I turned 67 in October. It’s hard to believe I’m that old—in America, most people my age are retired!
今年十月我都已经67岁了。很难相信我已经这么老了——在美国，大部分我这个年龄的人已经退休了！
But I won’t be slowing down anytime soon. I’m still going full speed on the project I began more than two decades ago, which is to give the vast majority of my resources back to society. Although I don’t care where I rank on the list of the world’s richest people, I do know that as I succeed in giving, I will drop down and eventually off the list altogether.
但在可见的未来，我不会放慢脚步。我仍在全速推进二十多年前启动的项目，即把我的绝大部分资源回馈给社会。虽然我并不在乎自己在世界富豪榜上的排名，我知道当我在慈善方面取得成功，我的排名就会不断下降，并且最终从榜单消失。
I’ve always viewed my philanthropy as a way to help reduce the awful inequities I see around the world. I also feel a responsibility to give my wealth back to society in ways that do the most good for the most people. But I started looking at the world through a new lens recently—when my older daughter gave me the incredible news that I’ll become a grandfather next year.
我一直将我的慈善视作一种途径，用以帮助减少我在世界各地所看到的可怕的不平等现象。我也感到有责任将我的财富以对大多数人最有益的方式回馈给社会。不过，最近我开始通过一个新的视角来看待这个世界——当我的大女儿告诉我一个天大的好消息，那就是明年我要当祖父了。
Simply typing that phrase, “I’ll become a grandfather next year,” makes me emotional. And the thought gives a new dimension to my work. When I think about the world my grandchild will be born into, I’m more inspired than ever to help everyone’s children and grandchildren have a chance to survive and thrive.
仅仅是打出“明年我要当祖父了”这句话，就使我情绪激动。而这种想法给我的工作带来了新的维度。当我想到我的外孙或外孙女将要诞生在的世界，我比以往任何时候都更有动力去帮助每个人的子孙后代能有机会去生存和发展。
This is a long-term project that requires patience; in the effort to make the world more equitable, success is measured in years and decades. Maybe age makes it easier to understand this. When I was in my twenties, I didn’t think that anyone my grandparents’ age had anything useful to offer the world at large. As I get older, though, I see how wrong I was.
这是一个需要耐心的长期项目；在使世界更加公平的事业中，成功是以几年甚至几十年的尺度来衡量的。也许年龄使人更容易理解这一点。当我20来岁时，我不觉得我祖父母这个年龄段的人能对整个世界做出有什么有用的贡献。不过随着我年龄的增长，我发现我错得离谱。
I do almost all of my work through the Gates Foundation, though most of my efforts on climate and clean energy are housed at Breakthrough Energy and I fund research on Alzheimer’s disease separately. Global health is a major focus for the foundation because it’s the worst inequity on the planet and it’s a solvable problem. More than two decades ago, Melinda and I were shocked to learn how little money and effort were put into saving the lives of children in poor countries, and we thought the world should do more.
虽然我在气候和清洁能源方面的大部分努力都集中在突破能源，而且我还另外资助了阿尔兹海默症的研究，但我几乎所有的工作都是通过盖茨基金会完成的。全球健康是基金会的主要关注点，因为这是地球上最严重的不平等，也是一个可以攻克的问题。二十多年前，梅琳达和我震惊地了解到，用于拯救贫穷国家儿童生命的资金和努力是如此之少，我们认为世界应该做得更多一些。
The world has been doing more—and it shows. Since 2000, when the foundation began, the childhood death rate has been cut by half.
这个世界已经做得多一些了——而且它展示了这一点。自2000年基金会成立以来，儿童死亡率已经减少了一半。
Tragically, recent events are slowing and even reversing this progress. The COVID-19 pandemic caused millions of deaths and severely hampered efforts to immunize children. Russia’s war on Ukraine is inflicting terrible suffering in Eastern Europe and driving up food and energy prices around the world. Rich countries are cutting foreign aid, partly because they need to spend more on the military, electricity subsidies, and support for refugees displaced by the war. Inflation is rising and economic growth is slowing. Climate change is leading to more frequent extreme weather. And in the United States, our politics are more polarized than ever. In my lifetime, the only other period that felt this turbulent was the 1960s.
可悲的是，最近的事件在减缓甚至逆转这一进展。新冠疫情大流行造成了数百万人死亡，严重阻碍了为儿童提供免疫接种的努力。俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争正在东欧造成可怕的灾难，并使世界各地的食品和能源价格上涨。富裕国家正在削减对外援助，部分原因是他们需要在军事、电力补贴和支持因战争而流离失所的难民方面花费更多。通货膨胀正在上升，经济增长正在放缓。气候变化正在导致更频繁的极端天气。而在美国，我们的政治比以往更加极化。在我的一生中，唯一可与之相比的动荡时期是还是1960年代。
左图：像飓风伊恩这样的极端天气事件正变得愈发频繁并造成更多损害。（Giorgio VIERA/AFP）右图：俄乌战争已在东欧乃至撒哈拉以南非洲各地造成苦难。（Andre Luis Alves/Anadolu Agency）The people who were already worst off are bearing most of the pain of these setbacks, and the worst thing we could do is retreat from supporting them. I’m stubborn in my belief that with the right innovations, we can continue to reduce inequity in spite of the headwinds. Through the foundation and my personal work, I am trying to make sure that, even with everything else going on, the world continues to do more to help the poorest. Getting more support for this is a key goal. 那些原本就处境最差的人正在承受这些倒退所带来的大部分痛苦，而最糟糕的事情就是在支持他们方面退缩。我固执地认为，通过正确的创新，我们可以逆势而上，减少不平等。通过基金会和我个人的工作，我正努力确保即使面临种种困难，这个世界也会继续做更多的事情来帮助最贫穷的人。为此获得更多支持是一个关键目标。
For its part, the Gates Foundation is putting much more money into the areas where we work. In July we announced that we intend to increase our spending by half, from nearly $6 billion per year before COVID to $9 billion per year by 2026. To help make this spending increase possible, I transferred $20 billion to the foundation’s endowment. We know we will keep the same priorities, and in our recent strategy reviews, we allocated about half of the increase. We will allocate the other half in future reviews so we can stay flexible, directing the additional money to the areas of greatest need over the next couple of years.
就其本身而言，盖茨基金会正在向我们工作的领域投入更多资金。7月，我们宣布计划将我们的支出增加一半，从疫情前的每年近60亿美元增加至到2026年前的每年90亿美元。为了使这一支出增长成为可能，我向基金会转入了200亿美元。我知道我们会保持一直以来的优先事项，在最近的战略回顾中，我们已经分配了大约一半新增资金。我们将在未来的回顾中分配另一半，以便能够保持灵活性，在未来几年将额外的资金用于最需要的领域。
Our secret weapon, which should not be secret at all, is the incredible generosity of Warren Buffett. Since 2006, his gifts to the foundation have totaled about $45 billion, if you count the appreciation of Berkshire Hathaway stock after it was given. I believe this is the largest gift ever given, and thinking about it fills me with awe and gratitude and a sense of responsibility to make sure it is spent well.
我们的秘密武器——这就不该是什么秘密——是沃伦·巴菲特不可思议的慷慨。自2006年以来，如果算上伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股票在捐赠后的增值，他对基金会的捐赠总额约为450亿美元。我相信这是有史以来最大的一笔捐赠，想到这一点，我就充满了敬畏和感激，并由衷地有一种责任感，要确保这笔钱物尽其用。
Warren and I talk often about the work of the Gates Foundation and Breakthrough Energy. In this letter, you’ll read the kinds of things I tell him. It should look familiar to Warren and his readers: The model I’m following is his own letters to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.
