在认识到自然进化带来的更高层面的结果后,我开始发现,如果人们过度重视决策的直接结果而忽视后续和再后续的结果,他们就很难实现目标。这是因为人们对于直接结果和后续结果的期待通常是相反的,这会造成决策的重大错误。
例如,锻炼的直接结果是疼痛和花费的时间,这通常不受人们欢迎,但后续结果是更健康和更迷人的外形,这是令人向往的。同样地,美味的食物往往对你身体不好,反之亦然。
By recognizing the higher-level consequences nature optimizes for, I've come to see that people who overweight the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. This is becuase first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making.
For example, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time spent) are commonly considered undesirable, while the second0order consequences (better health and more attractive appearance) are desirable. Similarly, food that tastes good is often bad for you and vice versa.
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