:看准生意模式和价格，但无法确定那个是最后的赢家，就用一个TOP4组合来投资，避免看错的风险。有点类似如今的银行投资组合？！）There’s-- a lot ofcomplications because it’s--a regulated industry. 这是一个受管制的行业，因为它有很多复杂性。（注：受管制的行业很复杂，需要一个投资组合来应对各类风险。由此，机场资产是否也该如此？）

【谈：富国银行Wells Fargo】 1）确认：卖出WFC，买入BOA。对WFC的卖出是基于管理层在干蠢事：最愚蠢的激励措施。巴神的卖出，与10%限额没关系，很坚决。2）巴菲特继续看好增持达到经营良好标准的商业银行。

WARRENBUFFETT: Yeah, well, I think they’ve sees that we’ve bought Bank of America andwe’ve sold some Wells Fargo.沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：是的，我认为他们已经看到我们购买了美国银行，并且出售了一些富国银行。

Well,banking is a good business if you don’t do dumb things on the asset side. Imean, basically. And, it’s a business that the banks we own earn between-- thecommercial banks earn between 12% and 16% or so on Net tangible assets. That’sa good business.

好吧，如果您不做资产方面的愚蠢事情，银行业务就是好生意。 我的意思是，基本上，而且，这是我们拥有的银行所能赚到的业务-商业银行的有形净资产在12％到16％之间。这是一个好生意。

It’sa fantastic business against the long-term bond, you know, at 2%. If you have achoice between a 2% instrument and a 12% instrument, which one’s going to winover time?

对于2％的长期债券而言，这是一项了不起的生意。 如果您在2％的工具和12％的工具之间进行选择，那么随着时间的流逝，哪个会赢？

So,if you asked me whether I think banks are going to go down when they only earn3% or 4% on tangible assets, I don’t think that will happen.

因此，如果您问我，我认为银行是否会跌到：从有形资产收益率仅达到3％或4％吗？我不认为那会发生。

The question is really whether they do something massively dumb. I mean, whichperiodically a number of banks have done. And I feel very good about the bankswe own. They’re very attractive compared to most other securities I see.

问题实际上是他们是否做了大量愚蠢的事情。我的意思是，一些银行定期这样做。 我对我们拥有的银行感到非常满意。与我看到的大多数其他证券相比，它们非常有吸引力。

And,most of them are buying-- Bank of America’s buying-- a lot of stock every year.So, our ownership of the Bank of America this year probably will go up 7% or 8%without us spending a dime. I’d like to own any business-- any good businesswhere my ownership goes up 7% or 8% every year without me spending any moneyand on top of it, I get a dividend. So, they’re very attractive, both againstinterest rates and against-- or against bonds and against other stocks in myview.

而且，其中大多数都在购买-美国银行在购买-每年都有大量股票。因此，如果不花一毛钱，我们今年对美国银行的所有权可能会上升7％或8％。我想拥有任何公司-任何一家我的拥有权每年增长7％或8％的好生意，而我却不花任何钱，除此之外，我还能得到红利。因此，在我看来，无论是针对利率还是针对债券或其他股票，它们都非常具有吸引力。

Andthey were ignored, which is a total disaster. And look at the consequences. So,two or three years later, who’s paying? The shareholders are paying forsomething that didn’t do any good whatsoever.

他们被忽略了，这完全是一场灾难，并且是一系列事件后果。那么，两三年后，谁在付出代价呐？股东们为那些没有任何好处的东西付出了代价。（注：巴神的卖出，很坚决，这是银行基本面发生重大变化！）

【谈：低利率与银行】 but the banks are going tomake more money if there are higher rates with a steeper curve. The curve makes– is more important than there was the ten year versus short-term rates. 如果利率更高且曲线更陡峭，银行将赚更多的钱，曲线使–比十年期利率和短期利率更为重要。 Around the world, if youlook in the U.K. or Europe or Japan even lower rates have made it pretty toughfor banks. The returns on equity are not as high. And they have to use more leverageto even get the same returns and I don’t like that as well. 在全球范围内，如果您将目光投向英国，欧洲或日本，甚至更低的利率也使银行很难。股本回报率不高。他们必须利用更多的杠杆才能获得相同的回报，我也不喜欢这样。（注：这里的利率曲线是什么意思？利率增速更重要。。。）

【谈负利率】And well, interest rates are the basis of all value. I mean, youknow, if you knew interest rates we’re going to be zero for 100 years you wouldthink 1% was a great rate of return. 而且，利率是所有价值的基础。我的意思是，您知道，如果您知道利率，我们将在100年内将其设为零，那么您会认为1％是高回报率。And we don’t know the answer, central banks don’t know the answer.All we know is that it’s been useful in stimulating things, and particularlyasset prices now。而且我们不知道答案，中央银行也不知道答案。我们所知道的是，它对刺激事物特别是现在的资产价格非常有用。（注：巴菲特都不知道答案，就不要去研究啦！）

【谈：负利率与保险公司】WARREN BUFFETT: It’s bad for insurance companies. But it’s good forstocks. 这对保险公司不利。但这对股票有好处。Well, the ones that reallyget hurt on it are either life or annuity companies that have promised returns.Property casualty business doesn’t promise returns.嗯，真正受到伤害的是那些承诺回报的寿险公司或年金公司。财产伤亡业务不保证回报。（注：特别是寿险公司，不能碰，太复杂！怪不得，巴菲特坚决回避。。。）

