Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed why the central bank 
held its benchmark federal-funds rate steady again
 during a press conference Wednesday following the Fed’s latest policy meeting. Powell said officials would continue to proceed carefully and make decisions meeting by meeting, as they aim to keep policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. Here is a transcript of his remarks.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在美联储最新政策会议后的周三新闻发布会上讨论了为什么美联储再次保持基准联邦基金利率稳定。鲍威尔表示，官员们将继续谨慎行事，并逐次会议做出决定，因为他们的目标是保持政策足够严格，以将通胀率降至央行2%的目标。以下是他的讲话记录。
JEROME H. POWELL: Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
JEROME H. POWELL：下午好。我和我的同事们仍然专注于我们的双重任务，即促进美国人民的最大就业和稳定的物价。
As we approach the end of the year, it’s natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual-mandate objectives. Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. As we look ahead to next year, I want to assure the American people that we’re fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
随着年底的临近，我们很自然地回顾在实现双重任务目标方面取得的进展。通货膨胀已从高位回落，而失业率却没有大幅增加。这是个非常好的消息。但通胀仍然过高，在降低通胀方面的持续进展尚不确定，前进的道路也不确定。展望明年，我想向美国人民保证，我们完全致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。恢复价格稳定对于实现持续强劲的劳动力市场条件至关重要，这将使所有人受益。
Since early last year, the FOMC has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We’ve raised our policy interest rate by five-and-a-quarter percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace. Our actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. And the full effects of our tightening likely have not yet been felt.
自去年初以来，联邦公开市场委员会大幅收紧了货币政策的立场。我们已将政策利率上调了5.4个百分点，并继续快速减持证券。我们的行动已将我们的政策利率推入限制性区域，这意味着紧缩的政策正在给经济活动和通胀带来下行压力。而我们收紧政策的全部影响可能尚未显现。
Today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. Given how far we have come along with the uncertainties and risks that we face, the committee is proceeding carefully. We will make decisions about the extent of any additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
今天，我们决定维持政策利率不变，并继续减持证券。鉴于我们在面临的不确定性和风险方面已经走了多远，委员会正在谨慎行事。我们将根据传入数据的整体性、不断变化的前景和风险的平衡，决定任何额外政策收紧的程度以及政策将保持限制性的时间。
I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
在简要回顾了经济发展之后，我将对货币政策进行更多讨论。
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2 ½ percent for the year as a whole, bolstered by strong consumer demand as well as improving supply conditions. After picking somewhat over the—up somewhat over the summer, activity in the housing sector has flattened out and remains well below the levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, committee participants revised up their assessments of GDP growth this year but expect growth to cool, with the median projection falling to 1.4 percent next year.
最近的指标表明，经济活动的增长已从第三季度的超高速增长大幅放缓。即便如此，在强劲的消费需求和供应状况改善的推动下，全年GDP仍有望增长约2 1/2%。在夏季有所回升之后，房地产行业的活动已经趋于平稳，仍远低于一年前的水平，这在很大程度上反映了抵押贷款利率的上升。更高的利率似乎也对企业固定投资造成压力。在我们的《经济预测摘要》中，委员会与会者上调了对今年GDP增长的评估，但预计增长将降温，明年预测中值将降至1.4%。
The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance. Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 204,000 jobs per month, a strong pace that is nevertheless below that seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate remains low, at 3.7 percent.
劳动力市场仍然紧张，但供需状况继续趋于平衡。在过去三个月中，就业岗位平均每月增加204,000个工作岗位，这一强劲的增长速度仍低于今年早些时候的水平。失业率仍然很低，为3.7%。
Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers. The labor-force participation rate has moved up since last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years, and immigration has returned to prepandemic levels. Nominal wage growth appears to be easing and job vacancies have declined. Although the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.
强劲的就业创造伴随着工人供应的增加。自去年以来，劳动力参与率有所上升，尤其是25至54岁的个人，移民人数已恢复到大流行前的水平。名义工资增长似乎正在放缓，职位空缺有所下降。尽管就业与工人之间的差距已经缩小，但劳动力需求仍然超过可用工人的供应。
FOMC participants expect the rebalancing in the labor market to continue, easing upward pressures on inflation. The median unemployment rate projection in the SEP rises somewhat, from 3.8 percent at the end of this year to 4.1 percent at the end of next year.
联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）与会者预计，劳动力市场的再平衡将继续，从而缓解通胀上行压力。SEP的失业率预测中值有所上升，从今年年底的3.8%上升到明年年底的4.1%。
Inflation has eased over the past year, but remains above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Based on the consumer-price index and other data, we estimate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in November and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.1 percent.
过去一年通胀有所放缓，但仍高于我们 2% 的长期目标。根据消费者价格指数和其他数据，我们估计 PCE 总价格在截至 11 月的 12 个月中上涨了 2.6%，并且排除波动较大的食品和能源类别，核心 PCE 价格上涨了 3.1%。
The lower inflation readings over the past several months are welcome, but we will need to see further evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
过去几个月较低的通胀数据值得欢迎，但我们需要看到进一步的证据来建立信心，相信通胀正在持续下降，实现我们的目标。正如对家庭、企业和预测者的广泛调查以及金融市场的措施所反映的那样，长期通胀预期似乎仍然受到良好锚定。
As is evident from the SEP, we anticipate that the process of getting inflation all the way to 2 percent will take some time. The median projection in the SEP is 2.8 percent this year, falls to 2.4 percent next year, and reaches 2 percent in 2026.
