特朗普全剧终：有权不可任性

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· 本文来源：亚当斯密经济学（刘胜军微财经出品）

如果美国总统利用职权调查一名反对党的总统提名人，将是美国史上最大的丑闻，恶劣程度甚于“水门事件”。

——特朗普（2016）

作者 | 刘胜军

通乌门

特朗普应该被判处死刑？

说这句话的是 2020 大选美国共和党总统候选人、马萨诸塞前州长 Bill Weld 。他的原话如下：

向外国政府施压，以达到干预和控制美国大选的目的，这再清楚不过了。此种行为不仅仅是削弱美国的民主制度，而是叛国！这是简单而纯粹的事实。根据美国法律，叛国处以死刑，这是唯一的结果。对特朗普而言，选择辞职并达成认罪协议，是一个不错的选择。

Bill Weld 指向的是特朗普最新的政治风波——“通乌门”。

• 多家美媒爆料说，特朗普曾在一次通话中，向乌克兰总统泽连斯基说了8 次，要乌克兰与自己的律师朱利安尼合作，调查拜登的儿子亨特。在拜登担任奥巴马政府副总统期间，他的儿子亨特曾在一家乌克兰天然气公司担任董事。2016 年，时任副总统拜登曾一再呼吁乌政府撤职一名参与调查该天然气公司的乌克兰检察官。

可怕的错误

这件事情的性质要多严重有多严重。

• 对美国而言，确保总统大选的公正有序，是美国政治制度的核心与灵魂。

• 当年尼克松黯然下台就是因为“水门事件”试图偷窃民主党内部竞选策略情报从而提高尼克松连任的胜算。

• 拜登是民主党呼声最高的候选人，特朗普将目标对准拜登，具有破坏大选的明显嫌疑。美国舆论普遍质疑这等于让外国政府危险地介入美国大选，就像 2016 年俄罗斯干涉美国大选一样。

• 即使拜登有错，他的错与特朗普也不在一个量级。拜登最多是涉嫌“以权谋私”，而特朗普则是意在干预大选的“叛国”。

特朗普为何犯如此低级错误？

问题是，特朗普为何会犯下这种低级错误？

• 特朗普表示，他知道包括“情报人员”在内，有很多人都在监听他的电话，不过他们这么做已经得到了自己的许可。

• 美国情报官员匿名向情报监察长阿特金森投诉特朗普“令人不安”的通话。

• 阿特金森认定这项投诉符合真实可信和紧急事件的法律要求，将其转交代理国家情报总监马奎尔。但马奎尔拒绝将其交给众议院，更引发质疑

特朗普犯下低级错误，应该是出于：1）过度自信，相信总统电话不会被泄密；2）“无知者无畏”的个性使然，挑战法律对他已是家常便饭。

更重要的是，美国的职业官员体系（deep state）对特朗普的不满由来已久，以 FBI 前局长科米为代表的“忠于国家而非特朗普”的职业官员，才是特朗普最可怕的敌人。

• 2019 年 2 月，FBI 前副局长麦凯布披露，在科米被解雇后，司法部官员讨论了是否有可能说服副总统及内阁成员援引宪法第 25 条修正案罢免特朗普。

• 2018 年 9 月，《纽约时报》刊登一篇自称为白宫高官的匿名信，以罕见的严词抨击特朗普，震惊美国政坛。这位自称是“抵抗”特朗普的一员而不是左派人士的作者说：“特朗普任命的许多人都发誓要尽其所能来保护我们的民主制度，同时阻挠特朗普更多的错误冲动，直到他下台。”

美国最不缺的就是“深喉”。

▲导致尼克松下台的“深喉”费尔特曾是 FBI 二把手

电话真相是什么？

特朗普的确是一个“言多必失”的人。

特朗普告诉记者，如果乌克兰不调查拜登和他的儿子，就会停止对乌克兰的援助：

我们支持一个国家。我们希望确保这个国家是诚实的。讨论腐败问题非常重要。如果你不讨论腐败，为什么要把钱给一个你认为腐败的国家？

泽连斯基（乌克兰新总统）当选的原因之一就是他要制止腐败。所以，偶尔和别人讨论腐败问题是非常重要的。我谈话的主要内容是祝贺和讨论腐败问题，所有的腐败都在发生，这主要是因为我们不希望我们的人像副总统拜登和他儿子那样，在乌克兰制造腐败。