【谈：企业集团conglomerates】 They wanted to have theirstocks up and put out stories to do it so they could issue more stock. Theywere kind of chain-letter arrangements. There have been a lot of badconglomerates. And probably disproportionately so compared to sort of honest toGod single-industry businesses over time. 他们希望印刷股票并发布故事来这样做，以便可以发行更多的股票。它们是一种连锁信件安排。有很多糟糕的企业集团，与长期以来对上帝诚实的单一行业企业相比，这可能不成比例。（注：企业集团玩的是，讲故事，印刷股票，圈钱，周而复始。。。）

【回购股票buy back the shares】It’s hard to buy-- it’s harder to buy back Berkshire shares than,say, Bank of America-- is buying back their shares. Bank of America bought back8% or 9% of their stock last year. But it was easier for us to buy Apple stockeven though Apple itself was buying a lotta stock, than it is to buy Berkshire.I think the amount of speculation in Berkshire stock is relatively low comparedto most stocks. And s-- and so it’s-- well, we bought $5 billion worth lastyear. But that’s only 1% of the market cap. 沃伦·巴菲特（WARRENBUFFETT）：买进股票比买入美国银行股票要困难得多，比伯克希尔哈撒韦公司要回购股票要困难得多。美国银行去年回购了8％或9％的股票。但是，即使苹果自己购买了很多股票，我们购买苹果股票也比购买伯克希尔公司容易。伯克希尔股票的投机量相对较低。嗯，等等，去年我们买了50亿美元。但这只是市值的1％。而且-我会说，有很多公司，您一年可以相当轻松地购买公司4％或5％的股份，而又不会干扰市场。（注：显而易见，巴菲特的回购标准，其实是非常严苛的。）

【谈：苹果】I mean, we own 5.5 or a little over percent of Apple. It’s--probably the best business I know in the world. And we own 5.5% of it. And thatis a bigger commitment than we have in anything except insurance and therailroad. So it’s-- it’s our third-largest business. 我们拥有苹果公司5.5％的股份。我可能是世界上最好的企业。我们拥有其中的5.5％。这比我们在保险和铁路以外的任何事情上的承诺都更大。因此，这是我们的第三大业务。

The realquestion is-- you know, what is the degree of pervasiveness and strength ofthat product five or ten years from now. And I don’t think of Apple as a stock.I think it’s our third largest business. 真正的问题是-从现在起的五到十年内，该产品的普及程度和强度是多少？而且我不认为苹果是股票。我认为这是我们的第三大业务。（注：这个问题很大！产品普及度和强度。。。）

Ithink it’s a consumer product. it-- obviously, it’s a consumer product companythat uses technology. But-- it’s an incredible company. And-- I should’veappreciated it earlier. 我认为这是一种消费品。这是一家使用技术的消费品公司。但是，在伯克希尔，我们有很多产品使用的技术都是如此。但是-这是一家了不起的公司。而且-我应该早点赞赏。（注：a consumer product company that usestechnology.）

IBM’sa entirely different business than Apple. I mean, it-- I-- Apple doesn’tresemble IBM any more than it resembles-- but it resembles See’s Candy waymore. You know, we call them smart phones. If you go back and look at the oldtelephone, that was an incredible, useful product. But-- it-changed the world.And the smart phone-- is part of hundreds and hundreds of millions of people’slives in all aspects of their lives. They-- it’s used for-- has all kinds ofutility. It’s a consumer product.

WARREN BUFFETT：IBM与Apple完全不同。我的意思是，我-苹果与IBM的相似之处不多，但与See Candy的相似之处更多。您知道，我们称它们为智能手机。如果您回头看看旧电话，那将是一件了不起的实用产品，它改变了我母亲和我父亲的生活，它每天都在改变生活。而智能手机-是千百万人生活各个方面的一部分。它们（用于）具有各种用途。这是一种消费产品。（注：apple更像See Candy，如同旧电话，改变生活每一面。）

【谈：比特币，cryptocurrency】But cryptocurrencies basically have no value. And they don’t produceanything. It doesn’t reproduce. It doesn’t deliver. It can’t mail you a check.It can’t do anything. And what you hope is that somebody else comes along andpays you more money for it later on. But then that person’s got the problem.But in terms of value, you know, zero.

但是加密货币基本上没有价值。而且他们什么也不会产生。它不会复制。它没有交付。它无法寄给您支票。它什么也做不了。而您希望的是其他人会出现，并在以后支付您更多的钱。但是那个人遇到了问题。但是就价值而言，您知道零。Bitcoin has been used Ithink to move around a fair amount of money illegally. So the people that—我认为已经使用了比特币来非法转移大量资金。（注：别碰这玩意！）

【谈：买入ETF】WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, itwasn’t---me-- it wasn’t me or it wasn’t Todd or it wasn’t Ted. And-- it-- ithappened in some pension fund. And we have a few pension funds that aren’tactually managed by us. But I-- all I can tell you is that nobody that-- nobody that manages money atBerkshire is buying ETFs. Nor do I see any possibility that they will.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：是的，不是-我-不是我，不是托德，也不是泰德。而且-它-发生在一些养老基金中。而且我们还有一些实际上不是由我们管理的养老基金。但是我-我只能告诉你的是-没有人知道-在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司管理资金的人都没有购买ETF。我也看不到他们会有任何可能性。

【谈：零售与品牌】

Kroeger’s done a good job, butit’s in a very tough business. I mean, when you have--when you have-- Amazon and Walmart slugging it out and Costco taking a specialpart of it and everything, it’s a tough business. But-- they’ve done a goodjob. And one of our managers decided to buy that.