从 SEP 可以明显看出，我们预计通胀率一路升至 2% 的过程将需要一些时间。SEP 的预测中值今年为 2.8%，明年降至 2.4%，2026 年达到 2%。
The Fed’s monetary-policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher cost of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We’re highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.
美联储的货币政策行动以我们为美国人民促进就业最大化和物价稳定的使命为指导。我和我的同事们敏锐地意识到，高通胀会带来巨大的困难，因为它会削弱购买力，特别是对于那些最无力满足食品、住房和交通等必需品更高成本的人来说。我们高度关注高通胀给我们双方带来的风险，并坚定致力于将通胀率恢复到 2% 的目标。
As I noted earlier, since early last year we have raised our policy rate by 5¼ percentage points, and we have decreased our securities holdings by more than a trillion dollars. Our restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. The committee decided at today’s meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5¼ to 5½ percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings.
正如我之前指出的，自去年初以来，我们已将政策利率提高了 5.25 个百分点，并减少了超过 1 万亿美元的证券持有量。我们的限制性货币政策立场给经济活动和通胀带来下行压力。委员会在今天的会议上决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围维持在 5.5% 至 5.5%，并继续大幅减持证券。
While we believe that our policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic, and ongoing progress—sorry—ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured. We are prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate. We’re committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2 percent over time and to keeping policy restrictive until we’re confident that inflation is on a path to that objective.
虽然我们认为我们的政策利率可能已达到或接近本次紧缩周期的峰值，但自疫情爆发以来，经济在很多方面都令预测者感到惊讶，而且抱歉，我们无法确保实现 2% 通胀目标的持续进展。如果合适的话，我们准备进一步收紧政策。我们致力于实现充分限制性的货币政策立场，以便随着时间的推移将通货膨胀率持续降至 2%，并保持政策限制性，直到我们确信通货膨胀正在实现这一目标。
In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. While participants do not view it as likely to be appropriate to raise interest rates further, neither do they want to take the possibility off the table.
在我们的 SEP 中，FOMC 参与者根据每位参与者认为的未来最有可能的情况，写下了他们对联邦基金利率适当路径的个人评估。尽管参与者认为进一步加息不太可能是适当的，但他们也不想排除这种可能性。
If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of 2024, 3.6 percent at the end of 2025, and 2.9 percent at the end of 2026, still above the median longer-term rate. These projections are not a committee decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path of policy will adjust, as appropriate, to foster our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
如果经济按照预期发展，参与者中位数预计，2024 年底联邦基金利率的适当水平将为 4.6%，2025 年底为 3.6%，2026 年底为 2.9%，仍高于长期利率中位数。这些预测不是委员会的决定或计划。如果经济没有按预期发展，政策路径将酌情调整，以促进我们的最大就业和价格稳定目标。
In light of the uncertainties and risks and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
鉴于不确定性和风险以及我们已经取得的进展，委员会正在谨慎行事。我们将继续根据收到的数据总量及其对经济活动和通胀前景以及风险平衡的影响，逐次会议做出决定。
In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.
在确定可能适当的额外政策紧缩程度时，随着时间的推移，委员会将考虑货币政策的累积紧缩、货币政策影响经济活动和通胀的滞后性，以及经济和通货膨胀的影响。金融发展。
We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
我们仍然致力于将通胀率降至 2% 的目标，并保持长期通胀预期的良好锚定。恢复价格稳定对于实现长期就业最大化和价格稳定至关重要。
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
总而言之，我们了解我们的行为影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了我们的公共使命。我们美联储将竭尽全力实现就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。
Thank you. I look forward to your questions.
谢谢。我期待您的提问。
Q: Thank you. Chris Rugaber at Associated Press.
问：谢谢。美联社的克里斯·鲁加伯。
I wanted to ask, how should we interpret the addition of the word “any” before additional firming in the statement? I mean, does that mean that you’re pretty much done with rate hikes and the committee has shifted away from a tightening bias and toward a more neutral stance? Thank you.
我想问一下，在声明中额外确认之前添加的“任何”一词应该如何解释？我的意思是，这是否意味着加息已经基本结束，委员会已经从紧缩偏见转向更加中性的立场？谢谢。
MR. POWELL: So specifically on “any,” we do say that in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate, so any additional policy firming, that sense. So we added the word “any” as an acknowledgement that we believe that we are likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle.
鲍威尔：特别是在“任何”方面，我们确实说，在确定任何额外的政策紧缩的程度时可能是适当的，因此任何额外的政策紧缩都是这个意义上的。因此，我们添加了“任何”一词，以表明我们相信我们可能处于或接近本周期的峰值速率。
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美联储
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货币政策
鲍威尔
委员会