沃伦和我经常谈及盖茨基金会和突破能源的工作。在下面这封信中，你会读到我向他报告的内容。沃伦和他的读者们应该觉得很眼熟：我参照的是他致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东信的模式。
The foundation’s mission hasn’t changed.
Although the Gates Foundation has existed for more than twenty years, there are still people who are unclear about what we do.
虽然盖茨基金会已经存在了二十多年，但仍有人不清楚我们的工作内容。
I describe our top global priority this way: We help people in poor countries who shouldn’t die, not die. Especially children.
我这样描述我们的全球首要任务：我们帮助贫穷国家中的人避免不必要的死亡，特别是儿童。
Most of the 4 million child deaths that still happen every year are from preventable causes. The chief way we help is by funding the creation and distribution of new vaccines and other lifesaving innovations. I’m deeply proud of this work because it has contributed significantly to the dramatic drop in childhood deaths over the past two decades. We also back efforts to help smallholder farmers in poor countries grow more food, raise their incomes, and adapt to the changing climate.
在每年发生的400万儿童死亡中，大部分都是由可避免的因素造成的。我们提供帮助的主要方式是资助新疫苗和其他拯救生命的革新技术的创造和分配。我对这项工作深感自豪，因为它为过去二十年儿童死亡数的大幅下降做出了巨大贡献。我们还支持帮助贫穷国家的小农户种植更多的粮食、提高收入及适应不断变化的气候。
基金会的受资助方帮助小农户——例如来自印度Mohanjot的Kamlavati Devi——种植出更多食物从而挣更多的钱。In the United States, our top mission is to help public schools ensure that all students can get ahead—especially those who typically face the greatest barriers, including Black and Latino students, and children from low-income backgrounds. We do this from the K-12 level through college. The progress in education is less dramatic than in health—there is no vaccine to improve the school system—but we have an excellent team and partners who are continually learning and improving. In the next section, I’ll describe how we refined our K-12 strategy this year. 在美国，我们的首要任务是帮助公立学校，确保所有学生都能取得进步，特别是那些通常面临最大阻碍的学生，包括黑人和拉美裔学生，以及来自低收入背景的儿童。我们在K-12（从幼儿园到高中阶段）直至大学都是这样做的。教育方面的进展没有卫生健康方面那么引人注目——因为没有能改善学校体系的疫苗——但我们有一个优秀的团队和合作伙伴，他们在不断地学习和改进。在下一章节中，我将介绍今年我们是如何完善我们的K-12战略的。
One significant change this year is that we expanded our board of trustees. It now has eight members, including Melinda, foundation CEO Mark Suzman, and me, as well as five talented and experienced women and men who aren’t otherwise connected to the foundation. Mark will have a lot to say about activities at the foundation, including our board, in his annual letter on the foundation’s website next month.
今年的一个重大变化是，我们扩大了我们的理事会。它现在有八名成员，包括梅琳达、基金会首席执行官马克·苏兹曼和我，以及五名才华横溢、经验丰富的女性和男性——他们本身与基金会没有关联。在马克将于下个月发表在基金会官网的年信里，他会讲很多包括理事会在内的基金会活动。
Some people have asked: Why create a foundation in the first place? Would it have been better to donate the money directly to existing groups? Donors have to make their own decisions about this, and there’s no wrong answer.
有些人问过我：为什么一开始要创建基金会？直接把钱捐给现有的组织不是更好？捐赠者必须对此做出自己的决定，而这里没有错误的答案。
“Why create a foundation in the first place?”
Personally, when I thought about how I could do the most good for the most people, the answer was to use my resources to direct more of the world’s funding and innovative IQ toward reducing inequity. And the most effective way to do that was to build a new organization with people from the public and private sectors who know how to get new tools invented and delivered. There weren’t any existing groups with this focus and mix of talent. But this model has worked phenomenally well in the private sector, and I believed it could work in the nonprofit sector too.
就我个人而言，当我思考自己如何才能为最多的人做最大的好事时，我的答案是利用我的资源将世界上更多的资金和创新人才用于减少不平等。做到这一点的最有效方法是建立一个新的组织，由来自公共和私营部门的人员组成，他们知道如何让新工具得以发明并交付。当时还没有任何现有的团体具有这种关注重点和人才组合。这种模式在私营部门运作得非常好，我相信它也可以在非营利部门发挥作用。
Two decades in, I still feel that way. Eventually the foundation will spend all its money and shut its doors. When it does, its most important contribution will not be the billions of dollars given away; it will be the teams of experts who developed strategies, partnerships, and innovations to reduce inequity.
二十年过去了，我仍然这么认为。终有一日，基金会会花光所有钱，然后关门大吉。到那时，它最重要的贡献将不是捐出的数十亿美元，而是那些开发了减少不公平的战略、伙伴关系和创新的专家团队。
In the U.S., we’re doubling down on math.
Our work on education goes back to the foundation’s earliest days, and our focus on improving math skills goes back almost as far. Although there are many factors that affect a student’s trajectory, the evidence shows that it’s extremely important for them to succeed in math. For example, those who pass Algebra I by ninth grade are twice as likely to graduate from high school and more likely to go on to college, get a bachelor’s degree, and go on to a high-paying career. And those who don’t complete Algebra 1 have just a one-in-five chance of graduating from high school.
我们在教育方面的工作可以追溯到基金会成立之初，而我们对提高数学技能的关注几乎也可以追溯到同一时期。尽管有许多因素影响着学生的发展轨迹，但证据表明，对他们来说，数学上的成功是极其重要的。例如，那些在九年级之前通过代数I的学生，从高中毕业的几率要高两倍，且更有可能进入大学，获得学士学位，并从事高薪职业。而那些没有完成代数I的人，只有五分之一的机会从高中毕业。
The explanations we’ve heard from teachers, students, and other experts may sound similar to your own experiences in school. It’s hard for students to see how math relates to the rest of their lives. They tune out if they fall behind the rest of the class, or they get bored if they’re far ahead of the class or if the subject doesn’t spark their interest. Teachers tell us repeatedly that their students find the math curriculum dull and irrelevant.
我们从老师、学生和其他专家那里听到的解释可能听起来与你自己在学校的经历类似。对于学生来说，他们很难看出数学和他们的余生有什么联系。如果他们落后于班上其他同学，他们就会退缩；如果他们在班上遥遥领先，或是学科没能激发他们的兴趣，他们就会感到厌烦。教师们反复告诉我们，他们的学生认为数学课程枯燥乏味，而且与生活不相关。
And now the pandemic has made America’s math problem even more urgent. Two months ago, the United States released a report card on the nation’s schools—officially known as the National Assessment of Educational Progress—and the news was grim. Scores in reading and math were down across the board, and the math results were especially worrisome. Just 26% of eighth graders were proficient in math, down 9 percentage points from 2019. These are the lowest numbers in nearly two decades.
而现在，这场大流行正使得美国的数学教育问题变得更加紧迫。两个月前，美国发布了一份全国学校的“成绩单”——正式名称为《国家教育进展评估（NAEP）》——其传递出的信息是严峻的。阅读和数学的分数全面下滑，而数学成绩尤其令人担忧。只有26%的八年级学生数学成绩优秀，比2019年下降了9个百分点。这是近20年来的最低。
The foundation’s education team was working on a new math strategy well before the latest NAEP numbers came out. They got input from educators, students, parents, researchers, and other experts. We announced the result of this work in October: We’re more than doubling the percentage of our K-12 funding that’s spent on math, from 40% to over 80%. Our funding will help develop better instructional materials that keep students interested and motivated, give teachers the support they need to deliver these materials, and make sure that each math course gets students prepared for the next one.