沃伦·巴菲特：这是其他人之一。而且-你知道，我-我知道克罗格。克罗格（Kroeger）-克罗格（Kroeger）做得很好，但是生意非常艰难。我的意思是，当您拥有时（当您拥有时），亚马逊和沃尔玛将其淘汰，而好市多（Costco）则将其中的一部分以及所有东西都纳入其中，这是一项艰巨的业务。但是-他们做得很好。我们的一位经理决定购买。（注：生意模式非常糟糕，连巴菲特都不碰，更何况我？）

WARRENBUFFETT: Brands are always going to be in a fight with the retailer. And itvaries by country enormously. It varies by product category. I would say thatthe retailer has gained ground against brands to some degree. But brands arestill terribly important. I mean, try – give me a $10 billion budget and ask meto bring out another Coca Cola that makes a dent in Coca Cola and I can’t doit.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：品牌总是会与零售商抗衡，而且因国家而异，它因产品类别而异。我要说的是，零售商在某种程度上已经击败了品牌。但是品牌仍然非常重要。我的意思是，尝试–给我一个100亿美元的预算，请我拿出另一只可口可乐，它使可口可乐陷于困境，但我做不到。（注：品牌与零售商之间的竞争，需要个案分析，可口可乐就打不到。。。。）

===== 以下摘要 ====

【谈：新冠病毒影响】

ifyou buy an apartment, a house, if you buy a business you’re gonna own it forten or 20 or 30 years. And the real question is is has the ten-year or 20-yearoutlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?

如果您购买公寓，房屋，如果您购买企业，那么您将拥有十年，二十年或三十年的所有权。真正的问题是，过去24小时或48小时美国企业的十年或20年前景是否发生变化？

There’salways trouble coming. Yeah, there was trouble coming in 1942 when I boughtthat first stock. All kinds of trouble. Phillipines were gonna fall prettysoon. there’s all kinds of trouble in 1949. There was trouble-- certainlytrouble in 2008 when I wrote an article for The New York Times. I said, “Trouble is coming.” But I said,“Buy stocks.”

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：总是有麻烦。是的，1942年我买入第一只股票时遇到了麻烦。各种各样的麻烦。菲律宾很快就会倒下。1949年有各种各样的麻烦。有麻烦-肯定是在2008年，当我为《纽约时报》撰写文章时遇到了麻烦。我说：“麻烦来了。” 但是我说：“买股票。”

Our--candy business is a wonderful business. But it loses money seven months out ofthe year. But the nice thing is Christmas comes every year.

我们的糖果业务是一项了不起的业务。但是它一年亏损七个月。但是好消息是圣诞节每年都会来。

WARRENBUFFETT: We’re buying businesses to own for 20 or 30 years. We buy them atwhole, we buy them in part. They’re called stocks when we buy in part. And wethink the 20- and 30-year outlook is not changed by coronavirus.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：我们要购买拥有20年或30年历史的企业。我们整体上购买它们，或部分购买。当我们部分购买时，它们被称为股票。我们认为，冠状病毒不会改变20年和30年的前景。

【谈：留存收益retainedearnings】

And,I mean, I think Darwin said if you found evidence that was contrary to what youalready believed write it down in 30 minutes or your mind will just block itout. I mean, people have a great resistance to new evidence.

我认为达尔文说，如果您发现证据与您早已相信的记录相反，那么在30分钟内将其写下来，否则您的想法只会阻止它。我的意思是，人们对新证据有很大的抵抗力。

Wedon’t get rich on our dividends that we receive. While we happy to receivethem. We get rich on-- the fact that the retained earnings are used to buildnew earning power, repurchase-- shares which increases your ownership in thecompany.And- Berkshire has retained earnings ever since westarted. That’s the only reason Berkshire is worth a lot more as we retainearnings.

我们所获得的股息并没有致富。虽然我们很高兴收到他们。我们受益于-保留收益用于建立新的盈利能力，回购-股份的事实，这增加了您在公司中的所有权。And- Berkshire自我们成立以来就一直保留收益。这是伯克希尔拥有更多价值的唯一原因，因为我们保留了收益。

【谈：航空公司】

WARRENBUFFETT: --we-- the-- our largest position is in Delta-- three of the fourpositions are mine. One of the positions is one of the other fellows-- the fourpositions. But we own a very roughly ten-- close to 10% of-- thefour largest airlines.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：-我们-我们最大的仓位是在达美航空-四个最大的航空公司中的三个是我的。其中一个公司是其他同伴之一，四个仓位。但是我们拥有大约四家最大的航空公司中的大约10%股份（接近10％）。（注：巴菲特可能是:看准生意模式和价格，但无法确定那个是最后的赢家，就用一个TOP4组合来投资，避免看错的风险。有点类似如今的银行投资组合？！）

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, for one thing, they’re regulated and-- there’s an interplay.I’ll just give you an example, not that we would be doing. But with Delta weown 18% of American Express and American Express is a bank holding company andbank holding companies have limits as to what they can do. And we’re a passiveholder of a bank holding company with American Express. But instead we own anairline that was tied up with them they’d have lots of arrangements. There’s-- a lot of complicationsbecause it’s--a regulated industry. Anytime you get in a regulatedindustry you-- have more complications and---- in transactions.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：嗯，一方面，它们受到管制，而且-有相互作用。我只是给你一个例子，而不是我们会做的。但是有了达美航空，我们拥有美国运通18％的股份，而美国运通则是一家银行控股公司，而银行控股公司对其业务能力有限制。而且，我们是美国运通银行控股公司的被动持有人。但是，相反，我们拥有一家与他们捆绑在一起的航空公司，因此他们会有很多安排。这是一个受管制的行业，因为它有很多复杂性。每当您进入一个受监管的行业时，您都会遇到更多的麻烦和交易。（注：受管制的行业很复杂，需要一个投资组合来应对各类风险。由此，机场资产是否也该如此？）

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, we – to go beyond 15% in any company we’d have to go in on – Imean, there’s a lotta rules as you increase your ownership. Obviously almostanything we own we like to own more of.

