This week I did my 11th Ask Me Anything on Reddit. I love the AMA format—its unfiltered approach allows me to answer smart questions on a range of topics in real time. This year Redditors asked about everything from climate change and the rising cost of living to veganism to my views on Scotland.
本周我在Reddit上完成了第11次“问我任何事”(AMA)在线问答。我喜欢AMA这种在线问答形式——这种避开滤镜的形式能让我实时回答各类主题的有趣提问。今年Reddit用户问到的问题涉猎范围甚广,从气候变化、生活成本上升,到素食主义,再到我对苏格兰的看法。
You can read through the questions and answers in the transcript below. Thanks to everyone who joined in on this annual tradition!
你可以在下面的文字记录中阅读这些问题和答案。感谢每一位参与这一年度例行活动的人!
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Redditor’s question: Hi Bill, what are your views on generative AI? How do you think this will impact the world?
Reddit用户的问题:嗨,比尔,你对生成式人工智能(generative AI)有什么看法?你认为这将对世界产生怎样的影响?
My answer: I am quite impressed with the rate of improvement in these AIs. I think they will have a huge impact. Thinking of it in the Gates Foundation context we want to have tutors that help kids learn math and stay interested. We want medical help for people in Africa who can't access a doctor. I still work with Microsoft some, so I am following this very closely.
我的回答:这些人工智能的演进速度让我印象颇深。我认为它们将产生巨大影响。从盖茨基金会的角度考虑,我们希望有导师能帮助孩子们学习数学并保持兴趣;我们希望为非洲那些无法就医的人提供医疗援助。我仍然与微软有合作,因此我也在非常密切地关注着这件事。
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Do you think that using technology to push teachers and doctors out of jobs will have a positive impact on our world? What about, instead, we use AI to give equitable access to education and training for more human teachers and doctors, without the $500,000 price tag. Do you think that might have a more positive impact on, ya know, humans?
你认为用科技取代教师和医生岗位会对我们的世界产生积极影响吗?那如果相反,我们利用人工智能为更多的人类教师和医生提供公平的教育和培训机会,这样就无需给教育打上50万美元的价格标签。你认为这会对人类产生更积极的影响吗?
I think we need more teachers and doctors, not less. In the Foundation’s work, the shortage of doctors means that most people never see a doctor and they suffer because of that. We want class sizes to be smaller. Digital tools can help although their impact so far has been modest.
我认为我们需要更多的教师和医生,而非减少其数量。在基金会的工作中,医生短缺意味着大多数人无从就医,他们因此而受苦。我们希望每个班级孩子的人数变得更小。数字化工具可以提供帮助,尽管到目前为止其仍影响甚微。
·    ·    ·
Recently on GatesNotes you mentioned you're going to be a Grandfather, congrats! What life lesson(s) could you tell your grandchild that will make life happier, more meaningful, and more purposeful?
最近你在盖茨笔记中提到你要当祖父了,恭喜你!你会传授给你的孙辈哪些人生经验,让他们生活地更快乐、更有意义、更有目标?
I think you mostly help kids by setting a good example and giving them time when they want it. I hope to get lots of time with whatever grandchildren I have sharing my fascination with the world. A grandchild does make you think about how we make sure the future is better – politics, health, climate, etc..
我认为帮助孩子的主要方式是树立一个好的榜样,并在他们需要的时候给予其陪伴。我希望能有很多时间能与我未来的孙辈们共度,跟他们分享我对这个世界的热爱。有了孙辈的确会让你思考我们如何确保一个更美好的未来——在政治、健康、气候等等方面。
·    ·    ·
What's your daily driver smartphone? Last time when you did one of these I think it was a Galaxy Fold. Is it still the case? Are you up to date with Microsoft's upcoming projects? Do you get insights into what's gonna launch next? Some recent rumors claim that the next Microsoft Duo will ditch the dual display in favor of a foldable screen. Not that you need to confirm the rumors or anything but do you have knowledge of the upcoming projects or you don't really care about that side of things anymore?
你日常使用的智能手机是什么?我记得在上一次AMA活动中,你提到使用的是Galaxy系列的折叠屏智能手机。现在你还在使用这款手机吗?你了解微软即将推出的最新产品吗?你有接下来会推出的产品的消息吗?最近有一些传言称,微软的下一代Duo产品将放弃双屏,转而采用可折叠屏。我并非想让你证实这些传言或怎么样,但你是否对即将发布的产品有所了解,还是你已经不怎么关心这方面的事情了?