在最新的NAEP数据公布之前，基金会的教育团队就已经在制定一个新的数学战略了。他们从教育工作者、学生、家长、研究人员和其他专家那里获得了建议。我们在10月份宣布了这项工作的结果：我们将把用于数学教学的K-12资金比例提高一倍以上，从40%提高到80%以上。我们的资金将帮助开发更好的教学材料，以保持学生的兴趣和学习动力；给教师提供他们在教授这些材料过程中所需要的支持，并确保每门数学课程都能让学生为下一个课程做好准备。
In class and at home, students should be able to use software that’s interactive and personalized. It should know when they’re stuck and notify the teacher that they need extra help. Teachers should be able to choose from various ways of organizing students to help each other, for example helping them identify the students who are ahead and can help out the ones who are behind. The idea is to make the most of the teacher’s time and skills. We have many capable partners; the nonprofits Khan Academy and Zearn and the startup company Mastory, for example, are doing promising work.
在课堂上和家里，学生应该能够使用有交互且个性化的软件。软件应该知道他们什么时候遇到困难，并通知老师他们需要额外帮助。教师应该能够从组织学生互帮互助的各种方式中做出选择，例如帮助他们识别可以帮助落后学生的领先学生。这里的本意是为了最大限度地利用教师的时间和技能。我们有许多有能力的合作伙伴，例如非营利组织可汗学院和Zearn，以及创业公司Mastory，他们正在做非常有意义的工作。
纽约市布鲁克林Lab特许学校的师生们正在进行数学教学。基金会刚刚宣布了一项新的教育战略，其中包含对数学的重点关注。Now, we have to be humble about our efforts. As I’ve learned through the foundation’s work in this field, it’s one thing to make modest improvements in a few classrooms, and another thing to spark big improvements at scale. If we’re lucky, we’ll hit some of our milestones within three years and be able to prove out these new tools within five. That will set the stage for school districts and states to make sure that all students have well-supported teachers and an engaging curriculum that makes math feel relevant to their lives. 当下我们切不可对取得的成绩自满。正如我通过基金会在这一领域的工作所了解到的那样，在几个教室里做出些许的改进是一回事，而激发大规模变革则是另一回事。如果我们走运的话，我们将在三年内达到一些里程碑，并能在五年内验证这些新工具的效果。这将为学区和州政府创造条件，以确保所有学生都能有得到良好支持的教师，都能上到能让他们觉得数学与生活息息相关的，有吸引力的课程。
The world is a little more prepared for the next pandemic.
I’m loosely following the World Cup as I work on this letter, and as usual, soccer fans have been treated to some incredible games. But did you notice how much it looks like the pre-pandemic days? Globally, the numbers of infections and deaths are low enough that more office workers are on site at least some of the time, people are wearing masks much less often, and major public events are back.
在我写这封信的时候，我也时不时地关注下世界杯。一如既往，球迷们享受了极为精彩的比赛。但你有没有注意到它看起来有多像大流行前的日子？全球范围内，感染和死亡数字已经低到能让更多的办公室员工至少能在线下工作一些时间，人们戴口罩的次数大大减少，主要的公共活动也恢复了。
It's fantastic that we’re out of the acute phase of the pandemic. But I’m concerned that we’ll forget how horrible it was, and that in our complacency we won’t push ahead with the things needed to prevent another pandemic—one that could be even worse. If I were to grade the world on its pandemic-prevention efforts so far, I’d give it an I for Incomplete.
我们已经走出了大流行的急性阶段，这真是太棒了。但我担心我们会忘记它有多可怕，当我们陷入自满中，就会疏于为下一次大流行做准备 ——我们可能面临的情况更糟。如果要让我对世界迄今为止的防疫努力做出评价，我会称其为“不完全”。
It’s great that governments are putting more money into pandemic-related research. This money will speed up work on some crucial innovations, such as cheap and fast diagnostic tests that can be manufactured very quickly and vaccines that give you total immunity against all possible variants of a disease. (Today’s COVID vaccines just reduce the odds that you’ll get sick or die from specific variants.) But even more funding is necessary to accelerate the work—these are hard scientific puzzles to solve, and every moment matters in this race against microbes.
政府将更多的资金投入到与大流行相关的研究中，这是一件好事。这笔钱将加速一些关键的创新工作，例如可以很快被制造出来的的廉价且快速的诊断检测，以及可以让你对一种疾病的所有可能变体产生完全免疫的疫苗。（今天的新冠疫苗只是降低了你因特定变体而患病或死亡的概率。）但为了加快工作需要投入更多的资金——这些是难以解决的科学难题，而在这场与微生物的赛跑中，每一刻都很重要。
One crucial new piece of a global pandemic-prevention system is slowly coming together. As I argued in the book I published this year, How to Prevent the Next Pandemic, the world needs a global network of experts whose full-time job is to help head off global outbreaks. It should be responsible for a wide range of activities including watching out for potential pandemics, raising the alarm when they emerge, and helping to contain them.
全球大流行预防系统的一个重要的新组成部分正在慢慢形成。正如我在今年出版的《如何预防下一次大流行》一书中所说，世界需要一个由专家组成的全球网络，其全职工作是帮助阻止全球疫情的暴发。它应该负责广泛的活动，包括留意潜在的大流行病，在它们出现时发出警报，并帮助遏制它们。
一些项目正帮助避免另一场毁灭性的大流行，例如这个在阿富汗Nangarhar省开展的新冠预防运动。The World Health Organization is leading an effort to build such a network, with support from the health team at the Gates Foundation and other experts from around the world. They’ve drafted a preliminary paper outlining how it might work and are now refining it with health experts and national leaders. I hope this Global Health Emergency Corps, as they’re calling it, will be tested in a demonstration phase next year and become fully functioning by 2024. I wish it could happen faster, but I also understand that setting up a new global organization like this takes time, planning, and funding. 在盖茨基金会的卫生健康团队和来自全球各地的专家支持下，世界卫生组织正在领导建立这样一个网络的努力。他们已经起草了一份初步文件，概述了它可能的运作方式，现在正在与卫生专家和各国领导人一起完善它。我希望这个“全球健康应急队”——这是他们起的名字——能在明年的示范阶段进行测试，并在2024年之前实现全面运营。我希望它能更快发生，但我也明白，建立这样一个新的国际组织需要时间、规划和经费。
If you want to know more about pandemic prevention, you may want to check out my book, or wait for the paperback to come out next summer.
如果你想了解更多关于大流行预防的内容，你可能会想看看我的书，或者等明年夏天的平装版发售（《如何预防下一次大流行》简体中文版已由中信出版社出版，译注）。
Polio eradication took a step backwards, but we can recover lost ground.
根除脊髓灰质炎的工作倒退了一步，但我们可以收复失地
I’ve written in previous letters (such as this one) about how close the world is to eradicating polio, and what a magical moment in history it will be when we do. Unfortunately, COVID, extreme weather, and war have made it much harder for vaccinators to do their jobs.
我在以前的信中（比如
这封）写到，世界离根除脊髓灰质炎有多近，以及当我们做到时将会是史上多么神奇的时刻。不幸的是，新冠、极端天气和战争使得疫苗接种员的工作变得更加困难。
Between 2019 and 2021, coverage for all childhood vaccines, including the one for polio, dropped by the biggest margin in almost three decades, and not surprisingly, polio started coming back. In 2021, it paralyzed just six children in the entire world; this year, 30 children were paralyzed as of December 6. In Pakistan alone, 20 children have been paralyzed, up from just one last year.