还有纽约市前市长、特朗普的私人律师鲁迪·朱利亚尼，上周承认，他曾要求乌克兰调查亨特·拜登。

我一直觉得朱利亚尼很像传说中的“高级黑”。

特朗普总统曾被指在向乌克兰提供近 4 亿美元的军事援助问题上“步伐缓慢”。美国国会 8 月份批准了这项援助，但白宫直到上周才放行。

因此，合理推测是：特朗普的确在与乌克兰总统的电话中涉及了拜登。

9 月 23 日，美国众议院情报委员会、监督和改革委员会以及外交事务委员会联合致信白宫，要求其提供有关特朗普团队与乌克兰接触的相关文件。

拜登就在推特上发布声明批评特朗普“滥用权力、贬损国格没有底线”。同时，他还向这位美国总统“喊话”说，“至少，特朗普应该立即公布通话记录。这样以来，美国民众就可以自己做出判断，国家情报部门也可以立即将告密者公之于众。”

白宫显然不愿意交出通话记录，就像当年尼克松“宁死不屈”拒绝交出录音带一样。但特朗普比尼克松还危险，因为情报部门已经听到了他的电话内容。

迫于空前压力，特朗普宣布将于 9 月 25 日公布完整的与乌克兰总统通话记录。

Are you sure?

一个有趣的历史细节：当年尼克松坚信录音带证明自己是清白的。但所有总统助手听过后都得出完全相反的结论。真是当局者迷啊！

送给民主党的大礼包

民主党与特朗普早已“水火不容”。但在弹劾特朗普问题上，民主党一直不敢出手，主要是由于：

• 共和党控制参议院，弹劾胜算很小

• 司法部长巴尔的袒护

• 特别检察官穆勒的报告未能达到引爆弹劾的火爆效果

• 公众对弹劾的支持度不高

此时此刻，“通乌门”简直就是特朗普送给民主党的大礼包。

美国众议院情报委员会主席亚当希夫 22 日表示：

如果总统实际上拒绝给乌克兰军事援助，同时还恫吓外国领导人（泽连斯基），胁迫他做出非法勾当，并要求其在选举期间向特朗普的对手泼脏水，那么弹劾就是应对这种罪恶行为的唯一手段。

媒体也认同：

《纽约时报》称，民主党没能利用特朗普付色情明星封口费达到这个目的，没能成功给他扣上俄罗斯间谍的帽子，也没能用妨碍司法公正告倒他，那么这次也许就是他们需要的弹劾理由。

《大西洋月刊》说，如果这还够不上弹劾，那什么才能被弹劾呢？

美国“国会山”网站评论说，特朗普三年前还是共和党总统提名人时曾说，如果美国总统利用职权调查一名反对党的总统提名人，将是美国史上最大的丑闻，恶劣程度甚于“水门事件”。

to be or not to be？

特朗普还是太急了。他一直把拜登视为头号对手，但没必要太早出手——我靠，打错人了。

最新民调显示，沃伦与拜登支持度已经非常接近。万一最终代表民主党参选的是沃伦而非拜登，特朗普估计肠子都悔青了：不仅没有伤害对手，反而自己惹了大祸。

• 9 月 21 日，一份最新公布的美国民主党总统初选民调结果显示，联邦参议员沃伦在“关键州”爱荷华州的支持率为 22% ，首度超越前副总统拜登。

笔者认为，尽管共和党把持参议院导致弹劾成功非常困难，但民主党依然会发起弹劾：

• 决定是否弹劾的，不仅仅是党派之争。即使弹劾未必成功，但以弹劾来捍卫法律尊严依然是国会议员的“宪法职责所在”。民主党等待的不是弹劾胜率，而是弹劾的“足够正义的理由”。

