可信度加权的决策对责任人的决策来说,可起到补充和挑战(而非推翻)的作用。在目前桥水的机制中,每个人都可以提出意见,但对其可信度的衡量要基于一些证据(他们的过往表现、测试结果、其他数据等)。决策的责任人可以推翻可信度加权的投票结论,但要为此负责。当决策者选择用自己的判断取代其他可信度较高的人所达成的共识时,他是在进行一次大胆的宣示,将接受最终结果的验证。
Believability-weighted decision making is a way of supplementing and challenging the decisions of Responsible Parties, not overruling them. As Bridgewater’s system currently exists, everyone is allowed to give input, but their believability is weighted based on the evidence (their track records, test results, and other data). Responsible Parties can overrule believability-weighted voting but only at their peril. When a decision maker chooses to bet on his own opinion over the consensus of believable others, he is making a bold statement that will be proven right or wrong by the results.
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