在2019年至2021年间，所有儿童疫苗的覆盖率——包括脊髓灰质炎疫苗覆盖率——以近三十年来最大的幅度下降。毫不意外，脊髓灰质炎又回来了。在2021年，全世界有六名儿童因其瘫痪；今年，截至12月6日已有30名儿童因其瘫痪。仅在巴基斯坦，就有20名儿童瘫痪，而去年仅有一名。
After several years of being limited to Afghanistan and Pakistan, wild poliovirus traveled to two countries in Africa this year. And strains of a variant polio virus were found in the sewers of London and New York. In each of these places, governments had to launch new efforts to stop the disease.
在被限制在阿富汗和巴基斯坦几年之后，野生脊髓灰质炎病毒今年进入了两个非洲国家。在伦敦和纽约的下水道中也发现了变异的脊髓灰质炎病毒。在上述这些地方，政府都不得不开展新的工作来阻止这一疾病。
There could not be a better reminder that polio anywhere is a threat everywhere, and that we need to eradicate it. Of course, saying something is necessary doesn’t mean that it’s possible. I’ve underestimated this disease before, and I’ve been naïve about how difficult eradication would be, so I have to acknowledge that it could fail. But I don’t think it will.
没有比这更好的提醒了：任何地方的脊髓灰质炎对所有地方都是一种威胁，而我们需要根除它。当然，说某些事情是必要的并不意味着它就是可能的。我以前低估了这种疾病，而且对根除这种疾病的困难表现得天真。所以我不得不承认，根除脊髓灰质炎有失败的风险。但我认为它不会失败。
左图：当纽约州出现全美近十年来首个脊灰病例时，纽约人不得不进行免疫接种。（Ed JONES / AFP）右图：继首个脊灰病例在纽约被检测出之后，脊灰病毒又出现在纽约市的城市污水中。（ANGELA WEISS/AFP）Earlier this year, ten eminent scientists and health experts made the case for both why this disease should be eradicated, and why it can be eradicated, in the 2022 Scientific Declaration on Polio. This declaration is supported by more than 3,000 signatories from 117 countries. It’s short (much shorter than this letter), to the point, and well worth your time. 今年早些时候，十位知名科学家和卫生专家在《2022年消灭脊髓灰质炎科学宣言》中解释了为什么应该根除这种疾病，以及为什么可以根除这种疾病。该宣言得到了来自117个国家的3000多名签名者的支持。它很短（比这封信短得多），直切重点，非常值得你花时间读一读（点击文末“阅读原文”查看）。
Here are my own reasons for being optimistic. Despite this recent comeback, the momentum is still on our side: Polio cases are down 99.9% over the past three decades. We now have a new vaccine, called nOPV2, that will prevent outbreaks of polio variants. As of November, more than 500 million doses of nOPV2 had been administered in 23 countries. And a more detailed look at the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan shows that while cases were up slightly this year, the overall trend is that entire families of wild poliovirus are being eliminated.
以下是我自己乐观的理由。尽管最近病毒东山再起，但势头仍在我们这边：在过去的三十年里，脊髓灰质炎病例下降了99.9%。我们现在有一种新的疫苗，名为nOPV2，可以预防脊髓灰质炎变种病毒的暴发。截至11月，已有23个国家接种了超过5亿剂nOPV2。而对巴基斯坦和阿富汗的情况进行的更详细调查显示，虽然今年的病例略有增加，但总体趋势是整个野生脊灰病毒家族正在被消灭。
We’re also learning from the recent setbacks. In October, the group leading the eradication effort—the Global Polio Eradication Initiative—adopted a smart five-year strategy for overcoming the final obstacles to eradication. And donors stepped up to partially fund this new strategy. In October the foundation announced a new $1.2 billion pledge, and pledges from other donors brought the total to $2.6 billion. There’s still a long way to go—the commitments amount to a little more than half of what GPEI needs to finish the job—but this was a fantastic start.
我们也在从最近的挫折中学习。今年10月，领导根除工作的团体全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动（GPEI）通过了一项机智的五年战略，旨在克服根除工作的最后障碍。而捐助方也积极响应，对这项新战略提供了部分资助。基金会10月宣布了一项新的12亿美元捐款，而其他捐助者的认捐使总额达到了26亿美元。我们还有很长的路要走——这些承诺的资金只占GPEI完成工作所需资金的一半多一点——但这是一个极好的开始。
No update on polio would be complete without a big thank-you to Rotary International. They were part of this effort long before the Gates Foundation was. Since we became partners on eradication, we’ve jointly raised $1.8 billion for this work, and there’s more to come. Rotarians also lead massive vaccination campaigns to reach children all over the world. Sometime in the next few years, when polio is finally eradicated, my first phone call will be to thank and congratulate the team at Rotary International.
如果缺少了对国际扶轮社的由衷感谢，关于脊灰的汇报就不可能完整。他们早在盖茨基金会之前就参与了这项工作。自成为根除脊灰的合作伙伴以来，我们已经共同为这项工作筹集了18亿美元，而且未来还会有更多的资金。扶轮社成员还领导了大规模的疫苗接种活动，以帮助世界各地的儿童。在未来几年的某个时候，当脊髓灰质炎最终被根除时，我的第一个电话将是感谢和祝贺国际扶轮社的团队。
AI-powered ultrasounds could help save mothers and their babies.
人工智能驱动的超声检查可以帮助拯救母亲和她们的婴儿
A few weeks ago, we finished the latest round of strategy reviews at the foundation. This is when the leadership hears from various teams about what’s going well, what isn’t, and how they’re adjusting their strategies based on what they’ve learned. I get long documents filled with information to digest before each review. It’s one of my favorite times of the year at work.
几周前，我们在基金会完成了最新一轮的战略回顾。期间，领导层会听取各个团队的意见，了解哪些方面进展顺利，哪些方面不尽如人意，以及他们如何根据自己所学的调整战略。在每次回顾之前，我都会收到长长的文件，里面装满了要消化的信息。这是我每年在工作上最喜欢的时间之一。
Among the meetings that left me feeling especially optimistic was the one with our Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Discovery and Tools team. As the name implies, they fund work on new tools that can save mothers and children in low- and middle-income countries. I want to tell you about two very cool innovations they’re supporting, but first I should give you the context for their work.
在所有的会议中，让我感到特别乐观的是与我们的孕产妇、新生儿和儿童健康发现与工具团队的会议。顾名思义，他们负责资助能够拯救中低收入国家母亲和儿童的新工具。我想告诉你他们正在支持的两个非常酷的创新项目，但首先，我应该先把他们工作的背景介绍给你。
As you may remember from the chart of childhood deaths earlier in this letter, childhood deaths have fallen by half since 2000. But within this progress, there’s a tragically persistent problem: The number of babies who die in the first 30 days of life—what’s known as the neonatal period—is not dropping nearly as fast. Almost 1.9 million newborns died in 2019, only a third fewer than in 2000.
你可能还记得本信前面的儿童死亡图表，自2000年以来，儿童死亡人数已经下降了一半。但在这一进展中，有一个不幸的持续性问题：在出生后头30天内死亡的婴儿，即在所谓的新生儿期死亡的婴儿人数没有下降得那么快。2019年有近190万新生儿死亡，仅比2000年少三分之一。
The causes of neonatal deaths are complicated. A death is often the result of several factors that leave the baby especially vulnerable. So to make a dent in newborn mortality, health workers need to deal with these underlying causes as early in the child’s life as possible, or even before they’re born.