• 如果民主党 2020 很有胜算，就不必弹劾，以免给大选添乱。但目前看来，特朗普连任是大概率事件，民主党应该通过弹劾“搏一把”。

• 弹劾成败问题，其实是“谋事在人，成事在天”。一旦弹劾开始，势必公布各种证言证物，公众舆论也会随之改变，进而倒逼共和党内部加剧分裂。要坚信，在事实面前，共和党参议员们是忠于国家而非特朗普的。——“梦想还是要有的，万一实现了呢？”。

• 只要法理证据确凿，弹劾特朗普对于民主党而言，就成了“捍卫法治”而非“党派倾轧”，民主党就没有什么后顾之忧。

▲弹劾尼克松

弹劾调查启动！

9 月 24 日，对弹劾特朗普一向谨慎有加的众议长佩洛西，终于出手了！佩洛西宣布正式启动弹劾调查：

总统将承担应有责任，没人可以凌驾于法律之上！总统的行为已经严重违背宪法！总统承认向乌克兰施压，其行为背叛了就职宣誓，背叛了国家安全，背叛了诚实大选！

特朗普推特回应弹劾：你能相信这一切吗？

有权不可任性！特朗普的总清算时刻已经来临！

God bless America!

【延伸阅读】

特朗普与泽连斯基通话记录双语版本来了，哪个总统麻烦会更大？

特朗普在通话中希望泽连斯基调查拜登和他的儿子。

Via CNN

因有人举报美国总统特朗普涉嫌在电话通话中寻求外国势力调查政敌，美国国会众议院24日启动对特朗普的弹劾调查。美国白宫25日公布特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基今年7月一次电话通话的记录。记录显示，这次电话于7月25日进行，持续约30分钟。

President Trump: Congratulations on a great victory. We all watched from the United States and you did a terrific job. The way you came from behind, somebody who wasn't given much of a chance, and you ended up winning easily. It's a fantastic achievement. Congratulations.

特朗普：恭喜你获得巨大胜利。我们在美国都在关注这次选举。你做的很棒。你一开始不占优势，也没有人觉得你会当选，但是你最后却轻松取胜。这是一次伟大的成就。恭喜你。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: You are absolutely right Mr. President. We did win big and we worked hard for this. We worked a lot but I would like to confess to you that I had an opportunity to learn from you. We used quite a few of your skills and knowledge and were able to use it as an example for our elections and yes it is true that these were unique elections. We were in a unique situation that we were able to achieve a unique success. I'm able to tell you the following: the first time, you called me to congratulate me when I won my presidential election, and the second time you are now calling me when my party won the parliamentary election. I think I should run more often so you can call me more often and we can talk over the phone more often.

泽连斯基：你说的没错，总统先生。为了这次的胜利我们付出了很多。我必须要承认我向你学习到了很多东西。我们使用了许多你的技巧和知识。尽管我们的国情很特殊，但是你的选举策略依然成为了我们的样板。我们在特殊的情况下取得了独一无二的胜利。我还要告诉你一件事，上一次我赢得了总统选举时您也打电话祝贺我，而这次是因为我党赢得了议会选举。我觉得我应该多参加几次选举，这样你就可以经常给我打电话，我们就可以经常交流了。

Trump: [laughter] That's a very good idea. I think your country is very happy about that.

特朗普：[笑]这主意不错。我觉得你的国家也会欢迎这个想法。

Zelensky: Well yes, to tell you the truth, we are trying to work hard because we wanted to drain the swamp here in our country. We brought in many, many new people. Not the old politicians, not the typical politicians, because we want to have a new format and a new type of government. You are a great teacher for us and in that.

泽连斯基：实话说，我最近在很努力地想要整肃既得利益集团。我们已经起用了很多新人。这些新人不是传统的老牌政治家。我们想要有一个全新的政府。在这件事情上你给我们树立了榜样。

Trump: Well it is very nice of you to say that. I will say that we do a lot for Ukraine. We spend a lot of effort and a lot of time. Much more than the European countries are doing and they should be helping you more than they are. Germany does almost nothing for you. All they do is talk and I think it's something that you should really ask them about. When I was speaking to Angela Merkel she talks Ukraine, but she doesn't do anything. A lot of the European countries are the same way so I think it's something you want to look at but the United States has been very very good to Ukraine. I wouldn't say that it's reciprocal necessarily because things are happening that are not good but the United States has been very very good to Ukraine.