I have a Samsung Fold 4 which JY Lee the Chairman of Samsung gave me when I saw him in South Korea to update my Fold 3. Of course, I use Outlook and a lot of Microsoft software on it. The screen size means I don't use a tablet but just the phone and my portable PC - a Windows machine.
我有一部三星四代折叠屏手机Fold 4,这是三星董事长李在镕在韩国见到我时送给我的,用来更新我的三代手机Fold 3。当然,我也会在这部手机上使用Outlook和很多微软软件。这部手机的屏幕尺寸意味着我无需使用平板电脑,只需使用手机和我的便携式电脑——一台Windows系统的电脑。
Microsoft involves me in some of the research and product plans. I really enjoy working with Satya and his teams. I am not up to date on their hardware roadmap. My desktop PC is Windows Surface Studio which is great. I also love the whiteboard Surface Hub and we have a lot of those in the office.
微软让我参与一些研究和产品计划。我非常喜欢与萨提亚和他的团队一起合作。我并不了解他们最新的硬件发布计划。我的台式电脑是Windows Surface Studio,它很棒。我也喜欢Surface Hub交互式白板,我们办公室里有很多。
·    ·    ·
Hello Mr. Gates, I saw a bit about the “Think week” you take yearly on your Netflix series. Could you elaborate a bit more on it (e.g., how do you plan a day on that). And like how do you stay focussed for long hours (e.g. while reading on a specific topic) without being distracted by any other thing ? or without your mind wandering over to other things ? Or just focussed with a general outline of bigger picture in mind for a topic ?
你好,盖茨先生,我在你网飞(Netflix)的系列纪录片中了解到一些你每年会进行的“思考周”活动。想请你再详细解释一下这个活动(比如,你是如何在“思考周”中计划一天的工作的)。再比如,你如何长时间保持专注(比如,在阅读某个特定主题时)而不被任何其他事情分心?或者你是如何(在阅读过程中)专注于在脑海中设想出某个宏观问题的大致轮廓的?
I really needed to set aside time to read new ideas when I was CEO at Microsoft since the day-to-day issues meant I would fall behind if I didn't. Now I mix my learning sessions into my schedule on a regular basis since the day-to-day demands are not like being the CEO of Microsoft. I love the mix of things I get to do between travelling and seeing work in action and then meeting with scientists/engineers to figure out how to innovate in climate or software.
在微软担任首席执行官时,我的确需要留出时间来汲取新想法,因为我每天要处理诸多日常事务,如果不这样做的话我就会落伍。现在,我将学习内容定期安排进了日程表之中,因为现在我的日常事务没有我担任微软首席执行官时那样繁重。我喜欢在旅行和视察工作的间隙,将各种想法汇集到一起,然后与科学家/工程师会面,商讨如何在气候或软件方面进行创新。
·    ·    ·
Hi Bill, my question is what your favourite band is of all time, and what’s your favourite thing about the Country Scotland ? Thank you!
嗨,比尔,我的问题是,你一直以来最喜欢哪个乐队,你最喜欢苏格兰乡村乐队的哪首歌?谢谢你!
I have only been to Scotland 5 times, I think. All of the visits have been great. The Foundation does a lot of the livestock work we do there with great partners. We have done a lot for farmers who keep cows and chickens (and sheep and goats) in poor countries using the vaccines and other tools created by the partners there.
我记得我只去过苏格兰5次。每次访问经历都很棒。基金会与当地杰出的合作伙伴一起从事了很多畜牧业相关工作。我们利用当地合作伙伴发明的疫苗和其他工具,为贫困国家饲养奶牛和鸡(以及绵羊和山羊)的农民提供了很多帮助。
My favorite bands include U2 - I loved Bono's recent book and he is a good friend (Ok - they are from Ireland - I don't have a particular Scottish band in mind since bagpipes don't make my top 10).
我最喜欢的乐队有U2——我喜欢U2主唱波诺最新出版的回忆录,他是我的一位好朋友(好吧,他们来自爱尔兰。我不记得有什么特别喜欢的苏格兰乐队,苏格兰风笛排不进我最喜欢的前十名音乐榜单)。
Amazingly Chicken Tikka Masala is from Scotland even though it is considered an Indian dish (and mostly eaten there and in Indian restaurants)!
