双语外刊阅读：以色列的痛苦和报复会以混乱还是稳定告终？

ility—and, one day, peace.

在长达数十年的僵持冲突中，在过去 20 年的腐朽中，人们可能很难相信真正的改变是可能的。但毫无疑问的是，哈马斯的屠杀袭击已经打破了以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的现状。未来几周将决定加沙战争是否会使中东陷入更深的混乱，还是尽管哈马斯犯下暴行，以色列仍能开始为地区稳定--终有一天实现和平--奠定基础。

. More than 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, many of those women and children, were murdered in their homes, on the street, in kibbutzim, at a music festival. Perhaps 150 more have been dragged to Gaza and shut in makeshift dungeons. Israel’s belief that it could indefinitely manage Palestinian hostility with money and air strikes crumpled early on October 7th, as the first Hamas bulldozer breached the security fence. Hamas has chosen mass murder and there is no going back.

由于哈马斯罪行的严重性，改变是不可避免的。1200 多名以色列人，其中大多数是平民，许多是妇女和儿童，在家中、在街上、在集体农场、在音乐节上被杀害。也许还有 150 人被拖到加沙，关在临时搭建的地牢里。10 月 7 日，当哈马斯的第一辆推土机突破安全围栏时，以色列认为它可以用金钱和空袭无限期地控制巴勒斯坦的敌对行动的信念早早破灭了。哈马斯选择了大规模屠杀，而且没有回头路可走。

Gaza is now awaiting a huge Israeli ground offensive. Its extent and success will determine the legacy of Hamas’s bloody assault. So will the fundamental choice that Israel’s politicians face after the worst catastrophe in their country’s history: do they unite or continue to exploit divisions for their own advantage? A third factor is the choices of Israel’s Middle Eastern neighbours, including Iran.

加沙现在正等待着以色列的大规模地面进攻。攻势的规模和成败将决定哈马斯血腥攻击的后果。以色列的政治家们在经历了国家历史上最严重的灾难之后所面临的根本选择也将如此：是团结一致，还是继续利用分歧为自己谋利？第三个因素是以色列的中东邻国，包括伊朗的选择。

In the weeks and months ahead Israel’s leaders carry a heavy responsibility to temper their understandable desire for fire and retribution with a hard-headed calculation about their country’s long-term interests and an unwavering respect for the rules of war. They left their people vulnerable by failing to foresee Hamas’s looming attack. They must not compound their error by failing to see ahead clearly for a second time.

在未来的几周和几个月里，以色列领导人肩负着沉重的责任，他们必须以对国家长远利益的冷静思考和对战争规则的坚定尊重来克制他们可以理解的开火和报复的欲望。他们没有预见到哈马斯迫在眉睫的攻击，从而使自己的人民处于弱势。他们决不能再犯同样的错误。

The need for vision begins with the imminent ground offensive. The Israel Defence Forces will rightly strike deep and hard at Hamas. But how deep and how hard? Israel will be tempted to unleash a spasm of briefly satisfying violence. Its defence minister has called Hamas fighters “human animals”, and announced a blockade of food, water and energy. Israeli officials—and President Joe Biden—have taken to comparing Hamas to Islamic State, or ISIS, an Islamist group that America vowed to eradicate.

需要有远见，首先是即将发动的地面攻势。以色列国防军将理所当然地对哈马斯进行深入而猛烈的打击。但要多深、多狠？以色列会受到诱惑，发动一场短暂满足的暴力行动。以色列国防部长称哈马斯战士为 "人兽"，并宣布封锁食物、水和能源。以色列官员和乔-拜登总统已开始将哈马斯与伊斯兰国（ISIS）相提并论，后者是一个美国发誓要铲除的伊斯兰组织。

That comparison is dangerous because, although Hamas deserves to be eradicated, achieving that goal in an enclave of 2m impoverished people with nowhere to flee will be impossible. A better comparison than ISIS is the 9/11 attacks in 2001, not just because of Israel’s agony, but also because America’s invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq show how steeply the costs of invasion mount—which is precisely Hamas’s calculation.

这种比较是危险的，因为尽管哈马斯理应被铲除，但在一个拥有 200 万贫困人口且无处可逃的飞地实现这一目标是不可能的。与伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国相比，2001 年的 "9-11 "袭击事件是更好的对比，这不仅是因为以色列的痛苦，还因为美国对阿富汗和伊拉克的入侵表明入侵的代价是多么高昂--这正是哈马斯的算盘。

At such a moment, self-restraint matters more than ever. It is in Israel’s interest, because street fighting is perilous and the hostages are defenceless. It makes the operation militarily sustainable and preserves international support. It avoids playing into the hands of foes who calculate that dead Palestinian women and children will further their cause. By clinging to its identity as a state that values human life, Israel becomes stronger.

在这种时刻，自我克制比以往任何时候都更重要。这符合以色列的利益，因为巷战危险重重，人质手无寸铁。它使行动在军事上可以持续，并保持国际支持。这样做可以避免落入敌人的圈套，因为他们认为巴勒斯坦妇女和儿童的死亡会促进他们的事业。通过坚持其作为一个珍视人类生命的国家的身份，以色列变得更加强大。

Restraint in the ground offensive depends on the choices of Israel’s politicians. Before the war they were tearing the country apart over a new law curbing the Supreme Court. For now grief and horror have brought people back together, but the left blames the far-right government of Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, for poisoning relations with the army and security services over the court, and neglecting security in Gaza because of a fixation with helping Jewish settlers in the West Bank. The right counters that calls for civil disobedience by senior officials opposed to Mr Netanyahu were a green light for Hamas.

