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Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economyInflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain一段时间以来，世界经济似乎违反了地心引力。尽管实行了自上世纪80年代以来最快的货币紧缩，但在整个2023年美国的经济增长很可能是加速的。欧洲基本上已经摆脱了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖而没有发生经济灾难。全球通胀率下降，但失业率并未大幅上升，部分原因是到目前为止劳动力市场的降温主要是职位空缺减少而不是职位本身减少。随着2023年走到末尾，预测“软着陆”的乐观主义者正在取得胜利。FOR SOME time the world economy has seemed to defy gravity. Despite the fastest tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, America’s economic growth probably accelerated in 2023. Europe has mostly weaned itself off Russian gas without economic catastrophe. Global inflation has fallen without big surges in unemployment, in part because labour markets have so far cooled mainly by shedding job vacancies not jobs themselves. As the year ends, optimists who predicted a “soft landing” are taking victory laps.但世界经济在2024年仍将是脆弱的。尽管通胀会下降，但仍会维持在过高的水平。经济政策要兼顾各方依然叫人非常头痛。而即使美国能继续躲过经济衰退，世界其他地区看起来也很脆弱。Yet the world economy will remain fragile in 2024. Though inflation will be lower, it will remain too high. Economic policy still faces an excruciating balancing act. And even if America continues to dodge a recession, the rest of the world looks vulnerable.近期通胀下降让各国央行官员松了口气。但对于大型富裕经济体而言，除非发生经济衰退，否则通胀不太可能继续一路下滑至2%的目标。一方面，劳动力市场看起来仍然过热，名义工资增长过高。另一方面，经济将不得不应对石油价格上涨的影响。正当全球疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰带来的供应冲击似乎已经消散、供应链重新畅通、经济体完成再平衡之际，沙特阿拉伯等地减产使得每桶石油价格自夏季以来已经上涨了约三分之一。哈马斯袭击以色列又打断了油价下跌之路。由此导致的更昂贵的油价可能引发对“第二波”通胀的担忧。Inflation’s recent fall has been a relief to central bankers. But in big, rich economies it is unlikely to continue declining all the way to their 2% targets unless a recession strikes. For one thing, labour markets still look too hot and nominal wage growth too high. For another, economies will have to contend with the effects of more expensive oil. Just when it seemed as if the supply shocks of the pandemic era and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had dissipated, with supply chains unclogged and economies rebalanced, a barrel of oil has risen in price by about a third since the summer, thanks to production cuts in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. A price fall was halted by Hamas’s attack on Israel. The resulting pricier petrol could raise fears of a “second wave” of inflation.……【想要继续阅读本系列文章？】欢迎订阅《经济学人·商论》继续读完本文双语版2023年7月起订阅《经济学人·商论》不再继续免费赠送全年学习社区，若您想继续跟随官方译者全年英语进阶，精读原刊文章，欢迎联络商论小助理 ↓ 在校大学生与应届毕业生看过来！
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