令人惊讶的是,印度咖喱鸡来自苏格兰,尽管这被认为是一道印度菜(而且大多是在印度和印度餐馆里吃到)!
·    ·    ·
Climate: We f***ed or super-turbo f***ed?
气候:我们是完蛋了还是彻底完蛋了?
It's important to keep in mind that life in poor countries is difficult right now. There are parts of the world where over 10% of the kids die before 5 and over 30% have malnutrition so their brains and bodies don't fully develop. Climate will slow down the progress we make on improving the human condition, but I still believe we can avoid a terrible outcome. The pace of innovation is really picking up even though we won't make the current timelines or avoid going over 1.5.
重要的是要牢记现在贫穷国家的生活很艰难。世界上有些地方,超过10%的孩子活不过5岁,超过30%的孩子营养不良,因此他们的大脑和身体不能发育完全。气候变化将减缓我们改善人类处境的进展,但我仍然相信我们可以避免灾难性的结果。即使我们无法按照目前的时间规划逐步实现,或将气温升高控制在1.5摄氏度以下,但创新的步伐确实在加快。
·    ·    ·
Hi Mr. Gates, what are your views on OpenAI's ChatGPT?
你好,盖茨先生,你对OpenAI的人工智能对话模型ChatGPT有什么看法?
It gives a glimpse of what is to come. I am impressed with this whole approach and the rate of innovation.
它让我们看到了未来的趋势。我对其整体架构和创新速度印象深刻。
·    ·    ·
Why are you buying up so much farmland, do you think this is a problem with billionaire wealth and how much you can disproportionally acquire?
你为什么要购买这么多农田,你认为这是亿万富翁的财富分配问题吗?你可以不相称地获得多少财富?
I own less than 1/4000 of the farmland in the US. I have invested in these farms to make them more productive and create more jobs. There isn't some grand scheme involved - in fact all these decisions are made by a professional investment team.
我只拥有美国不到1/4000的农田。我对这些农场进行了投资,以提高其生产力,创造更多的就业机会。其中并没有什么宏伟的计划——事实上,所有这些决定都是由专业的投资团队做出的。
In terms of the very rich I think they should pay a lot more in taxes and they should give away their wealth over time. It has been very fulfilling for me and is my full-time job.
对于那些非常富有的人来说,我认为他们应该缴纳更多的税款,而且他们应该不断捐出他们的财富。这对我来说很有成就感,而这也是我的全职工作。
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Can there be ethical billionaires?
是否存在有道德的亿万富翁?
Being rich can easily make you out of touch. The incentive to create new companies is still a good thing, I think. Even if taxes go up, I still wouldn't ban anyone from being worth a billion but that is just one opinion. I have been very lucky.
有钱很容易让你飘飘然。我认为,鼓励创建新公司仍然是一件好事。即使税收增加,我仍然不会反对任何人拥有10亿身价,但这只是我的一方观点。一直以来,我确实很幸运。
·    ·    ·
The Gates foundation fought for the Oxford vaccine to NOT be open-source and to instead be sold for profit. I'm sure they don't mind.
盖茨基金会为牛津疫苗争取到并非以开源形式发行,而是以盈利的方式出售。当然,我也知道他们并不会介意(这样做)。
This is not correct. Even though neither I nor the Foundation were involved in the license from Oxford to AstraZeneca, AstraZeneca did a strong job offering their help to any vaccine manufacturer who could make it. A great example is Serum which the Foundation funded and made over 2B vaccines that saved millions of lives.
并非如此。尽管我和基金会都没有参与到牛津大学给予阿斯利康的合作许可之中,但阿斯利康做了一项强有力的工作,他们为任何能够生产疫苗的制造商提供帮助。一个很好的例子是基金会资助的印度血清研究所,该公司生产了超过20亿剂疫苗,挽救了数百万人的生命。
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Isn’t it contradictory to be a humanitarian and then accumulate most scarce resource-land under one?
作为一个人道主义者,却还在个人手中积累最稀缺的资源——土地,这难道不是自相矛盾的吗?
Everything I own will be sold as money moves into the Foundation. In the meantime, my investment group tries to invest in productive assets including farmland although that is less than 4% of the total.