特朗普：你太客气了。确实，我们在乌克兰问题上费了很多心思：我们花费了大把的时间和精力。这些付出和欧洲国家比起来多多了：他们理应更加用心地帮助乌克兰。德国基本什么也没为你们做。他们只会空谈。我觉得你应该向他们寻求更多的帮助。我跟默克尔讲话的时候她确实提过乌克兰，但是她什么实事也没做。许多别的欧洲国家也是这样的。我觉得你应该好好考虑一下这个问题。美国一直对乌克兰很好，我不一定要索取对等的回报，因为我明白你们国内有很多难题，但是无论如何美国一直给了乌克兰很多帮助。

Zelensky: Yes you are absolutely right. Not only 100%, but actually 1000% and I can tell you the following; I did talk to Angela Merkel and I did meet with her I also met and talked with Macron and I told them that they are not doing quite as much as they need to be doing on the issues with the sanctions. They are not enforcing the sanctions. They are not working as much as they should work for Ukraine. It turns out that even though logically, the European Union should be our biggest partner but technically the United States is a much bigger partner than the European Union and I'm very grateful to you for that because the United States is doing quite a lot for Ukraine. Much more than the European Union especially when we are talking about sanctions against the Russian Federation. I would also like to thank you for your great support in the area of defense. We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps specifically we are almost ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes.

泽连斯基：你说的太对了。我不是百分之百，而是百分之一千地同意。我有和默克尔面谈过。我也和马克龙谈过。我告诉他们，在有关（对俄罗斯）制裁的问题上他们还应该提供更多的协助。他们其实并没有执行制裁。他们理应尽更多力帮助乌克兰。逻辑上来讲，欧盟应该是我们最大的伙伴，但实际上美国成为了我们最大的伙伴。就这一点，请允许我向您致以最真诚的谢意。美国一直以来对乌克兰提供了莫大的帮助。这些帮助比欧盟所提供的多得多，特别是在制裁俄罗斯的问题上。我还想感谢您在国防问题上的协作。我们期待进一步的合作，我们已经基本准备好向美国购买标枪反坦克导弹。

Trump: I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike ... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it. There are a lot of things that went on, the whole situation. I think you're surrounding yourself with some of the same people. I would like to have the Attorney General call you or your people and I would like you to get to the bottom of it. As you said yesterday, that whole nonsense ended with a very poor performance by a man named Robert Mueller, an incompetent performance, but they say a lot of it started with Ukraine. Whatever you can do, it's very important that you do it if that's possible.

特朗普：我还要请你帮我一个忙。最近我们国家情况很复杂，相信乌克兰也明白这一切。我希望你能帮我调查清楚这一切到底是怎么回事，特别是关于乌克兰和CrowdStrike公司的部分……我觉得应该跟你们那边一个富豪有关……他们说相关的服务器在乌克兰境内。这整件事十分的混乱。我相信你也跟其中一些人有接触。我会让我们的司法部长和你进一步跟进来彻查这件事。你也看到了，这一切闹剧都以罗伯特•穆勒的惨淡表演收场。他们说这一切都源自乌克兰。不论你能做到哪一步，这个忙对我来说十分重要，请你无论如何尽力试试。

Zelensky: Yes it is very important for me and everything that you just mentioned earlier. For me as a President, it is very important and we are open for any future cooperation. We are ready to open a new page on cooperation in relations between the United States and Ukraine. For that purpose, I just recalled our ambassador from United States and he will be replaced by a very competent and very experienced ambassador who will work hard on making sure that our two nations are getting closer. I would also like and hope to see him having your trust and your confidence and have personal relations with you so we can cooperate even more. I will personally tell you that one of my assistants spoke with Mr. Giuliani just recently and we are hoping very much that Mr. Giuliani will be able to travel to Ukraine and we will meet once he comes to Ukraine. I just wanted to assure you once again that you have nobody but friends around us. I will make sure that I surround myself with the best and most experienced people. I also wanted to tell you that we are friends. We are great friends and you Mr. President have friends in our country so we can continue our strategic partnership. I also plan to surround myself with great people and in addition to that investigation, I guarantee as the President of Ukraine that all the investigations will be done openly and candidly. That I can assure you.