新生儿死亡的原因是超级复杂的。一次死亡往往是好几个因素造成的，这些因素使婴儿特别脆弱。因此，为了降低新生儿死亡率，卫生工作者需要在孩子生命尽可能早的时期，甚至在他们出生之前就处理这些潜在因素。
The first step is to identify the women with the greatest risk of complications during pregnancy. In rich countries like the United States, we do this with frequent checkups, lab tests, and an ultrasound. Using images from this scan, health-care workers can determine the health of the fetus and placenta, the gestational age and position, and so on.
第一步是确定哪些妇女在怀孕期间有最大的并发症风险。在像美国这样的富裕国家，我们通过频繁的检查、实验室测试和超声检查来做到这一点。通过扫描的图像，医护人员可以确定胎儿和胎盘的健康状况、胎龄和位置等等。
But in low-income settings, ultrasound machines simply aren’t practical. They’re bulky and expensive. It takes special training to operate them, as you know if you’ve ever watched a technician painstakingly move the probe around an expectant mom’s belly and mark points on the computer screen. Then the images need to be read by a radiologist or other expert, people who are in short supply in developing countries.
但在低收入环境中，超声波机根本不实用。它们既笨重又昂贵。如果你见过一个技术员费力地在一个孕妇的肚子上移动探头，并在电脑屏幕上做标记点，你就会知道操作它们还需要特殊的培训。超声图像还需要由放射科医生或其他专家来阅读，而这些人在发展中国家是十分稀缺的。
新型超声设备——例如这台正被一名肯尼亚助产士使用的设备——不需要大型的仪器或培训，而是与一台移动电话连接并由人工智能驱动。The foundation and several partners are funding work that will vastly simplify the whole ultrasound process. Instead of wheeling in a big machine on a cart, you just plug a probe into a mobile phone or tablet. You swipe it across the mom’s belly a few times, and then up and down. Software uses artificial intelligence to read the images and provide all the information that a trained human would provide. 基金会和几个合作伙伴正在资助的工作将极大地简化整个超声检查过程。你不再需要用手推车推着一台大机器，而只需将探头插入一台手机或平板电脑。你用它在妈妈的肚子上横着扫几下，然后再上下扫一下，软件会利用人工智能解读图像，并提供一个经过训练的人员会提供的所有信息。
It’s a super-promising new approach. Studies have already shown that it accurately identifies high-risk pregnancies and is actually better than humans at estimating gestational age. Now it’s being tested in Kenya and South Africa to see whether using it at scale makes a measurable difference for moms and babies. If it does, we’ll bring in more partners to reduce the cost so that more countries can afford it.
这是一个非常有前景的新方法。研究已经表明，它能准确地识别高危妊娠，在估测胎龄方面实际上比人工还准，且现在已经在肯尼亚和南非开展了测试，看看大规模使用它是否能给母亲和婴儿带来可衡量的变化。如果确实如此，我们将引入更多的合作伙伴以降低成本，使更多的国家能够负担得起。
By the way, this use of AI is just one example of the positive impact that artificial intelligence can have. Over the next few years, people are going to see the incredible progress in AI. I’m committed to making sure that these advances benefit everyone, and not just people in rich countries—for example, by using AI to help with developing new drugs, diagnosing diseases, and supporting students and teachers, in addition to identifying high-risk pregnancies in the way I’ve just described.Of course, using AI to find expectant moms who might need extra medical care is only part of the solution. You also need interventions to treat them. Fortunately, there’s great progress on this front too. The story begins with a smart observation by, of all people, a group of eye doctors.
顺便说一下，这只是人工智能可以产生积极影响的一个案例。在接下来的几年里，人们将看到人工智能技术的惊人进步。我致力于确保这些进展能惠及每个人，而不仅仅是富裕国家的人——例如，通过使用人工智能协助开发新药、诊断疾病、帮助学生和教师，此外还可以通过我刚才描述的方式识别高危妊娠。当然，使用人工智能来寻找可能需要额外医疗护理的准妈妈，也只是解决方案的一部分。你还需要外界干预来治疗他们。幸运的是，在这一方面也有很大的进展。这个故事始于一群眼科医生的敏锐的观察。
In the mid-2000s, a team of ophthalmologists from around the world was making trips to rural Ethiopia to help contain outbreaks of trachoma, a bacterial disease that causes blindness. In one community after another, kids would line up for banana-flavored doses of the antibiotic azithromycin to knock out the trachoma.
在2005年前后，一个由来自世界各地的眼科医生组成的团队前往埃塞俄比亚农村，帮助遏制沙眼的暴发，沙眼是一种能导致失明的细菌性疾病。在一个又一个社区，孩子们排队领取香蕉味的阿奇霉素抗生素以治疗沙眼。
“The foundation and several partners are funding work that will vastly simplify the whole ultrasound process.”
“基金会和几个合作伙伴正在资助的工作将极大地简化整个超声检查过程。”
Soon the doctors noticed something intriguing: The communities where children got the azithromycin seemed to have lower rates of child mortality than those where they didn’t.
很快，医生们就注意到了一些耐人寻味的东西：比起没有得到阿奇霉素的社区，得到阿奇霉素的社区的儿童死亡率似乎更低。
To find out whether that was really true—and if so, why it was true—the foundation funded a large study involving about 200,000 children in three countries. When the results came out in 2018, we were thrilled. In places with high rates of child mortality, giving azithromycin preemptively to all children significantly improved the odds that they would survive.
为了弄清楚这是否是事实，以及如果是真的，原因又是什么，基金会资助了一项大型研究，涉及三个国家的约20万名儿童。当结果在2018年出来时，我们都非常兴奋。在儿童死亡率高的地方，对所有儿童先行使用阿奇霉素，极大地提高了他们生存的几率。
Why would that be? Recently, researchers have been focusing on the idea that many birth problems start long before the baby is born and are connected to conditions in the mother’s digestive tract—especially an unhealthy gut microbiome. If the mom doesn’t have a good mix of bacteria, viruses, and other microbes, then her gut gets inflamed and can’t absorb all the nutrients she needs to stay healthy. Her baby will have the same problems, leading to malnutrition and possibly death.
为什么会这样呢？最近，研究人员一直在关注这样一个观点：许多出生问题在婴儿出生之前就已经开始了，并且与母亲的消化道状况相关联——特别是不健康的肠道微生物群。如果妈妈体内没有一个良好的细菌、病毒和其他微生物的组合，那么她的肠道就会发炎，以至于无法吸收她保持健康所需的所有营养。她的宝宝也会有同样的问题，进而导致营养不良并可能死亡。
The study we were so excited about revealed that the azithromycin was killing off bad bacteria in the children’s guts, reducing the inflammation and allowing their bodies to absorb essential nutrients. Based on this finding, local groups are now providing azithromycin to children under the age of one in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, where child mortality rates are especially high.
让我们非常兴奋的研究显示，阿奇霉素可以杀死儿童肠道中的坏细菌，减少炎症，使他们的身体能够吸收必要的营养物质。基于这一发现，当地团体现在正在向马里、尼日尔和尼日利亚的一岁以下儿童提供阿奇霉素，而这些地方的儿童死亡率特别高。
After that study was finished, we turned to the next set of questions: Is it possible to reach kids earlier, before they’re born? Would it help both the baby and the mom to treat her while she’s in labor? What about before she goes into labor, in the second and third trimesters? Two studies involving tens of thousands of women in Africa and South Asia just concluded this year. The findings haven’t been published yet, but I’m optimistic that they’ll show significant gains for mothers and babies.
