会议预告丨人大国发院“理论与政策”研讨会（第140-142期）

主  讲：谭小芬（北京航空航天大学）

主  持：方意（中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院）

时  间：2023年11月1日14:00-15:00

地  点：立德楼11层1133会议室

As documented by vast literature, foreign reserves can serve as a “buffer” to provide safer macro environment. In this paper, we provide evidence that firms in emerging economies and advanced economies perceive different signals from the accumulation of foreign reserves and change their subsequent innovation input accordingly. We construct the relative foreign reserve abundance index as Obstfeld et al. (2009) and finds that higher relative foreign reserves provide firms with higher innovation incentives in emerging economies, while having no such effects on firms’ innovation input in advanced economies. Mechanisms show that firms in industries with larger exposure to economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate fluctuation sensitivity, and higher external financial dependence will get a more positive signal from increasing foreign reserve abundance and increase their input in risky technological innovation activities when they perceive a “safer” macro environment. Further analysis shows that countercyclical adjustment policy using foreign reserves turns out to be a positive signal to firm innovation in emerging economies, while serves as a negative signal in advanced economies. The results survive a series of robustness checks - using instrumental variable regression, considering the potential effect of financial crisis, excluding other dollar countries.

谭小芬，北京航空航天大学蓝天计划卓越青年学者，金融学教授，博士生导师，美国哥伦比亚大学访问学者，中国社会科学院博士，主持国家社会科学基金重大项目、国家自然科学基金重点项目和教育部哲学社会科学后期资助重大项目，“教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划”入选者，北京市高等学校青年教学名师。研究领域为国际金融、宏观经济、金融风险，兼任中国金融40人论坛青年会员、中国金融学会理事、中国世界经济学会理事、中国社会科学院金融研究所学术委员会委员和职称评审委员会委员。在《经济研究》《管理科学学报》《世界经济》《中国工业经济》《金融研究》等期刊发表论文百余篇，出版专著6部，受邀参加过中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家发展和改革委员会、财政部、国家外汇管理局、国家开发银行研究院、德意志银行等政策咨询和研讨会议，提交的专题报告获得领导批示，多篇政策报告获得中央政策研究室、中央财经领导小组、中国社会科学院要报、教育部《智库专刊》等部门采纳使用。

主  讲：张劲帆（香港中文大学（深圳）经济管理学院）

主  持：方意（中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院）

时  间：2023年11月1日15:00-16:00

地  点：立德楼11层1133会议室

During the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2022), Chinese cities witnessed a contradiction: residential land and property prices surged even as transaction volumes plummeted. This divergence wasn’t due to supply shortages. Instead, we attribute it to active management of land and housing prices by local governments. Cities that had been more reliant on land sales and land-collateralized debt to fund their budgets before the pandemic experienced more substantial increases in land prices. Moreover, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) secured more land at elevated prices compared to other buyers. These findings underscore the significant roles local governments play in shaping real estate markets in China.

张劲帆，现任香港中文大学（深圳）经济管理学院副教授、博士项目主任、教育部青年长江学者，曾担任国际货币基金组织（IMF）经济学家、中国证监会中证金融研究院特聘研究员、中国人民银行研究局访问学者、长江商学院助理教授。张劲帆教授获耶鲁大学金融学博士，清华大学电子工程学博士，哈佛大学统计学硕士，清华大学电子工程学硕士，清华大学电子工程学学士，北京大学经济学双学位学士，在国内外顶级金融经济学学术期刊，包括 American Economic Review: Insights, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Finance和《金融研究》等杂志发表论文多篇。研究成果获得Review of Finance, Best Paper Award Finalist, 2022; WFA Annual Meeting Best Paper Award, 2011.

主  讲：杜涣程（中央财经大学金融学院）

主  持：方意（中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院）

时  间：2023年11月1日16：00-17：00

地  点：立德楼11层1133会议室

In Chinese culture, the digit 8 (4) is considered lucky (unlucky). We find that this numerological superstition has a significant impact across China’s stock, bond, foreign exchange, and commodity futures markets, affecting asset prices in both the primary and secondary markets. The superstition effect, i.e., asset prices ending in a lucky (unlucky) digit are more (less) often than what is expected by chance, is driven by both sophisticated investors’ reliance on superstition as an anchor to manage ambiguity and the overoptimism of unsophisticated investors. The superstition effect is only associated with overpricing for assets involving significant unsophisticated investors.

杜涣程，现任中央财经大学金融学院助理教授，曾担任国际货币基金组织（IMF）高级研究员、普林斯顿当代问题研究中心博士后研究员、香港中文大学经济管理学院博士后研究员。杜涣程教授获取美利坚大学经济学博士，所研究论文在 Journal of Financial Economic、《金融研究》等国内外顶级金融经济学期刊发表。

文稿来源：人大国发院

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