泽连斯基：是的，你刚才说的一切对我也非常重要。作为总统我们我们应该对一切未来的合作保持开放态度。我们已经准备好在美乌合作的的历史上书写新的篇章。我已经召回了我们现任的驻美大使。新任大使将会是一个非常有能力有经验的人。我相信新任大使可以促进美乌关系进一步发展。我也衷心希望新任大使能赢得您的信任，从而助力两国的合作。我还要亲自告诉您，我的助手刚刚和朱利安尼先生通了电话。我们准备邀请朱利安尼来访乌克兰与我见面。我想要再次向您保证我身边的都是您可以相信的人。我会在我身边组织起一个有经验和能力的团队。我还想向您重申我们是好朋友。我们希望您的朋友能遍布乌克兰，以此来深化两国的战略合作关系。我的团队会十分优秀。作为乌克兰总统，我向您保证，包括我们提到的调查之内的所有调查都会公开公正地完成。这点我可以向您保证。

Trump: Good because I heard you had a prosecutor who was very good and he was shut down and that's really unfair. A lot of people are talking about that, the way they shut your very good prosecutor down and you had some very bad people involved. Mr. Giuliani is a highly respected man. He was the mayor of New York City, a great mayor, and I would like him to call you. I will ask him to call you along with the Attorney General. Rudy very much knows what's happening and he is a very capable guy. If you could speak to him that would be great. The former ambassador from the United States, the woman was bad news and the people she was dealing with in the Ukraine were bad news so I just want to let you know that.The other thing, There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it...It sounds horrible to me.

特朗普：很好。我听说有一个很好的检察官受到了不公正的待遇被停职了。有很多人都在议论此事，可能有人恶意参与了停职事件。朱利安尼是一个很受尊敬的人。他曾经担任纽约市长。我会让朱利安尼加入你和总检察长的谈话。朱利安尼能力很强很清楚发生了什么。我乐见你可以和他沟通。还有一点我想让你知道。关于前任美国驻乌克兰大使，她和她在乌克兰接触的那些人都是一个大麻烦。我只是想让你知悉这件事。还有一件事。还有一件事。许多人都在议论拜登的儿子，说拜登阻止了对其儿子的起诉。很多人都想搞清楚是怎么回事，所以如果你能和司法部长做些什么那就太好了。拜登到处吹嘘说他阻止了起诉，你能否调查一下，这对我来说听起来太可怕了。

Zelensky: I wanted to tell you about the prosecutor. First of all I understand arid I'm knowledgeable about the situation. Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament; the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September. He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue. The issue of the investigation of the case is actually the issue of making sure to restore the honesty so we will take care of that and will work on the investigation of the case. On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we justice in our country with regard to the Ambassador to the United States from Ukraine as far as I recall her name was Ivanovicli. It was great that you were the first one who told me that she was a bad ambassador because I agree with you 100%. Her attitude towards me was far from the best as she admired the previous President and she was on his side. She would not accept me as a new President well enough.

泽连斯基：我想先回答一下您关于检察官的问题。我十分了解相关的情况。因为我们在议会赢得了绝对多数，下一任乌克兰总检察长一定会百分之百是我的人。我提名的总检察长会通过议会认可并在九月正式就职。新任总检察长将会调查这件事，特别是您刚才提到的那家公司。这个调查最重要的任务就是重建外界对我们的信任。我将会亲自跟进此事。如果你手上还有更多的信息请不吝提供给我们，这将对我们的调查很有帮助。我们会确保在国内伸张正义。至于前任美国驻乌克兰大使，我记得她的名字是伊万诺维奇。感谢您第一个告诉我她不是一个称职的大使。我百分之百同意你的看法。她对我的态度十分不好，因为她崇拜前总统。她不愿意接受我成为新任总统的事实。

Trump: Well, she's going to go through some things. I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it. I'm sure you will figure it out. I heard the prosecutor was treated very badly and he was a very fair prosecutor so good luck with everything. Your economy is going to get better and better I predict. You have a lot of assets. It's a great country. I have many Ukrainian friends, they're incredible people.