这项研究结束后，我们转向了下一组问题：是否有可能在孩子出生前就接触到他们？在妈妈分娩时对她进行治疗，对孩子和妈妈都有帮助吗？在她分娩之前，在第二和第三孕期呢？涉及非洲和南亚数万名妇女的两项研究今年刚刚结束。研究结果还没有公布，但我乐观地认为，它们将取得在母亲和婴儿治疗方面的重大进展。
基金会的受资助方正努力确保新生儿——例如图片中这位印度韦洛尔的新生儿——都能生存与发展。Yet even then, this work won’t be finished. We still need to find the optimal ways to deliver these interventions along with other foods specially formulated to help pregnant women stay healthy. They’ll need to be affordable and tailored to local tastes. Ultimately, our goal is to help health workers identify high-risk pregnancies with inexpensive, easy-to-use ultrasounds and then treat the moms with safe, cheap interventions that will keep them healthy and give their babies a strong start in life. 然而即便如此，这项工作也不会结束。我们仍然需要找到最佳的方法来提供这些干预措施，以及其他专门为帮助孕妇保持健康而配制的食品。这些食品需要价格可负担，并且符合当地的口味。最终，我们的目标是帮助卫生工作者通过价格低廉、易于使用的超声检查来识别高危妊娠，然后用安全、便宜的干预措施来治疗母亲，使她们保持健康，给她们的孩子一个健壮的人生起点。
Gene therapy could cure AIDS.
If there’s one subject I’ve written about as often as polio in my previous letters, it’s probably HIV/AIDS. With polio, the story is how close we are to the finish line. With HIV, the story has been how far away we are. Even though there has been incredible progress in providing treatment to people with HIV and good progress on reducing its spread, a cure for the disease has always seemed like wishful thinking.
如果说在我以前的信中，有一个主题和脊髓灰质炎一样频繁出现，那可能就是艾滋病。关于脊髓灰质炎，故事是我们离终点线有多近。关于艾滋病，故事是我们离终点有多远。尽管在向艾滋病病毒携带者提供治疗方面已经取得了惊人的进展，并在减少其传播方面也取得了良好的进展，但要治愈这种疾病似乎一直是一个美好的愿景。
That’s no longer true. Based on recent research, some of it supported by the foundation, I think there’s a good chance that a cure for HIV will be available in 10 to 15 years. Even sooner, we could have a cure for another major killer as well: sickle cell disease.
这种愿景终于有可能成为现实。根据最近的研究（其中一些是由基金会支持），我认为很有可能在10到15年内找到对艾滋病病毒的治愈方法。甚至更早，我们也可以治愈另一个主要杀手：镰状细胞贫血。
Both breakthroughs rely on gene therapy, which involves making edits to small portions of a person’s genetic makeup. These edited genes can’t be passed on to the person’s children, but they can fix genetic mutations that cause the patient debilitating and deadly medical problems.
这两项突破都依赖于基因治疗，这涉及到对一个人的基因构成的一小部分进行编辑。这些经过编辑的基因不再能传给下一代，但它们可以修复导致病人衰弱和产生致命医疗问题的基因突变。
In the case of sickle cell disease, the idea is to repair a genetic mutation that causes a person’s red blood cells to be curved, like a farmer’s sickle, rather than round. This misshaping effect keeps the cells from carrying oxygen effectively. In people who inherit the trait from both parents, all of the red blood cells have the sickle shape, which causes episodes of awful pain, damages their internal organs, and usually leads to an early death.
就镰状细胞贫血而言，其思路是修复导致一个人的红血球弯曲——就像农民使用的镰刀——而非圆形的基因突变。这种畸形造成的影响会使细胞无法有效地携带氧气。遗传自父母双方的人，其体内所有的红血球都是镰刀形的，这会导致可怕的疼痛发作，损害他们的内脏器官，并通常导致患者早逝。
左图：左侧是健康的红血球，而右侧是由于镰状细胞特征而变形的红血球。（Getty Images）右图：艾滋病病毒/艾滋病筛查将一直是处置该疾病的重要部分，直到一种治愈疗法的诞生。But if most everyone who inherits the sickle cell trait from both parents dies young, why hasn’t the trait been eliminated by natural selection? Surprisingly, the answer has to do with the parasite that causes malaria. 但是，如果大多数从父母那里遗传了镰状细胞特征的人都在年轻时离世，为什么这种特征没有被自然选择所消除呢？令人惊讶的是，答案与导致疟疾的寄生虫有关。
When this parasite enters the red blood cells of someone who inherited the sickle cell trait from only one parent, the cells “sickle”—that is, they become misshapen. These sickled cells, and the malaria parasite within them, are then destroyed by the spleen. These people are much less likely to get sick and die of malaria, which is why the trait is still around, and why people from regions where malaria is highly prevalent—such as sub-Saharan Africa—are more likely to have it.
当这种寄生虫进入只从父母一方继承了镰状细胞特征的人的红血球时，细胞就会“镰刀化”，也就是说，它们变得畸形。这些病态的细胞以及其中的疟疾寄生虫随后被脾脏摧毁。这些人患病和死于疟疾的可能性要小得多，这就是为什么这种性状仍然存在，以及为什么来自疟疾高度流行地区的人（如撒哈拉以南非洲）更有可能拥有这种性状。
Gene therapy can be used to cure sickle cell disease today, but it’s a difficult and time-consuming process; it involves removing the cells that create red blood cells, fixing their genetic code so their offspring are shaped right, and then returning them to your body. At $2.8 million per person, it’s prohibitively expensive even in the United States, not to mention in poor countries.
如今，基因疗法可以用来治疗镰状细胞贫血，但这是一个困难且耗时的过程；它涉及到移除创造红细胞的细胞，修复它们的遗传密码，使它们的后代形状正确，然后再把它们送回你的身体。治疗费每人280万美元，这即使在美国也是异常昂贵的，更不用说在贫穷国家了。
The work we’ve been funding is designed to make it far easier and cheaper. Our vision is that you could be cured with a single injection containing the equivalent of a microscopic car, which would navigate to the mother cell and deliver a passenger, which would get inside the cell and fix the mutated gene.
我们一直在资助的工作旨在使其变得远比现在要容易和便宜。我们的愿景是，只要注射一针，就能治愈你。这针相当于一辆微型汽车，它将导航到母细胞并送出一名“乘客”，这名“乘客”将进入细胞内部并修复突变的基因。
The idea sounds fanciful, but there was real progress on it just this year when a researcher at the University of Washington here in Seattle accomplished it in a monkey. We’re funding several dozen companies and academic labs to pursue different ways of designing the car and passenger. Many of their designs will fail, but from the ones that succeed, we’ll choose the most promising and fund research on whether they’re safe.
这个想法听起来有些异想天开，但就在今年已经出现了实质进展。就在西雅图当地的华盛顿大学，一名研究人员在一只猴子身上完成了这个想法。我们正在资助几十家公司和学术实验室，以寻求设计“汽车”和“乘客”的不同方法。他们的许多设计会失败，但从成功的设计中，我们将选择最有前途的设计，并资助对其安全性的研究。
The beauty of this approach is that it should work for curing HIV too. With a single shot, your body will have new ways to fight off the virus and keep it from invading your cells.