随着资金流入基金会,我所拥有的一切都将被出售。与此同时,我的投资团队试图投资于包括农田在内的生产性资产,尽管这还不到总资产的4%。
·    ·    ·
Hi Bill. Many years ago, I think around 2000, I heard you say something on TV like, “people are vastly overestimating what the internet will be like in 5 years, and vastly underestimating what it will be like in 10 years.” Is any mammoth technology shift at a similar stage right now? Any tech shift - not necessarily the Internet
嗨,比尔。很多年前,我想是2000年左右,我听到你在电视上这样讲过,“人们大大地高估了互联网5年后的样子,而大大地低估了互联网10年后的情况。”现在是否有任何巨大的技术变革处于类似的阶段?任何技术变革——不一定是互联网。
AI is the big one. I don't think Web3 was that big or that metaverse stuff alone was revolutionary, but AI is quite revolutionary.
人工智能是项重大变革。我不认为Web3有那么大的前景,或者元宇宙本身有多大的革命性,但人工智能是相当具有革命性的。
Most of my time is on innovations like helping pregnant women know if they need to get to a hospital in advance (the ultrasound work I mentioned in my end of the year letter). Malnutrition and anemia are important areas we see a lot of promise in right now.
我的大部分时间都投入在创新方面,比如帮助孕妇了解自己是否需要提前去医院进行检查(我在年度展望中提到的超声波一事)。营养不良和贫血是我们目前觉得大有前景的两大重要领域(进行投入创新)。
·    ·    ·
Hi Mr Gates, long time fan here and fellow programmer. Are you making any progress recently with your molten salt Thorium reactors? Or at least help destigmatise use of nuclear power that could so much help the world now and in the coming years.
嗨,盖茨先生,我是你的忠实粉丝,同时也是一名程序员。你的熔盐钍反应堆最近有什么进展吗?或者它至少有助于消除核能的污名化,这对现在和未来几年的世界有很大帮助。
The Terrapower reactor designs (there are 2) both use liquid sodium as the coolant and uranium as the fuel. We are making excellent progress although the Ukrainian war meant our uranium fuel is delayed. The first reactor is being built in Wyoming and should be running by 2030. This can make a huge contribution to climate challenges since it will be low cost and super safe. I was just in West Virginia learning about their energy economy and hearing about projects there like the FORM battery factory (a BEV company) that was just committed.
泰拉能源(Terrapower)的反应堆设计(有两个)都使用液态钠作为冷却剂,使用铀作为燃料。尽管乌克兰战争导致我们的铀燃料获取被推迟,但我们正在取得卓越进展。第一座反应堆正在怀俄明州建造,预计将于2030年投入运行。这会为应对气候挑战做出巨大贡献,因为它成本低廉且超级安全。我刚刚在西弗吉尼亚州了解到他们的能源经济,并听说了那里的项目,比如刚刚投建的FORM电池工厂(一家纯电动汽车BEV储能公司)。
·    ·    ·
The cost of living has skyrocketed, wages ate stagnant. A lot of people are effectively in survival mode. How do we get corporations and the ultra wealthy to pay better wages, pay their taxes. More rather, what steps do we take to create an economy that's beneficial for the masses, not a select few?
生活成本飞涨,工资却停滞不升。事实上,很多人陷入了“生存模式”,艰难过活。我们该如何让企业和超级富豪支付更高的工资、为员工缴纳税款?更确切地说,我们应该采取什么措施来创造一个有利于大众而非有利于少数人的经济?
I am surprised taxes have not been increased more. For example, capital gains rates could be the same as ordinary income rates. I know things are tough for a lot of people.
我很惊讶没有增加更多的税款。举例来说,资本利得税率可以与普通收入税率持平。我知道很多人的生活都很艰难。
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Mr Gates, with the benefit of hindsight regarding your years of involvement with Microsoft, what is the single biggest thing you wish you had done differently?
盖茨先生,回顾你在微软工作的这些年,你最希望自己当初换种方式重来的最重要的一件事是什么?
I was CEO until 2000. I certainly know a lot now that I didn't back then. Two areas I would change would be our work in phone Operating systems (Android won) and trying to settle the antitrust lawsuit sooner.
