作者：卡罗来纳州区域中心小夏 
一
前天，小夏在《独家| 告别插队！美国移民或将取消绿卡国别限制...》一文独家报道了美国国会有可能会取消（使移民来源多元化的）原籍国 配额制。
注：按照现行法律，美国国会对每一种移民类别都规定了年度最高限额。同时规定，任一国家不能使用超过移民类别总名额的7%。
在许多人还在质疑是不是小夏故弄玄虚的时候，该草案已经争取到了众议院过半数支持，并且已经有多家美国媒体跟进报道了。
据Center for Immigration Studies 网站 July 27, 2018 By David North报道， 在拨款法案中取消国别限制，这是一个惊人的进步！
原文链接：
https://cis.org/North/Alarming-Development-Country-Origin-Ceilings-Partly-Scrapped-Appropriations-Bill
二

以下是英文报道的原文，老规矩，英文好的自己阅读，小夏不做全文翻译。
《An Alarming Development – Country of Origin Ceilings Partly Scrapped in Appropriations Bill》
By David North on July 27, 2018
an alarming bit of news – generally ignored by the press – is that the country of origin ceilings that try to diversify our immigration streams may be scrapped by congressional action.
The House Appropriations Committee, while marking up the Department of Homeland Security spending bill this week, inserted language that would eliminate the long-standing requirement that no more than 7 percent of any group of employment-based immigrants could come from a single nation. The same provision would ease the 7 percent rule on family migration as well, but not eliminate it. (See the amendment here, on pp. 23-28; it was introduced last year as a stand-alone bill, H.R. 392.)
之所以有这种可能性，是因为众议院拨款委员会在上周为国土安全部的开支法案做标记时，还加入了一些取消长期以来关于原籍国配额限制（任何国家公民通过职业移民获得绿卡的量不能超过总配额的7%）的措辞，亲属移民中7%配额上限的政策也有可能会放宽，但不会被取消。
This came about because the chair of the DHS Appropriations Subcommittee, Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Kan.), managed to persuade his colleagues on the full committee that the current system is unfair to the Indian nationals whose visa applications, notably in the EB-2 category, are backlogged for several years. The provision would also speed up the delivery of EB-5 (immigrant investors) to Chinese applicants, while slowing down their arrival for people elsewhere in the world.
While this would not directly increase the number of legal immigrants overall, it would speed up the visa issuances for those from China, India, and to a much smaller degree, aliens from Vietnam and three Central American nations (in the EB-5 and EB- 4) categories, and slow them for everyone else.
国土安全部拨款小组委员会主席Kevin Yoder认为目前的制度对于那些排期长达多年（尤其是EB-2签证类别）的印度申请人来说不公平。
取消7%的原籍国配额制虽然不会直接增加合法移民的整体数量，但将有助于加快对中国、印度，以及越南等国EB-5和EB-4申请人的签证发放，同时减缓其他国家同类签证的发放速度。
The slowing of visa issuances to all nations then might lead to a successful effort to remove (or inflate) the current numerical ceilings, thus increasing overall immigration.
而所有国家签证发放速度的放缓也有可能会导致最终消除或提高目前的移民签证年度配额上限，从而增加整体移民数量。
The committee action would have to be confirmed by the whole House, and by the Senate, and signed into law by the president. If a provision gets as far along as this one has, there's a good chance it will make it all the way.
但众议院拨款委员会的这一提议必须得到整个众议院和参议院的批准，并由总统签署才能生效成为法律。
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has headed off such legislation in the past.
One likely result of the most recent committee action is that this language might find its way into one of those omnibus appropriation bills which, for all practical purposes, cannot be amended on the floor of either house.
三
David North的这篇报道虽然短小，但信息量很大，可以消除很多人的疑虑：
首先，众议院拨款委员会在国土安全部拨款法案修正案草案中取消国别限制，确有其事。不论能否成功，都是解决排期问题的有益尝试。
其次，在《独家| 告别插队！美国移民或将取消绿卡国别限制...》发出后，有些读者拿这两张图质疑我，他们认为取消国别限制的规定只适用于EB-2、EB-3，不适用于EB-5。
而美国媒体明确表述，取消国别限制也适用于EB-5，可以加速大陆EB-5排期！
The provision would also speed up the delivery of EB-5 (immigrant investors) to Chinese applicants, while slowing down their arrival for people elsewhere in the world.
那我们到底该相信谁呢？
我觉得有两点我们需要明确：
1、本次国土安全部拨款法案修正案的草案和国会众议院2017年10月1日327票表决通过的H.R.392法案有渊源，但是两个独立事件。把H.R.392对取消国别限制的规定移花接木到本次国土安全部拨款法案修正案是不合适的。
注：H.R.392法案后来被参议院Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)枪毙。
2、与H.R.392法案单独立法不同，本次草案最大的妙处就在于它是国土安全部拨款法案修正案的草案，如果仅是单独的移民草案，可能连提交、表决的机会都没有，但拨款法案是需要提交、表决的，否则，国土安全部就没有经费来源，只能停摆了。
故，本次国土安全部拨款法案修正案的草案能否最终成为法案是一回事，但取消国别限制的规定不仅适用于EB2、EB3，也适用于EB5，以及其他职业移民类别和亲属移民类别。
四