这种方法的美妙之处在于，它对治愈艾滋病病毒也应该有效。只需一针，你的身体就会有新的方法来抵御病毒，使其不侵入你的细胞。
Scientists are working on various ways to accomplish this. One approach is to modify the surface of the cells that HIV likes to invade, making it much harder for the virus to get inside them.
科学家们正在研究各种方法来实现这一目标。一种方法是修改艾滋病病毒喜欢入侵的细胞的表面，使病毒更难进入细胞内。
There are still years of work ahead before any of these approaches are proven safe and effective. The earliest versions might be short-lived and require additional doses to keep the HIV from coming back. And there’s the big question of how it can be made cheap enough: The foundation team thinks the treatment needs to cost on the order of $1,000 to $2,000 per person, a tiny fraction of the current $2.8 million price tag for sickle cell treatment. For every innovation the foundation supports, we also work on ways to make it affordable to people in poorer countries. Otherwise it won’t help reduce inequity, which is our ultimate goal.
在这些方法中的任何一种被证明安全和有效之前，仍有多年的工作要做。最早的版本可能药效较短，需要额外的剂量来防止艾滋病病毒重新回来。还有一个大问题是如何能使它足够便宜。基金会团队认为，这种治疗方法的成本需达到每人1000至2000美元，而这只是目前镰状细胞贫血病治疗280万美元价格的一小部分。对于基金会支持的每一项创新，我们都在想办法让贫穷国家的人能够负担得起。否则它将无助于减少不平等，而这正是我们的最终目标。
基因治疗可能有一天会治愈镰状细胞贫血，使得输血不再是必须（图为坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆的一位患者正在输血）。It's hard to overstate the benefits of a cure for AIDS. Today, roughly 38 million people around the world are living with HIV, and another 1.5 million become newly infected each year. To survive, they have to take antiretroviral drugs every day for the rest of their lives. An ideal HIV cure will free all of them from taking these drugs and save the world millions of dollars a year in treatment costs. It will also mean that millions of people never have to worry about getting HIV in the future. Thanks to the advances in gene therapy, I’m now optimistic about the opportunity to end the AIDS pandemic. 获得治愈艾滋病方法的好处怎么说都不为过。今天，全世界大约有3800万人携带艾滋病病毒，每年还有150万人成为新的感染者。为了生存，他们必须在余生中每天服用抗逆转录病毒药物。一个理想的艾滋病病毒疗法将使他们所有人免于服用这些药物，每年为世界节省数百万美元的治疗费用。这也将意味着数以百万计的人在未来永远不必担心会感染艾滋病病毒。得益于基因治疗的发展，我现在对结束艾滋病大流行的机会感到乐观。
Better buildings can help with climate change.
I can sum up the solution to climate change in two sentences: We need to eliminate global emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. Extreme weather is already causing more suffering, and if we don’t get to net-zero emissions, our grandchildren will grow up in a world that is dramatically worse off.
我可以用两句话来总结解决气候变化的办法：我们需要在2050年前消除全球温室气体的排放。极端天气已经造成了更多的苦难，如果我们不实现净零排放，我们的子孙将在一个环境急剧恶化的世界中长大。
I can sum up the challenge in two sentences: Getting to zero will be the hardest thing humans have ever done. We need to revolutionize the entire physical economy—how we make things, move around, produce electricity, grow food, and stay warm and cool—in less than three decades.
我也可以用两句话来总结面临的挑战：实现零排放将是人类所做过的最困难的事情。我们需要在不到三十年的时间里实现整个物质经济的完全变革——我们如何制造东西、出行、发电、种植粮食以及保持温暖和凉爽。
My journey into clean energy began with the Gates Foundation’s agriculture program. I set out to learn about the plight of smallholder farmers in the countries where we fund work, which led to learning about the problems they face as weather gets more extreme. That in turn led me to learn about climate change, and ultimately to the creation of Breakthrough Energy.
我的清洁能源之旅始于盖茨基金会的农业项目。我开始了解我们资助的国家中那些小型农户的困境。这使我了解到他们在气候变得愈发极端时所面临的问题，而这进而又让我了解到气候变化，并最终促成了突破能源的创立。
I should explain the differences between the foundation’s work on climate and BE’s work on clean energy, because they’re intentionally distinct from each other.
我应该解释一下基金会在气候方面的工作和突破能源在清洁能源方面的工作之间的区别，因为它们被故意设计成彼此区别。
左图：像图中这种水稻一样的新型作物，将帮助小农户适应不断变化的气候。右图：数百万的小农户——例如坦桑尼亚姆布尤尼的Jenny Zacharia——倚赖木薯作为主要粮食作物。The foundation works on adaptation (the process of adjusting to the warming that’s already taking place). It starts from the idea that the poorest are suffering the most from climate change, but businesses don’t have a natural incentive to make tools that help them. A seed company can earn profits from, say, a new type of tomato that’s a nicer shade of red and doesn’t bruise easily, but it has no incentive to make better strains of cassava that (a) survive floods and droughts and (b) are cheap enough for the world’s low-income farmers. The foundation’s role is to make sure that the poorest benefit from the same innovative skills that benefit richer countries. 基金会致力于适应气候变化（即适应已经发生的全球变过程）。它的出发点是，最贫穷的人受气候变化的影响最大，但企业却没有天然动机去制造能帮助他们的工具。例如，一家种子公司可以从一个新的西红柿品种中获得利润，这种西红柿的颜色更好，而且不容易碰伤，但它没有动力去开发出更好的木薯品种，这些品种一方面可以在洪水和干旱中生存，另一方面对世界上的低收入农民来说足够便宜。基金会的作用是确保最贫穷的人能够从惠及较富裕国家的创新技能中同样受益。
On the other hand, philanthropy alone can’t eliminate greenhouse gases. Only markets and governments can achieve that kind of pace and scale. The incentives are there to create new zero-carbon technologies—there’s a huge global demand for them—but companies need early investors and technical support to prove out their ideas. This is why Breakthrough Energy is separate from the foundation, and why its work includes investments in companies that hope to make a profit.
另一方面，仅靠慈善事业是无法消除温室气体的，只有市场和政府才能实现这样的速度和规模。创造新的零碳技术的动力是存在的——全球对这些技术有巨大的需求，但公司需要早期投资者和技术支持来证明他们的想法。这就是为什么突破能源与基金会是分开的，以及为什么它的工作包括对那些希望获利的公司进行投资。
It may seem strange to talk about profit-making ventures in a letter about giving away my resources. There are two key points here. One is that any profits I make on BE investments will go either to the foundation or back into climate work. The other key point is that companies need to be profitable so they can grow, keep running, and prove that there’s a market for their products. The profit incentive will attract other innovators, creating competition that will drive down the prices of zero-emissions inventions and have a meaningful impact on emissions from buildings.
在一封讲捐赠的信中谈及营利性企业，可能显得有些奇怪。这里有两个关键点：其一是我在突破能源投资中获得的任何利润都将用于基金会或重新用于气候工作。另一个关键点是，公司需要赢利，这样他们才能成长，继续运营，并证明他们的产品有市场。利润激励将吸引其他创新者，进而创造竞争，推动零排放发明的价格下降，并对建筑物的排放产生有意义的影响。
So how is the world doing on the march toward zero emissions? Unfortunately, on near-term goals, we’re falling short. Between 2021 and 2022, global emissions actually rose from 51 billion tons of carbon equivalents to 52 billion tons.
那么，世界在
向零排放迈进的过程中表现如何？不幸的是，我们没有达成近期的目标。2021年至2022年期间，全球排放量实际上从510亿吨碳当量上升到了520亿吨。
The good news is that we’re much further along than I would have predicted a few years ago on getting companies to invest in zero-carbon breakthroughs.