我在2000年之前一直担任首席执行官。现在我确实知道了很多当时不知道的事情。我想改变两件事,其一是我们在手机操作系统方面的工作(安卓系统获胜),还有就是试图更早地解决反垄断诉讼。
·    ·    ·
Hi Bill, what's your view on veganism/plant-based diets as a mean to reduce climate impact Also, how can this be educated to people on a wider scale on how to make this choice? Today we have a lot of subsides for meat/dairy to make them affordable for people and that certainly doesn't help either.
嗨,比尔,你对素食主义/植物性饮食作为减少气候影响的一种手段有什么看法?另外,如何教育更多的人如何做出这一选择?今天,我们有很多针对肉类/乳制品的补贴,让人们能够负担得起,但这实际上并没有什么帮助。
For people who want to go Vegan that is great, but I don't think most people will do that. There are companies making "beef" in new ways and people working to still use cows but reduce the methane emissions. I have backed a number of innovators in this space including Beyond and Impossible and Memphis. I think eventually these products will be very good even though their share is small today.
对于那些倾向素食主义的人来说,这是件好事,但我并不认为大多数人会这样做。有一些公司用新的方式制造“牛肉”,还有一些人致力于仍然使用奶牛(作为原料),但减少其甲烷排放。我投资了这一领域的许多创新者,包括植物肉公司Beyond、Impossible和培养肉公司Memphis。我认为这些产品最终会非常好,尽管它们现在所占的市场份额还很小。
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Is technology only functional for you nowadays, or is there a still hobby aspect to it? Do you for instance still do nerdy or geeky things in your spare time; e.g. write code?
时至今日,技术对你来说只是一种工具,还是你仍然将其作为爱好呢?比如,你在闲暇时间是否还在做一些书呆子或极客会做的事情,比如写代码?
Yes. I like to play around and code. The last time my code shipped in a Microsoft product was 1985 - so a long time ago. I can no longer threaten when I think a schedule is too long that "I will come in and code it over the weekend."
没错,我喜欢琢磨和编写代码。我的代码最后一次在微软产品中发布还是在1985年——那是很久以前的事了。我现在觉得若一个(项目的)时间拖得太久的话,我再也不能威胁说出“让我来,我周末两天就能写完代码了”这种话了。
·    ·    ·
Why are you so focused on healthcare & vaccines?
你为什么如此关注卫生保健和疫苗?
When I saw that kids were dying who could be saved for less than $1000 per life, I knew that had to be the top priority for my giving back. There was almost no one funding work on diseases like malaria which was killing over a million kids a year then. We have made progress, but it is still 400K and we are committed to get it to zero eventually.
当我看到孩子们正在死去,而每个生命只需不到1000美元就能挽救时,我知道这必须是我回馈社会的首要任务。那时几乎没有人资助疟疾等疾病的研究,而当时每年有超过100万的儿童死于疟疾。我们已经取得了一些进展,但全球每年仍有40余万人因感染疟疾死亡,我们承诺最终将这个数字降至零。
·    ·    ·
Hey Bill, what are some of your new generation ideas for adopting better and safer climate change?
嘿,比尔,关于实现更好、更安全的气候变化,你有什么新想法?
The key on climate is making the clean products as cheap as the dirty products in every area of emission - planes, concrete, meat etc... This is the only way we can ask all the countries in the world to change. If it costs a lot extra, we won't succeed.
气候问题的关键是在各个排放领域中(飞机、混凝土、肉类等)使清洁产品的价格低至与污染产品相当。这是我们能够要求世界上所有国家做出改变的唯一方法。如果清洁能源的成本高出太多,我们就不会成功。
·    ·    ·
How short are you on What are you excited about in the year ahead??
在新的一年里,你对什么感到兴奋?
First being a grandfather. Second being a good friend and father. Third progress in health and climate innovation. Fourth helping to shape the AI advances in a positive way.
首先就是我即将当祖父了。其次是要继续承担好朋友、好父亲的角色。第三,在卫生和气候创新方面取得进展。最后,以积极的方式帮助实现人工智能的进步。
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Have you gotten around to reading David Foster Wallace yet?
你有没有抽出时间阅读大卫·福斯特·华莱士的书?
I have read most of what he has written except Infinite Jest. I have it on my shelf. If someone wants something great from David Foster Wallace look at his commencement speech called This is Water (Kenyon College 2005). It is profound. The movie on his book tour called The End of the Tour is also very good.