沃伦·布菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：好吧，我们–要超越任何一家必须继续经营的公司的15％–我的意思是，随着所有权的增加，有很多规定。显然，我们拥有的几乎所有东西都希望拥有更多。

【谈：富国银行Wells Fargo】确认：卖出WFC，买入BOA。

BECKYQUICK: “In the fourth quarter Berkshire sold 55 million shares of Wells Fargo.Should shareholders view this as a lack of confidence in the new CEO turnaroundplan? And what is Warren’s future outlook for Wells Fargo?”

“伯克希尔第四季度出售了5500万股富国银行股票。股东是否应该将此视为对新CEO轮换计划缺乏信心？沃伦对富国银行的未来展望如何？”

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, I won’t give him any advice specifically on Wells Fargo. Butit’s absolutely true that we’ve sold down our position. Some of it was solddown to avoid being over 10% because then you do have some filings with the Fedand so on, but—

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：好吧，我不会给他任何有关富国银行的建议。但是，我们已经卖掉了头寸，这是绝对正确的。其中一些被抛售以避免超过10％，因为那时您确实向美联储提交了一些文件，依此类推，但是-

WARRENBUFFETT: Yeah, we’ve sold – more than that.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：是的，我们已经卖出了更多。

WARRENBUFFETT: Yeah. That sounds right. And now we sold Wells Fargo in the fourthquarter and we sold earlier.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。听起来不错。现在，我们在第四季度出售了富国银行，我们更早出售了。

WARRENBUFFETT: Yeah, well, I think they’ve sees that we’ve bought Bank of America andwe’ve sold some Wells Fargo.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：是的，我认为他们已经看到我们购买了美国银行，并且出售了一些富国银行。

“请问沃伦，他对银行股的整体看法，尤其是对富国银行的看法。在过去的几个季度中，他已经出售了自己在富国银行（Wells Fargo）长期股权中近四分之一的股份。同样，在第四季度，他抛售了高盛三分之一的股票-高盛股票，尽管他仍然拥有超过750亿美元的银行股权。那么，您如何看待银行？今天不一定抛售，因为您不必每天查看。

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, banking isa good business if you don’t do dumb things on the asset side. I mean,basically. And, it’s a business that the banks we own earn between-- thecommercial banks earn between 12% and 16% or so on Net tangible assets. That’sa good business. It’s a fantastic business against the long-term bond, youknow, at 2%. If you have a choice between a 2% instrument and a 12%instrument, which one’s going to win over time? So, if you asked me whether Ithink banks are going to go down when they only earn 3% or 4% on tangibleassets, I don’t think that will happen. The question is really whether they do somethingmassively dumb. I mean, which periodically a number of banks have done. And Ifeel very good about the banks we own. They’re very attractive compared to mostother securities I see. And, most of them are buying-- Bank of America’sbuying-- a lot of stock every year. So, our ownership of the Bank of Americathis year probably will go up 7% or 8% without us spending a dime. I’d like to own any business--any good business where my ownership goes up 7% or 8% every year without mespending any money and on top of it, I get a dividend. So, they’re veryattractive, both against interest rates and against-- or against bonds andagainst other stocks in my view.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：好吧，如果您不做资产方面的愚蠢事情，银行业务就是好生意。我的意思是，基本上而且，这是我们拥有的银行所能赚到的业务-商业银行的有形净资产在12％到16％之间。那是好生意。对于2％的长期债券而言，这是一项了不起的业务。

如果您在2％的工具和12％的工具之间进行选择，那么随着时间的流逝，哪个赢了？因此，如果您问我，当银行仅从有形资产中赚取3％或4％时，我是否认为它们会倒闭，我认为这不会发生。问题实际上是他们是否做了大量愚蠢的事情。我的意思是，一些银行定期这样做。我对我们拥有的银行感到非常满意。与我看到的大多数其他证券相比，它们非常有吸引力。和，他们大多数都在购买-美国银行在购买-每年都有大量股票。因此，如果不花一毛钱，我们今年对美国银行的所有权可能会上升7％或8％。我想拥有任何一家公司-任何一家我的拥有权每年增长7％或8％的好生意，而我却不花任何钱，除此之外，我还能得到红利。因此，在我看来，无论是针对利率还是针对债券，其他股票，它们都非常具有吸引力。（注：巴菲特坚决看好“经营良好”的银行，对WFC的卖出是基于管理层在干蠢事：最愚蠢的激励措施。巴神的卖出，很坚决，值得模仿。）

BECKY QUICK：您偶尔说“他们做蠢事”。也许您是在谈论富国银行的丑闻？它刚刚在周五定居，一些监管机构正在对此进行调查，并以30亿美元的价格进行了投资指控。