好消息是，在让公司投资于零碳突破方面，我们比我几年前预测的要走得更远。
“We’re much further along than I would have predicted a few years ago on getting companies to invest in zero-carbon breakthroughs.”
“在让公司投资于零碳突破方面，我们比我几年前预测的要走得更远。”
Public funding for climate-related research and development has increased by almost a third since the Paris climate summit in 2015. This year, the U.S. adopted climate-related laws that together provide more than $500 billion for the energy transition. This money will unlock far more in private investments and spur hundreds of new clean-energy projects.
自2015年巴黎气候峰会以来，用于气候相关研究和开发的公共资金增加了近三分之一。今年，美国通过了与气候有关的法律，总共为能源转型提供了超过5000亿美元的资金。这笔钱将释放出更多的私人投资，并刺激数以百计的新清洁能源项目。
Private funding for clean energy is also increasing dramatically. In the past two years, venture capital firms have put approximately $70 billion into clean-energy startups. The climate-focused investment fund I helped launch, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, now has more than 100 companies in its portfolio.
清洁能源的私人资助也在大幅增加。在过去的两年里，风险投资公司已经向清洁能源初创企业投入了大约700亿美元。我帮助建立的以气候为重点的投资基金突破能源基金，其投资组合中已有超过100家公司。
In October, we gathered these companies at a conference in Seattle hosted by Breakthrough Energy. Just before the event, I got updates from two that have ingenious solutions to a mundane-sounding but important problem: heat leakage.
今年10月，我们将这些公司汇聚在由突破能源在西雅图主办的一场会议上。就在会议之前，我收到了两家公司的最新消息，它们用巧妙的方案解决一个看似普通但很重要的问题：热泄漏。
Buildings are a surprisingly large source of emissions. The energy they use for air conditioning, heating, lights, and so on is responsible for nearly 14% of all greenhouse gases. And buildings waste a lot of energy: Because of inefficient windows and gaps in what’s known as the building envelope, as much as 40% of heated or cooled air leaks out of the typical building.
鲜为人知的是，建筑物竟然是一个大排放源。用于空调、暖气、灯光等的能源占所有温室气体的近14%。同时，建筑物浪费了大量的能源。由于低效的窗户和被称为建筑外壳的缝隙，有多达40%的加热或冷却的空气从一般的建筑中泄漏出来。
Luxwall, a company based in Michigan, has developed an incredibly efficient next-generation window. It consists of two specially coated glass panes with a vacuum between them, much as a Thermos bottle is made with two layers. It’s roughly as efficient as fiberglass insulation and many times more efficient than the single-pane windows used in most buildings. Luxwall recently began shipping their products to a few pilot projects in the U.S., and they’re planning to start construction on a large manufacturing facility early next year.
位于密歇根州的Luxwall公司，已经开发出一种极为高效的下一代窗户。它由两块带有特殊涂层的玻璃板组成，中间是真空的，就像一个由两层组成的暖水瓶一样。它的效率与玻璃纤维绝缘材料大致相同，比大多数建筑中使用的单层窗户的效率高很多倍。Luxwall最近开始将他们的产品发货给美国的一些试点工程，并且他们计划在明年初开工建设一个大型生产设施。
Aeroseal密封漏气管道和建造气囊的方法已经被应用于数十万栋建筑物。Another example is Aeroseal, an Ohio-based company that deals with all the air leakage not involving windows. They’ve developed a polymer that’s light enough to float in the air. To seal up a building, they close all the doors and windows, blow air into the building to raise the pressure inside, and then release a fog of these polymers. As the air heads for leaky spots in the air ducts and walls, it carries the polymers, and they build up in the cracks and crevices, making them air-tight. Thanks to deals with several large homebuilders and developers in the United States and Canada, Aeroseal has already sealed 250,000 buildings. Within three years, they hope to be doing that many every year. 另一个案例是Aeroseal，一家位于俄亥俄州的公司，主要处理所有不涉及窗户的空气泄漏问题。他们已经开发出一种聚合物，其重量轻到可以漂浮在空气中。为了密封建筑物，他们会关闭所有的门窗，向建筑物内鼓气以提高内部气压，然后释放这些聚合物的雾气。当空气流向通风管道和墙壁内的泄漏点时，携带的聚合物会在裂缝和缝隙中堆积，使它们变得气密。得益于与美国和加拿大的几家大型住宅建筑商和开发商达成的协议，Aeroseal已经密封了25万幢建筑。在三年内，他们希望每年都保持同样的增长。
Thinking about what matters as we head into 2023.
With the pandemic, war in Ukraine, and downturn in the economy, the past three years have been some of the hardest in recent memory. Everyone in the world has experienced loss during this time—of loved ones, financial security, or a way of life. Because of my position, I’m insulated from many of these hardships. But I too have hit some personal low points over the past few years, including the death of my father and the end of my marriage.
由于大流行、在乌克兰的战争和经济下滑，过去三年可谓是最近记忆中最艰难的时期。在这段时间里，世界上每个人都经历了失去——失去所爱的人、财务安全或生活方式。由于我所处的位置，我没有受到这许多苦难的影响。但在过去几年里，我也遭遇了一些个人的低谷，包括我父亲的去世和我婚姻的终结。
As I reflect on the past and look ahead to next year, I’m feeling grateful for the people in my life who support me in difficult moments. They remind me of what’s important, and they inspire me to be a better father and friend. Being wealthy makes my life much more comfortable, but not more fulfilling. For that, I need family, friends, and a job where I work on things that matter. I’m grateful to have all three.
当我回顾过去并展望明年时，我对我生命中那些在困难时刻支持我的人感到感激。他们提醒我什么是重要的，他们激励我成为一个更好的父亲和朋友。富裕使我的生活更加舒适，但并非更加充实。为此，我需要家庭、朋友和一份能让我为重要事情而奋斗的工作。我很感激自己能拥有这三者。
One of the joys of getting older is to see my three children welcome wonderful new people into our family. Last year I gained a son-in-law, and next year I’ll become a grandfather. I hope I can be as good with my grandchildren as my dad was with his.
变老的乐趣之一是能看到我的三个孩子迎来美好的新伙伴进入我们的家庭。去年我有了一个女婿，明年我将成为一名祖父。我希望我能够像我父亲一样和孙辈们融洽相处。
I also hope that, through my work, I can help make the better world that future generations deserve. I am in awe of the caliber of people who have dedicated their lives to making the world a more equitable place, and I feel lucky to be able to support their efforts. My goal of keeping the world’s attention and resources on the poorest people is only possible because of their commitment. 我还希望，通过我的工作，我可以去帮助创造子孙后代应当拥有的更好世界。我对那些为使世界变得更加公平而奉献一生的人感到敬畏，我为能够支持他们的努力感到幸运。正因有了他们的奉献，我将世界的注意力和资源集中在最贫穷人身上的目标才变得可能。
The opportunities to reduce inequity, even at this tumultuous moment, are out there. Success is a long-term prospect, but it starts with actions we take now. I’ll spend 2023 trying to make the most of these opportunities, and whenever I get the chance, I will urge others to do the same.
即使在这个动荡的时刻，减少不平等的机会也是存在的。成功是一个长远目标，但它始于我们现在采取的行动。我将在2023年充分利用这些机遇，只要有机会，我也会敦促其他人也这样做。
I hope you have a happy end to 2022 and a healthy and peaceful 2023.
我祝愿你有一个2022年的圆满收尾，以及一个健康、平安的2023年。