除了《无尽的玩笑》,我读过他写的绝大部分作品。我的书架上有这本书。要是有人想从大卫·福斯特·华莱士那里学习到一些可贵的知识,可以观看他2005年在凯尼恩学院的毕业演讲《这是水》。这篇演讲立意深刻。一部讲述他图书签售之旅的电影《旅程终点》也很不错。
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What are you currently reading?
你最近在读哪本书?
I am reading the book The Song of the Cell by Sid Mukherjee. All of his books are excellent - right up there with Atul Gawande. I have a lot of books about China to help me figure out how we avoid a lose-lose relationship.
我正在阅读悉达多·穆克吉的《细胞之歌》一书。他所有的著作都很出色——与阿图尔·加万德齐名。我有很多关于中国的书来帮助我想清楚如何避免双输的关系。
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What is your favorite time period in history and why?
你最喜欢历史上的哪个时代,为什么?
I have studied the Victorian Era in the UK and some of the great US Presidents most of all. I find the periods of scientific innovation fascinating. In terms of the best time to live though the current time is dramatically by far the best time to be alive - as one of my favorite authors Steven Pinker explains in several of his books.
我研究过英国的维多利亚时代,也了解过一些最伟大的美国总统。我发现科学创新的时代尤其令人着迷。但要说最适宜生活的时代,必然要数当代,现在是迄今为止生活条件最好的时代——正如我最喜欢的作家之一史蒂芬·平克在他的几本书中阐述的那样。
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You have a great friend with Warren Buffett (the oracle of Omaha) and sit on his board with Berkshire Hathaway. Do you help to choose a company to look into buying? Also do you still team up with Warren to play competitive bridge?
你和沃伦·巴菲特(奥马哈的神谕)是很好的朋友,你也是(他所创建的)伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事会成员。你会帮助他选择收购的公司吗?还有,你还会和沃伦一起打竞技桥牌吗?
I had dinner with Warren on Sunday and he is doing well at age 93! He is incredibly wise. I am no longer on the board of Berkshire, but he still shares a lot of advice with me and his generosity to all the foundations he gives to, including the Gates Foundation, is incredible. We still play some bridge but not as much as we used to. He got me hooked on bridge and I play with some of his friends including some tournaments.
周日我和沃伦共进了晚餐,他己经93岁高龄,但身体依然康健!他是一位非凡的智者。我已不再是伯克希尔公司的董事会成员,但他仍然分享给我很多建议。他对所有受他捐助的基金会(包括盖茨基金会)的慷慨,非凡而不可思议。我们仍然时常打桥牌,但不像以前那么频繁了。他让我迷上了桥牌,我和他的一些朋友一起玩,也参加了一些锦标赛。
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What’s the biggest way an individual can contribute to the climate solution?
个人能够为解决气候问题做出的最大贡献是什么?
You are a voter, a consumer, a giver, and a worker. In every one of those roles, you can help. Buying an electric car helps. There will be options to pay a bit extra to offset your travel emissions coming soon (I do this for all of my emissions and my family). We need support on climate from both parties in the US and in all countries. Staying hopeful is a good thing!
你是选民,是消费者,是捐赠者,也是工作者。在以上每一个角色中,你都可以出一份力。买一辆电动汽车就会有所帮助。很快你就可以选择通过额外支付少额金钱来抵消你的旅行排放(对于我和我家人所有的排放,我都会这样做)。我们需要美国两党和所有国家对气候问题的支持。保持希望是一件好事!
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Mr Gates, what was your favorite movie or TV show you saw this past year?
盖茨先生,去年你最喜欢的电影或电视节目是什么?
White Lotus Season 2 was quite good if I can say that. Congratulations to Jennifer Coolidge on her Golden Globe. The Bernie Madoff special was also good. Tehran was suspenseful. The latest Avatar was good.
要我说的话,《白莲花度假村》第二季相当不错。祝贺詹妮弗·库里奇获得金球奖。伯尼·麦道夫特辑也不错。(译者注:伯尼·麦道夫是美国历史上最大的诈骗案制造者,其操作的“庞氏骗局”诈骗金额超过600亿美元。)以色列间谍惊悚剧《德黑兰》很有悬念。最新上映的《阿凡达:水之道》也很好看。
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