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。

沃伦·巴菲特：我不知道答案。我知道他们已经付了30亿美元，因为这已经宣布了。我不知道还有什么突出的。但富国银行的经典，在一堂课上。我的搭档查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）–他-你知道，他说，“只要我们遇到问题，就立即发起攻击。” 他说：“一盎司的预防措施不值一磅。一盎司的预防值得大量的治愈。” 我们已经一次又一次地看到了。有趣的是，我-我一点也不知道细节，但最初的事情是一堆-整个假账。现在，我不知道如果您开设了数百万个伪造账户，您将根本无法从中赚钱。我不，股东没有赚钱。人们说：“嗯，

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：这是最愚蠢的激励措施-

Imean, somebody was getting paid so much per account. So-- and the practicespread because bad practices do spread if they’re allowed to spread. And they were ignored, which isa total disaster. And look at the consequences. So, two or three yearslater, who’s paying? The shareholders are paying for something that didn’t doany good whatsoever.

我的意思是，某人每个帐户的收入很高。因此，这种做法得以传播，因为如果允许不良做法蔓延，那么不良做法的确会蔓延。他们被忽略了，这完全是一场灾难，并且是一系列事件后果。那么，两三年后，谁在付出代价呐？股东们为那些没有任何好处的东西付出了代价。（注：巴神的卖出，很坚决，这是银行基本面发生重大变化！）

【谈：低利率与银行】

Anddoes the prolonged low-interest rate regime in the United State hurt theprospects of American banks like JPMorgan, etc.? And in such circumstances doIndian banks which have high return on equity look attractive to Mr. Buffett?”

美国长期的低利率制度是否会损害摩根大通（JPMorgan）等美国银行的前景？在这种情况下，拥有高股本回报率的印度银行对巴菲特而言是否具有吸引力？”

WARRENBUFFETT: Generally speaking, but there are a lot of other variables too – but the banks are going to makemore money if there are higher rates with a steeper curve. The curve makes – ismore important than there was the ten year versus short-term rates. Theymake more difference than the absolute level. But American banks have made verygood money with very low interest rates. Around the world, if you look in the U.K. orEurope or Japan even lower rates have made it pretty tough for banks. Thereturns on equity are not as high. And they have to use more leverage to evenget the same returns and I don’t like that as well.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：一般来说，但是还有许多其他变数–但是，如果利率更高且曲线更陡峭，银行将赚更多的钱。曲线使–比十年期利率和短期利率更为重要。它们比绝对水平具有更大的差异。但是美国银行以非常低的利率赚了很多钱。在全球范围内，如果您将目光投向英国，欧洲或日本，甚至更低的利率也使银行很难。股本回报率不高。他们必须利用更多的杠杆才能获得相同的回报，我也不喜欢这样。（注：这里的利率曲线是什么意思？利率增速更重要。。。）

WARRENBUFFETT: And think of it, the ten-year at 1.4% that means you’re paying 70times earnings for something that can’t increase its earnings for ten years.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：想想看，十年期的收益率为1.4％，这意味着您要为无法十年增加收益的事情支付70倍的收益。

【谈负利率】

WARRENBUFFETT: If somebody came to you with a stock and said, you know, “This is aterrific stock. It sells at 70 times earnings. The earnings can’t go up for tenyears,” you’d say, “Well, explain that to me again.” But no – we’ve never seena situation like this in the world. Literally. I mean, you can go back and readKeynes and you can read Adam Smith and you can read, you know, all the greatones. And they don’t talk about negative interest rate. It never crossed theirmind. Always supply and demand and all these marginal costs. But brilliant economists neverreally anticipated that you would have negative – you’ve got 13 trillion orsomething like that – worldwide at negative interest rates. And we don’tknow what that means. And we’ve got a lot of people that can speculate what itmeans. But ten years from now or fifteen years from now we’ll look back andsay, “Well, it was obvious what would happen with that, and we’ll see it.” Butit is not a normal situation. And well, interest rates are the basis of all value. I mean, you know,if you knew interest rates we’re going to be zero for 100 years you would think1% was a great rate of return. But you also would know if you boughtsomething was yielding 1% or that was what it paid and rates went to 8% you’dlose practically all your capital. So, it’s an enormous factor. And we don’t know the answer,central banks don’t know the answer. All we know is that it’s been useful instimulating things, and particularly asset prices now for ten years andwhat we thought was temporary in 2008 and ’09 in the way monetary policy tostimulate we’ve just put our foot on the gas even further. The whole world has.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：如果有人带着股票来找你，你会说：“这真是个了不起的股票。它的市盈率为70倍。你会说，“好吧，再给我解释一下。”这笔收入不能连续十年增长。但是，没有-我们从未在世界上看到过这样的情况。从字面上看。我的意思是，您可以回去阅读凯恩斯，也可以阅读亚当·史密斯，也可以阅读所有伟大的著作。他们没有谈论负利率。他们从来没有想过。始终保持供求关系以及所有这些边际成本。但是，出色的经济学家从未真正预期过您会在全球范围内以负利率遭受负面影响（您已经拥有13万亿美元左右）。而且我们不知道那意味着什么。我们有很多人可以推测其含义。但是从现在开始的十年后或从现在开始的十五年后，我们会回头说：“好吧，很明显会发生什么，我们会看到的。” 但这不是正常情况。而且，利率是所有价值的基础。我的意思是，您知道，如果您知道利率，我们将在100年内将其设为零，那么您会认为1％是高回报率。但是您也会知道，如果您购买的某产品的收益率为1％，或者那是它所支付的价格，而利率达到8％，您实际上会损失所有的资金。因此，这是一个巨大的因素。而且我们不知道答案，中央银行也不知道答案。我们所知道的是，它在刺激事物方面一直很有用，尤其是现在十年来的资产价格，以及我们认为在2008年和09年是暂时的，在刺激货币政策的方式上，我们进一步踩了油门。（注：负利率，巴菲特都没有答案。。。我干嘛操心？）