如今，美国参议院司法委员会主席Chuck Grassley依然在位，所以，小夏不敢预测参议院能否通过本次国土安全部拨款法案修正案的草案，也没有预测草案最终通过后，将如何加速大陆EB-5排期。

不过，美国媒体已经提前做了预测：
This amendment language may not get into a final bill, and David/I may be misreading the application to EB-5. But still, it’s important for the community to be educated about what the per-country limit means for EB-5. Based on data for EB-5 usage to date, here is what I calculate would happen to EB-5 visa availability if the per-country cap were removed as part of the FY2019 funding bill in September:
  • The October 2018 Visa Bulletin would have a 2014 cut-off date for the EB-5 category for all countries.
  • From 2019 to 2027, Department of State would be issuing EB-5 visas to people already in the backlog as of 2018, with no visas left for contemporary demand. Here are my estimates for when visas would be available to investors from various dates, based on data about I-526 filings from 2014 to 2018 and assumptions about denials/dropouts, family size, and visas already issued. Investors from all countries would be in the same line in order by priority date, without regard to nationality.
    • 2014 priority date: visa issued in 2019 (5-year wait)
    • 2015 priority date: visa issued in 2020/2021 (6-year wait)
    • 2016 priority date: visa issued in 2022/2023 (7-year wait)
    • 2017 priority date: visa issued in 2024/2025 (8-year wait)
    • 2018 priority date: visa issued in 2026/2027  (9-year wait)
    • 2019 priority date: visa issued in 2027/2028
  • China-born applicants would dominate the front of the line for EB-5 visas, having the oldest priority dates. They would get 99% of EB-5 visas in 2019, and gradually reduce to about 80% of visas by 2027.
Pros and Cons
  • Removing the per-country limit for EB-5 would give past China-born investors a predictable visa wait of 5 to 10 years, mostly just competing with each other for visas. That would be better than the current hard-to-predict wait of 5 years to infinity that depends on the wild card of future incoming non-China demand. Removing the per-country limit would give the China-born investor filing today an estimated 9+ year wait rather than the currently-estimated 15+ year wait. This is a benefit for China, but not a solution even for China. 9 years is preferable to 15 years, but this difference becomes irrelevant if both times are unacceptably long.