特朗普：她看来会遇到一些麻烦了。我会让朱利安尼和司法部长巴尔给你打电话。我们要一起搞清楚这件事。我相信你能调查清楚。我听说之前那个检察官受到了很差的对待。他是个好的检察官，我希望你一切顺利。我预测乌克兰的经济会不断变好。你们拥有很多的资源。这是一个伟大的国家。我有很多乌克兰朋友，他们都很棒。

Zelensky: I would like to tell you that I also have quite a few Ukrainian friends that live in the United States. Actually last time I traveled to the United States, I stated in New York near Central Park and I stayed at the Trump Tower. I will talk to them and I hope to see them again in the future. I also wanted to thank you for your invitation to visit the United States, specifically Washington DC. On the other hand, I also wanted to ensure you that we will be very serious about the case and will work on the investigation. As to the economy, there is much potential for our two countries and one of the issues that is very important for Ukraine is energy independence. I believe we can be very successful and cooperating on energy independence with United States. We are already working on cooperation. We are buying American oil but I am very hopeful for a future meeting. We will have more time and more opportunities to discuss these opportunities and get to know each other better. I would like to thank you very much for your support.

泽连斯基：我在美国也有好几个乌克兰朋友。我上次去美国的时候住在纽约中央公园附近。我其实就住在特朗普大厦里。我会和他们保持联络，并在不久的将来再次拜访他们。我也想感谢您邀请我访问美国，特别是华盛顿特区。我向您保证我们会严肃跟进相关事件的调查。至于经济，我们两国还有很大的合作空间。现在乌克兰面临的最大问题就是能源独立。我们相信我们可以在这一领域和美国展开合作。我们已经在准备了：我们已经开始购买美国石油并希望在未来能够进一步开会讨论此事。我们还会有更多机会相互了解，增进合作。我十分感谢您的支持。

Trump: Good. Well., thank you very much and I appreciate that. I will tell Rudy and Attorney General Barr to call. Thank you. Whenever you would like to come to the White House, feel free to call. Give us a date and we'll work that out. I look forward to seeing you.

特朗普：很好，谢谢你。我会告诉朱利安尼和司法部长巴尔给你打电话的。谢谢。无论你什么时候想来白宫访问，给我打个电话就可以了。你提一个日期，我们可以想办法找时间见面。我很期待与你会见。

Zelensky: Thank you very much. I would be very happy to come and would be happy to meet with you personally and get to know you better. I am looking forward to our meeting and I would also like to invite you to visit Ukraine and come to the city of Kiev which is a beautiful city. We have a beautiful country which would welcome you. On the other hand, I believe that on September 1 we will be in Poland and we can meet in Poland hopefully. After that it might be a very good idea for you to travel to Ukraine. We can either take my plane and go to Ukraine or we can take your plane, which is probably much better than mine.

泽连斯基：非常感谢。我很高兴能够访美。我期待与您当面会见、增进了解。同时我也邀请您到访乌克兰和我们的首都基辅——这是一座很漂亮的城市。我们美丽的国家都欢迎您。另外，我们九月一日应该都会在波兰，但愿我们到时候有机会见上一面。我们可以坐我的飞机前往乌克兰，或者您的也行，我相信您的飞机比我的好很多。

Trump: Okay, we can work that out. I look forward to seeing you in Washington and maybe in Poland because I think we are going to be there at that time.

特朗普：我们会安排的。期待在华盛顿或者波兰和你见面。我们到时候应该都会在波兰。

Zelensky: Thank you very much Mr. President.

泽连斯基：非常谢谢您，总统先生。

Trump: Congratulations on a fantastic job you've done. The whole world was watching. I'm not sure it was so much of an upset but congratulations.

特朗普：再次恭喜你的选举胜利。全世界都在关注。我不确定这是个冷门，但无论如何恭喜你。

Zelensky: Thank you Mr. President bye-bye.

泽连斯基：谢谢总统先生。再见。

来源：环球时报GlobalTimes

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