【负利率与保险公司】

WARRENBUFFETT: It’s bad for insurance companies. But it’s good for stocks.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：这对保险公司不利。但这对股票有好处。

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, the onesthat really get hurt on it are either life or annuity companies that havepromised returns. Property casualty business doesn’t promise returns. Itstill holds money, so it hurts them. But if you promise somebody an annuitythat’s clearly to pay them 3% or 4% and now you find that you’re reinvestingyour money at 1% or something, you know, you’re going to disappear.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：嗯，真正受到伤害的是那些承诺回报的寿险公司或年金公司。财产伤亡业务不保证回报。它仍然持有金钱，因此伤害了他们。但是，如果您向某人承诺年金显然是要付给他们3％或4％，现在您发现自己将钱以1％或更高的价格进行再投资，那么，您将消失。（注：这保险公司，特别是寿险公司，不能碰，太复杂！怪不得，巴菲特坚决回避。。。）

【谈：企业集团conglomerates】

WARRENBUFFETT: Well,conglomerates have had a bad name and for good reason over the years. Imean, I closed my partnership up at the end of the 1960s. And there was a run,a very abusive run in conglomerates where they played with numbers and they haddirty pooling as they call it of accounting. They wanted to have their stocks up and put out storiesto do it so they could issue more stock. They were kind of chain-letterarrangements. There have been a lot of bad conglomerates. And probablydisproportionately so compared to sort of honest to God single-industrybusinesses over time. We don’t think we’re that kind of a conglomerate.We’ve certainly never wanted to issue shares. We never touted shares. You know,it’s done for business reasons in our case. The interesting thing is, ofcourse, is the American public has been going wild in their enthusiasm forconglomerates in the last few years, if you think about it. I mean, it’s beenan incredibly popular area. But they call them index funds. You buy 500businesses—

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：多年来，企业集团的名字不好，而且有充分的理由。我的意思是，我在1960年代末结束了我的伙伴关系。

在集团公司中，有一个挤兑，一个非常恶毒的挤兑，他们用数字打牌，他们称之为会计的混帐。他们希望印刷股票并发布故事来这样做，以便可以发行更多的股票。它们是一种连锁信件安排。有很多糟糕的企业集团，与长期以来对上帝诚实的单一行业企业相比，这可能不成比例。我们认为我们不是那种集团。我们当然从来不想发行股票。我们从未吹捧过股票。您知道，在我们的案例中，这是出于商业原因。有趣的是，当然，如果您想一想，最近几年美国公众对企业集团的热情一直在疯狂。我的意思是，这是一个非常受欢迎的领域。但是他们称它们为指数基金。您购买500家企业-（注：企业集团玩的是，讲故事，印刷股票，圈钱，周而复始。。。）

【谈：伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在一年，三年，五年和十年的表现上均落后于标准普尔500指数。】

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, certainly being too big is part of it. And-- but I would saythis. During that same time, I mean, last year we achieved-- now, I don’tlike-- GAAP earnings very well, but we achieved the highest GAAP earnings ofany company in the world has ever achieved-- that’s investor owned. And we havethe highest net worth of any company in the world, investor owned. Any companyin the world. So, it-- Iwould say related to safety of principal over time-- I feel good about it.And I feel good about the fact that 99% of my money’s in it and that it will bethe source of all the philanthropic contributions that are made for 15 or adozen years after I die. So-- but I don’t think-- I do not think it will be inthe top 10% of stocks performing over the next 10 years. I don’t think it’ll bein the top 15% of stocks performing in the next 10 or 15 years. I also don’tthink it’ll be in the bottom 10% or 20% or 30%. So-- but our ability to have a huge edge over themarket generally with a $550 billion market value-- it’s just, it’ll be minor,but it’ll be done in a very, very safe manner.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：好吧，当然太大是其中的一部分。而且-但我会这样说。在同一时间，我的意思是，去年我们取得了非常不错的GAAP收益，但现在我不喜欢，但是我们实现了由投资者拥有的全球GAAP收益最高的公司。我们拥有投资者所拥有的世界上所有公司中最高的净资产。世界上任何一家公司。因此，我觉得这与长期安全性根本原则有关。我感到非常高兴的是，我的钱中有99％存入其中，而且这笔钱将成为我去世后15年或十几年所做的所有慈善捐款的来源。所以-但我不认为-我认为在接下来的10年中，它不会成为表现最佳的10％的股票。我认为在接下来的10或15年内，它不会成为表现最佳的15％的股票。我也不认为会降到最低10％或20％或30％。所以-但是我们有能力去保持5500亿美元的市值在市场上的巨大优势：只是，这是次要的，但它会以非常非常安全的方式完成。（注：看明白巴菲特的辩解：安全第一！很简单，都那么有钱啦，冒险战胜指数干嘛？）

WARRENBUFFETT: It could be. You know, on balance, I think we’ll do a little better.But it’ll be-- it’ll be minor. Depends on the kind of market we’re in. If we’re in a down market,we’re-- we’re going to beat it. I mean, it’s that simple. And sometimes we willbeat. The last 10 years. We haven’t been. But-- over 55 years, it’s worked.And-- and it-- it will continue working. But it-- it will not work atall like it did when we were working with $100 million or a billion dollars.There’s no question about that. But we’ve got good businesses, and we’re-- wewon’t be in the bottom quartile, I promise you that, over any long period oftime.

