一周内3次专访!CNBC对话比尔·盖茨:有效的冠状病毒疫苗至少需要18个月(附视频&摘要稿)
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4月10日微软创始人比尔·盖茨接受CNBC采访时表示,有一种名为RNA疫苗的技术。在2015年就认为是一种很有前景的流行病对抗技术,所以,如果RNA疫苗技术一切顺利,大约需要18个月。”但他也指出,这种疫苗并不完美,尤其是对老年人来说。疫苗对老年人的防疫效果始终是巨大的挑战。要知道,流感疫苗对老年人的效果就不太好。最大的好处来自于年轻人,他们会因为接种疫苗而不再传播疾病。
Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates told CNBC he thinks schools will be
able to resume in the fall but the U.S. economy won’t magically return to the
way it was before the coronavirus pandemic.
Governments around the world have ordered people to stay home, and elected
officials in Arizona, California, Georgia, Michigan, Washington and other states
have closed schools for the rest of the academic year.
“I do think school will be able to resume in the fall,” Gates said in an
interview with Becky Quick that aired on “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “But I don’t
think this school year there’s going to be any significant attendance. You know,
maybe in the summer, people will do something special. But that would be very
hard to do.”
Some schools have made it possible for students to take classes remotely over
the internet, but the Microsoft co-founder noted that many students don’t have
the computers or internet connections necessary for remote learning.
“Most of the private schools, they’re used to online, they’ve made sure all
their students have the device and the connectivity,” he added. “Different
school districts have decided some don’t do online learning because it would be
unjust in terms of the kids who don’t have access. And so that’s really a
dilemma. There are philanthropists — Ray Dalio, Jeff Bezos and many others — who
are trying to fill that gap, you know, get some devices and connectivity out
there.”
More broadly, the U.S. could open back up at the end of May, Gates said.
Before a vaccine is available, he said, countries that have had considerable
epidemics must figure out which activities should come back. He suggested that
people could probably return to manufacturing and construction, and hopefully
education.
“I don’t think going to big, say, public sports-type events, that the
economic benefit relative to the risks, that will work out until we’re back in
normal times,” he said.
Gates pointed to businesses in China coming back to life and activity
returning in South Korea, one of the first countries to face a surge in
coronavirus cases.
“How do you draw that line for that period that’s going to be longer than we
want it to be?” Gates said. “That — eventually, the government’s going to have
to take all the expert input and create a new regime for what’s going on that’s
extremely sensitive to how well it’s working through the quick-turnaround,
prioritized testing.”
He also suggested the economy would not magically revert to the way it was
before the pandemic, even once governments decide it’s safe to go back to
work.
“The behavior of people in terms of wanting to travel or go to events or even
go to a restaurant, it’s been utterly changed by the concerns about this
disease,” he said. “No one should think the government can wave a wand and all
of a sudden the economy is anything like it was before this happened. That
awaits either a miracle therapeutic that has an over 95% cure rate, or broad
usage of the vaccine.”
A vaccine could take 18 months
Gates stepped down last month from the board of Microsoft, which he
co-founded 45 years ago, to focus on his health-related work at the Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation. The organization has committed up to $100 million to
respond to coronavirus, Gates has backed a coronavirus test that people can
conduct on their own at home, and he has said he would help pay for factories
that can produce vaccines.
During the interview, Gates suggested therapeutic treatments for sick people
could begin to roll out in four to six months, but it would take at least 18
months to develop a safe and effective vaccine to prevent COVID-19.
“There’s an approach called RNA vaccine that people like Moderna, CureVac and
others are using, that in 2015 we’d identified as very promising for pandemics
and for other applications as well. And so if everything goes perfectly with the
RNA approach, we could actually beat the 18 months.”
But he noted that vaccines aren’t perfect, especially for older patients.
“We don’t want to create unrealistic expectations. The efficacy of vaccines
in older people is always a huge challenge. You know, it turns out the flu
vaccine isn’t that effective in elderly people. Most of the benefit comes from
younger people not spreading it because they’re vaccinated.”
He also dismissed the idea that there are a lot of asymptomatic coronavirus
cases spreading the disease. If that were true, COVID-19′s actual fatality rate
a lot lower than previously reported, as there would be many more undiagnosed
cases. But Gates doesn’t think that’s right.
“It’s very unlikely there’s a lot of asymptomatics who never become
symptomatic and yet they’re infecting people,” he said.
Looking at countries with widespread testing like Germany and China, Gates
says the fatality rate is around 1% or 1.2% assuming a “fully functioning health
system.”
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