  • Removing the per-country limit for EB-5 would be a pure disaster for non-China investors. All non-Chinese with pending I-526 or pending visa applications would find themselves in line behind the tens of thousands of Chinese with older priority dates, with many-year visa waits for everyone. Today’s China-born investor suffers, but at least it’s from policy that was in place when he invested, and an excess China demand situation knowable at that time. The non-China investor already in the system would suffer retroactively from new policy that didn’t exist when he invested.
  • Lacking the per-country limit to protect new investment from a variety of countries, the EB-5 program would be essentially dead as regards new investment for the next ten years. Interest might revive by 2030, when the backlog that piled up in 2011-2018 is out of the system, leaving visas available for new applicants. (Or earlier, if many people in the system are shocked at finding their visa timeline unexpectedly expanded by 5-10 years, and try to exit.)
简单点来说，该文的作者认为，由于大陆排期长，优先日久，取消绿卡国别限制后，每年EB-5配额将大量分配给大陆申请者：2019年，99%的EB-5配额将分配给大陆申请者，到2027年逐渐降为80%。大陆EB-5排期将从目前的15年以上，降为9年左右的等待时间。
    • 2014 年优先日: 2019年拿到临时绿卡 (从递交申请到拿到绿卡，等待5年)
    • 2015 年优先日: 2020/2021年年拿到临时绿卡 (6年等待期)
    • 2016 年优先日: 2022/2023年拿到临时绿卡 (7年等待期)
    • 2017年优先日 : 2024/2025年拿到临时绿卡 (8年等待期)
    • 2018年优先日 : 2026/2027年拿到临时绿卡  (9年等待期)
    • 2019年优先日 :  2027/2028年拿到临时绿卡
与此同时，由于每年的EB-5配额被大量分配给优先日靠前的大陆申请者，取消绿卡国籍限制对其他国家的申请人来说，将是
灾难
，这些申请者将多等待若干年，
EB-5在这些国家将失去市场。
事实上，全球EB-5将冻结，直到2030年排期问题完全解决后，才能复苏。
五
可见，取消绿卡国别限制，确实有利于缓解大陆EB-5排期。
如果您也希望解决大陆EB-5排期，那么就应该努力促成该草案最终成为法案，而不是做无谓的冷嘲热讽。
据AAED（美国就业创造和经济发展联盟）代言人即执行主任AdnanJalil介绍，在我们为解决EB-5排期积极努力的时候，还有EB2、EB3说客在积极为解决高skill的排期而努力。
小夏估计，去年的H.R.392法案应该是他们努力的成果。其实早在2011年，犹他州的众议员沙费特兹(Jason Chaffetz)就提出“高技术移民公平法案”，并在众议院表决通过。
如今，至少7年多的时间过去了，印度人还在积极努力着，我们如果不改变一盘散沙的状态，又有什么能力要求EB-5朝着有利于大陆申请者的方向发展呢？！
在EB-5排期这个问题上，大陆申请者都在一条船上。都不愿出力划船，那就只能原地打转，甚至不进则退。
最后，小夏再次呼吁已经通过I-526的EB-5投资者赶快行动起来，加入到致力于解决EB-5排期的大联盟——AAED。目前排期诉讼已经有足够的资金能够维持到二审，EB-5大联盟还在筹建阶段，EB-5排期能否根除，在此一举。
详见《使命召唤:美国就业创造和经济发展联盟（一）| 美国移民频道讲座》
《AAED【2018年7月第一周工作要闻】》
《AAED【2018年7月第二周工作要闻】》
《AAED【2018年7月第三周工作要闻】》

声明：原创不易，转载请先联系我们，并注明  来源：美国移民频道（ID:USAgreencards），否则按照侵权处理。如觉得文章尚可，请帮助点赞转发，这是对小夏最好的鼓励！

长按下方图片，识别图中二维码，关注美国移民频道微信公众号
（ID:USAgreencards）
长按下方图片，识别图中二维码，关注北美华商会微信公众号（ID:beimeihuashanghui）
长按下方图片，识别图中二维码，关注美国一号通微信公众号
（ID:USAline）
更多海外投资、移民、留学等资讯，尽在北美华商会交流群
申请方法：请加小夏微信（xialuote5），注明您感兴趣的方向
继续阅读
阅读原文