沃伦·巴菲特：可能是。总的来说，我想我们会做得更好。但这将是微小的。取决于我们所处的市场类型。如果我们处在低迷的市场中，那么我们将击败指数。我的意思是，就是这么简单，有时我们会击败。最近十年，我们没有击败指数。但是近55年来，它一直有效。而且-而且-它会继续有效。但是它-它根本无法像我们以1亿美元或10亿美元进行合作时那样工作。毫无疑问。但是我们拥有良好的业务，而且我们-在很长一段时间内我们都不会处于最底层的四分之一。（注：以最安全的方式投资，近10年没战胜指数，那又如何？熊市，必赢无疑。）

WARRENBUFFETT: Oh, we’lloutperform in a down market. But-- but that may not be particularlysatisfactory-- to people. But, no, we will because we have thesebusinesses that are making money and that-- I mean, we are-- we are not-- we’re geared somewhat away fromfull market participation in either direction. But that’s fine. We own--if you think about it, we’re 80-some-percent in equities. We may show $230 or$240 billion in equities, and that looks like we’re against our market cap,we’re 40%. But we own 100% of these other businesses. Those are equities, too.I mean, we own a railroad. And we-- we own insurance companies. And those are--those are equities. So,we’re about 80% in-- roughly in equities and about 20% in cash. And I’drather-- I’d rather have that 20% in other good businesses. But, that isto some extent a curse of size. And it’s to some extent the fact that, it’s very hard. If interestrates stay at this level, we’ll wish we’d-- for the next 10 or 20 years, we’llwish we’d been 125% in equities. I mean, it-- you know, equities are somuch cheaper than bonds, long bonds, that-- you know, some-- something willchange in a major way. I just don’t know what. And I want to be prepared foranything obviously.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：哦，我们在低迷的市场中表现会更好。但是-但这可能并不特别令人满意。但是，不，我们会的，因为我们拥有这些可以赚钱的业务，而且-我的意思是-我们不是-我们在某种程度上远离了全面市场参与的方向。但这很好。我们拥有-如果您考虑一下，我们的股票权益率达到80％。我们可能会显示230或2400亿美元的股票，这看起来像我们的市值在40％的水平。但是我们拥有这些其他业务的100％。这些也是股票。我的意思是，我们拥有铁路。我们拥有保险公司。这些是-这些是股票。因此，我们大约有80％的资金（大约是股票）和大约20％的现金。我宁愿-我宁愿将20％的股份用于其他良好的业务。但这在一定程度上是一种诅咒。在某种程度上，这是非常困难的事实。如果利率保持在此水平，我们希望在未来10或20年内，股票能达到125％。我的意思是，您知道，股票比债券和长期债券便宜得多，某些东西会发生重大变化。我就是不知道我显然想为任何事情做好准备。

【回购股票buy back the shares】

WARRENBUFFETT: It’s hard tobuy-- it’s harder to buy back Berkshire shares than, say, Bank of America-- isbuying back their shares. Bank of America bought back 8% or 9% of their stocklast year. And they can really do it without moving the market. I mean,Apple’s been buying back a ton of stock. They were buying stock at the sametime we were buying stock.But it was easier for us to buy Apple stock even though Apple itself was buyinga lotta stock, than it is to buy Berkshire. Berkeley is-- well, it’sheld by people that are really trying to keep it. They’re-- I think the amount ofspeculation in Berkshire stock is relatively low compared to most stocks. Ands-- and so it’s-- well, we bought $5 billion worth last year. But that’s only1% of the market cap. And-- I would say with a great many companies, youcan buy 4% or 5% of the company fairly easily a year without disturbing themarket. American Express has been buying it every year.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：买进股票比买入美国银行股票要困难得多，比伯克希尔哈撒韦公司要回购股票要困难得多。美国银行去年回购了8％或9％的股票。他们确实可以做到这一点，而无需移动市场。我的意思是，苹果一直在回购大量股票。他们在购买股票的同时购买股票。但是，即使苹果自己购买了很多股票，我们购买苹果股票也比购买伯克希尔公司容易。伯克利（Berkeley）确实是由真正试图保留它的人持有的。他们是-我认为与大多数股票相比，伯克希尔股票的投机量相对较低。嗯，等等，去年我们买了50亿美元。但这只是市值的1％。而且-我会说，有很多公司，您一年可以相当轻松地购买公司4％或5％的股份，而又不会干扰市场。美国运通每年都在购买它。

【谈：苹果】

Imean, we own 5.5 or a little over percent of Apple. It’s-- probably the bestbusiness I know in the world. And we own 5.5% of it. And that is a biggercommitment than we have in anything except insurance and the railroad. Soit’s-- it’s our third-largest business.

