双语外刊阅读：亚洲大部分地区未富先老

Even poor countries must start planning for an ageing population

即使是穷国也必须开始为人口老龄化制定计划

Consider Thailand. It is rapidly greying. In 2021 the share of Thais aged 65 or over hit 14%, a threshold that is often used to define an aged society. Soon Thailand will, like Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, see a dwindling supply of workers and, without extraordinary measures, flagging productivity and growth. Yet unlike Japan and the rest, Thailand, with a GDP per person of just $7,000 in 2021, is not a developed country. It has got old before it has got rich. When Japan had a similar portion of oldies, it was roughly five times richer than Thailand is today.

想想泰国。泰国正在迅速白发化。2021 年，65 岁或以上的泰国人占比将达到 14%，这一门槛通常被用来定义老龄化社会。很快，泰国就会像日本、韩国和大多数西方国家一样，出现劳动力供应减少的情况，如果不采取非常措施，生产力和经济增长都将下滑。然而，与日本和其他国家不同的是，2021 年人均国内生产总值仅为 7,000 美元的泰国并非发达国家。泰国未富先老。当日本也有类似比例的老年人时，它的富裕程度大约是今天泰国的五倍。

This is a big obstacle to Thailand’s future development. To protect its ageing citizens, many of whom are poor, Thailand’s government will have to spend more on health care and pensions. This will make it harder to invest in productivity-boosting skills and infrastructure. And where Thailand goes, many developing countries will follow. In Asia, where the problem is most advanced, Indonesia and the Philippines are also likely to become aged societies at lower income levels than was the case in the rich world. Sri Lanka, where the average income is a third lower than Thailand’s, will become aged by 2028.

这是泰国未来发展的一大障碍。为了保护老龄化的国民（其中许多是穷人），泰国政府将不得不在医疗保健和养老金方面投入更多。这将加大对提高生产力的技能和基础设施进行投资的难度。泰国走到哪里，许多发展中国家就会跟到哪里。在问题最严重的亚洲，印度尼西亚和菲律宾也有可能在收入水平低于富裕国家的情况下成为老龄化社会。斯里兰卡的平均收入比泰国低三分之一，到 2028 年也将进入老龄化社会。

Countries that age before growing rich have failed to seize their demographic opportunity, or aged out of it too rapidly, or suffered both problems. Between 1960 and 1996 (just before the Asian financial crisis), Thailand’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.5%. That was impressive, but below Japan’s double-digit clip in its boom years. Meanwhile, thanks to improving life expectancy and other factors, Thailand has aged fast. The share of oldsters in its population doubled, from 7% to 14%, in two decades. It took Japan 24 years to undergo the same change, America 72, and much of western Europe over a century.

未富先老的国家未能抓住人口机遇，或老化过快，或同时存在这两个问题。1960 年至 1996 年（亚洲金融危机爆发前夕），泰国的年均经济增长率为 7.5%。这一数字令人印象深刻，但低于日本经济繁荣时期两位数的增长速度。与此同时，由于预期寿命延长和其他因素，泰国老龄化速度加快。泰国老年人口的比例在 20 年内翻了一番，从 7% 增长到 14%。日本花了 24 年，美国花了 72 年，而西欧大部分国家则花了一个多世纪才经历了同样的变化。

Rapid ageing and slower growth are widespread in the developing world. Vietnamese are about half as rich as Thais and ageing even faster. India’s economy has been one of the world’s fastest-growing, yet not as fast as Thailand’s during its boom. In the decade to 2020 India grew at an average annual rate of 6.6%.

快速老龄化和增长放缓是发展中国家的普遍现象。越南人的富裕程度约为泰国人的一半，而且老龄化速度更快。印度一直是世界上经济增长最快的国家之一，但在经济繁荣时期却不如泰国。截至 2020 年的十年间，印度的年均增长率为 6.6%。

One conclusion is that countries with a working-age bulge need to wring more growth out of it. India may never have a better chance than the present. Under Narendra Modi it has a strong, pro-business government, which is likely to win re-election next year. There is a consensus on the measures, including privatisation and looser foreign-investment rules, that could raise its growth rate. Such reforms would help India take advantage of Western efforts to shift supply chains out of China. If India needs a cautionary tale to justify action, it need look no further than its own rapidly ageing southern states. In Kerala 17% of the population is 60 or older.

一个结论是，工作年龄人口激增的国家需要从中榨取更多的增长。印度可能永远不会有比现在更好的机会了。在纳伦德拉-莫迪（Narendra Modi）的领导下，印度拥有一个强大、亲商的政府，并有可能在明年赢得连任。各方对提高增长率的措施已达成共识，包括私有化和放宽外商投资规则。这些改革将有助于印度利用西方将供应链从中国转移出去的努力。如果印度需要一个警示性的故事来证明其行动的合理性，那么它只需看看自己迅速老龄化的南部各邦。在喀拉拉邦，17% 的人口年龄在 60 岁或以上。

Another conclusion is that developing countries need to start planning for old age earlier. They should reform their pension systems, including by raising retirement ages. They should nurture financial markets, providing options for long-term saving and health insurance. They should create conditions for well-regulated private social care. And they should try harder to increase female participation in the labour force; in India it is a wretched 24%, half the global average. Getting more women into jobs would extend the demographic dividend and help deal with the fact that women live longer than men, but tend to have more meagre savings and pensions, and so are vulnerable in old age.

另一个结论是，发展中国家需要更早地开始规划养老问题。它们应改革养老金制度，包括提高退休年龄。它们应培育金融市场，为长期储蓄和医疗保险提供选择。它们应为监管良好的私人社会护理创造条件。它们还应该更加努力地提高女性的劳动力参与率；在印度，女性的劳动力参与率只有可怜的 24%，是全球平均水平的一半。让更多的女性就业将扩大人口红利，并有助于解决女性寿命比男性长，但储蓄和养老金往往更少，因此在老年时容易受到伤害的问题。

Finally, developing countries should learn from the errors of rich ones by taking a pragmatic view of immigration. Hard as this can be politically, it is often the easiest way to extend the transition. Building sites in Bangkok already throng with illegal Burmese immigrants. By formalising them, Thai politicians could usher them into more productive roles.

最后，发展中国家应从富国的错误中吸取教训，以务实的态度对待移民问题。虽然这在政治上可能很困难，但往往是延长过渡期的最简单方法。曼谷的建筑工地已经挤满了缅甸非法移民。泰国的政治家们可以通过将他们正规化，让他们发挥更大的作用。

India provides a happier example of this. A continent-size country, its boom is fuelled by internal migration. Its last census, in 2011, counted 450m internal migrants. Many travel from the poor north to the more prosperous south and west, to seize new opportunities and, increasingly, to take up those being vacated by the south’s ageing workers. It is an inspiring illustration of what relatively unfettered labour markets can do—and a lesson for Japan, Thailand and governments everywhere. ■

印度就是一个很好的例子。印度是一个幅员辽阔的国家，国内移民推动了印度的经济繁荣。在 2011 年进行的最近一次人口普查中，印度统计了 4.5 亿国内移民。许多人从贫穷的北方来到更繁荣的南方和西部，抓住新的机遇，并越来越多地利用南方老龄化工人的空缺。这是一个鼓舞人心的例子，说明了相对不受约束的劳动力市场可以做些什么，也为日本、泰国和各地政府上了一课。■