地面进攻的克制取决于以色列政治家的选择。战前，他们曾因一项限制最高法院的新法律而导致国家四分五裂。但左派指责总理本雅明-内塔尼亚胡领导的极右翼政府在法院问题上毒化了与军队和安全部门的关系，并因一心帮助约旦河西岸的犹太定居者而忽视了加沙的安全。右翼反驳说，反对内塔尼亚胡先生的高级官员呼吁公民抗命是在为哈马斯开绿灯。

Mr Netanyahu must try to use his new war cabinet, announced this week, to unite Israel. Only by healing its own politics will the country be able to deal with Gaza. Mr Netanyahu will not want to help his most plausible rivals for office. Yet he was the man in charge when Hamas struck and his political career is ending. Having spent a lifetime seeking power at any price, he should finally put his country before himself.

内塔尼亚胡先生必须努力利用本周宣布的新战时内阁来团结以色列。只有治愈以色列自身的政治创伤，该国才能应对加沙问题。内塔尼亚胡先生不会愿意帮助他最有可能的竞选对手。然而，在哈马斯发动袭击时，他是负责人，而他的政治生涯即将结束。他一生都在不惜代价地谋求权力，他最终应该把国家放在自己之前。

A unified, centrist government would also be better placed to cope with the last set of challenges: the politics of the Middle East. Israel will be in grave peril if the war in Gaza spreads to its northern border with Lebanon, where tensions with Hizbullah, a formidably armed militia, are already growing ominously. The longer and bloodier the fighting in Gaza, the more Hizbullah will feel it must be seen to support its brethren. There is also a possibility of war with Iran, which has replaced Arab governments as the sponsor of Palestinian violence. Even Iran hawks in the West should not wish for that.

一个统一的中间派政府也将更有能力应对最后一系列挑战：中东政治。如果加沙的战火蔓延到以色列与黎巴嫩的北部边境，以色列将面临严重的危险，因为以色列与真主党--一个强大的武装民兵组织--的紧张关系已经在黎巴嫩日益加剧。加沙的战事时间越长、越血腥，真主党就越会觉得自己必须支持自己的兄弟。此外，还有可能与伊朗开战，因为伊朗已取代阿拉伯政府成为巴勒斯坦暴力的赞助者。即使是西方的伊朗鹰派也不希望如此。

A wider war would wreck the détente, built on the Abraham accords, between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and potentially Saudi Arabia. This grouping stands for a new Middle East that is pragmatic and focused on economic development rather than ideology. It is still inchoate, but it has the potential to become a force for moderation—and possibly even security.

更广泛的战争将破坏以色列与其阿拉伯邻国（包括巴林、摩洛哥、阿拉伯联合酋长国和潜在的沙特阿拉伯）在亚伯拉罕协议基础上建立起来的缓和关系。这个集团代表着一个务实、注重经济发展而非意识形态的新中东。它仍处于萌芽状态，但有可能成为一股温和的力量，甚至有可能成为一股安全的力量。

Simply by surviving, the Abraham accords could emerge from this crisis stronger. However, Hamas has shown that the signatories’ neglect of the Palestinians is a mistake. Israel and its Arab partners need a new, optimistic vision for Gaza and the West Bank, as an alternative to Iran’s cult of violence and killing.

亚伯拉罕协议》只要能幸存下来，就能从这场危机中变得更加强大。然而，哈马斯已经表明，签署方对巴勒斯坦人的忽视是一个错误。以色列及其阿拉伯伙伴需要一个新的、乐观的加沙和约旦河西岸愿景，以替代伊朗对暴力和杀戮的崇拜。

And that leads back to the fighting in Gaza. How does it end? Israel has no good options: occupation is unsustainable, a Hamas government is unacceptable; rule by its rival, Fatah, is untenable; an Arab peacekeeping force is unattainable; and a puppet government is unimaginable. If Israel destroys Hamas in Gaza and pulls out, who knows what destructive forces will fill the vacuum left behind?

这又回到了加沙的战事。如何结束？以色列没有好的选择：占领是不可持续的，哈马斯政府是不可接受的；其竞争对手法塔赫的统治是站不住脚的；阿拉伯维和部队是无法实现的；傀儡政府是不可想象的。如果以色列摧毁加沙的哈马斯并撤出，谁知道会有什么破坏性力量来填补留下的真空呢？

Israeli strategists must therefore start thinking about how to create the conditions for life alongside the Palestinians, however remote that seems today. All those elements may have a part: a short period of martial law in Gaza, a search for Palestinian leaders acceptable to both sides, and the good offices of Arab intermediaries. The only way to eradicate Hamas is for Israel and its Arab allies to create stability—and, one day, peace. ■

因此，以色列的战略家们必须开始考虑如何为与巴勒斯坦人共同生活创造条件，无论这在今天看来多么遥远。所有这些因素都有可能发挥作用：在加沙实行短期戒严、寻找双方都能接受的巴勒斯坦领导人以及阿拉伯中间人的斡旋。根除哈马斯的唯一途径是以色列及其阿拉伯盟友创造稳定--有朝一日，创造和平。■