我们拥有苹果公司5.5％的股份。我可能是世界上最好的企业。我们拥有其中的5.5％。这比我们在保险和铁路以外的任何事情上的承诺都更大。因此，这是我们的第三大业务。

WARRENBUFFETT: No. I’m. I don’t know one thing more. I--see-- I may see Tim Cook atthe annual meeting. I see him in Sun Valley once a year. No, I don’t think-- Idon’t think I’ve placed a phone call to Tim Cook in two or three years. Or in--I-mean, it-- - no, I-- it-- all kinds of things are gonna happen to Apple inthe next ten years. Thereal question is-- you know, what is the degree of pervasiveness and strengthof that product five or ten years from now. And I don’t think of Apple as astock. I think it’s our third largest business.

沃伦·巴菲特：不，我是。我一无所知。我-见-我可能会在年度会议上见蒂姆·库克。我每年在太阳谷见他一次。不，我不认为-我认为我在两三年后都没有给蒂姆·库克打过电话。或者，我的意思是-不，我-未来十年，苹果将发生各种各样的事情。真正的问题是-从现在起的五到十年内，该产品的普及程度和强度是多少？而且我不认为苹果是股票。我认为这是我们的第三大业务。

WARRENBUFFETT: I think it’s aconsumer product. In fact, I think I said this on the program a coupleyears ago. I mean, it--obviously, it’s a consumer product company that uses technology. Butwe’ve got a lotta products that use technology that-- that-- at Berkshire. But-- it’s an incrediblecompany. And-- I should’ve appreciated it earlier.

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：我认为这是一种消费品。实际上，我想我是几年前在程序上说过的。我的意思是-显然，这是一家使用技术的消费品公司。但是，在伯克希尔，我们有很多产品使用的技术都是如此。但是-这是一家了不起的公司。而且-我应该早点赞赏。（注：对苹果的定义！）

WARRENBUFFETT: IBM’s a entirelydifferent business than Apple. I mean, it-- I-- Apple doesn’t resemble IBM anymore than it resembles-- but it resembles See’s Candy way more. I mean,it is a incredibly useful product for people. It grows more useful as thenumber of people-- are involved. I mean, it’s really interesting. You know, we call them smartphones. If you go back and look at the old telephone, that was an incredible, usefulproduct-- it changed my mother’s life and my dad’s l-- it changed livesin every day. And they-- took a long time to become pervasive. And it was veryexpensive initially. But--it-changed the world. And the smart phone-- is part of hundreds and hundreds ofmillions of people’s lives in all aspects of their lives. They-- it’s usedfor-- has all kinds of utility. It’s a consumer product.

WARREN BUFFETT：IBM与Apple完全不同。我的意思是，我-苹果与IBM的相似之处不多，但与See Candy的相似之处更多。我的意思是，它对人们来说是非常有用的产品。随着涉及人数的增加，它变得越来越有用。我的意思是，这真的很有趣。您知道，我们称它们为智能手机。如果您回头看看旧电话，那将是一件了不起的实用产品，它改变了我母亲和我父亲的生活，它每天都在改变生活。他们花了很长时间才变得无处不在。最初它非常昂贵。但是，它改变了世界。而智能手机-是千百万人生活各个方面的一部分。它们（用于）具有各种用途。这是一种消费产品。

【谈：比特币，cryptocurrency】

WARRENBUFFETT: Well, I would say this. When Justin and four friends came, theybehaved perfectly and we had a good three and a half hour dinner and the wholething was a very friendly exchange of ideas. But cryptocurrencies basically have no value. And theydon’t produce anything. So, you can look at your little ledger item forthe next 20 years and it says you’ve got X of this cryptocurrency or that. It doesn’t reproduce. It doesn’tdeliver. It can’t mail you a check. It can’t do anything.And what you hope is thatsomebody else comes along and pays you more money for it later on. But thenthat person’s got the problem. But in terms of value, you know, zero.

沃伦·巴菲特：好吧，我会这样说。当贾斯汀和四个朋友到来时，他们表现得很完美，我们共进了三个半小时的晚餐，整个过程是一次非常友好的想法交流。但是加密货币基本上没有价值。而且他们什么也不会产生。因此，您可以看一下未来20年的小分类帐项目，它说您有X等于该加密货币。它不会复制。它没有交付。它无法寄给您支票。它什么也做不了。而您希望的是其他人会出现，并在以后支付您更多的钱。但是那个人遇到了问题。但是就价值而言，您知道零。

WARRENBUFFETT: No, I do not own one – I don’t own any cryptocurrency. I never will.And, you know, in the end, I may start a Warren currency. You know, maybe I cancreate one and I’ll say there’s only going to be 21 million of them and you canhave a little ledger sheet from me and everything that says you have it. And you can have it after I diebut you can’t do anything with it except sell it to somebody else. And theinteresting thing, of course, is that Bitcoin’s been out there a long time.And people talked about how it would be used in various kinds of exchange. Butnone of our companies are doing business in Bitcoin or anything. Bitcoin has been used I think tomove around a fair amount of money illegally. So the people that—

沃伦·巴菲特（WARREN BUFFETT）：不，我不拥有一个-我不拥有任何加密货币。我永远不会而且，您知道，最终我可能会开始使用沃伦货币。您知道，也许我可以创建一个，而我会说只有2100万个，您可以从我这里得到一份小分类帐，所有显示您拥有的分类帐。我死后可以拥有它，但是除了卖给别人之外，您什么也做不了。当然，有趣的是，比特币已经存在很长时间了。人们讨论了如何将其用于各种交换中。但是，我们公司中没有一家以比特币或其他任何方式开展业务。我认为已经使用了比特币来非法转移大量资金。

【谈：零售与品牌】