中国人口首次负增长，新生人口956万！面对育率急剧下降，如何为想生孩子的人创造条件？（附视频&演讲稿）

1月17日上午，国家统计局公布数据显示，2022年年末，全国人口141175万人，比上年末减少85万人，这一数据包括31个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口，不包括居住在31个省、自治区、直辖市的港澳台居民和外籍人员。

全年出生人口956万人，人口出生率为6.77‰；死亡人口1041万人，人口死亡率为7.37‰；人口自然增长率为-0.60‰。面对人口负增长，迫切需要把握人口负增长的起始条件、内在逻辑和趋势特征，客观看待、主动适应、积极应对人口负增长。

其实，在过去的50年里，全球的生育率下降了一半。新生人口数减少对于人类的未来意味着什么？是什么因素导致了大家不爱生孩子？记者Wajahat Ali是一名筋疲力尽的老父亲，他在TED舞台上分析了当前这一趋势将引发什么意想不到的问题，更重要的是——如何为想生育的人创造条件。

I'm an exhausted dad. Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators, who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.

我是一个精疲力尽的老父亲。目前为两个小独裁者所有，受其支配， 他们对我实行铁腕统治， 尽管还穿着尿不湿。

Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately, I've been paying close attention to a particular headline. It seems around the world, in developed countries, people are having fewer babies. From North America to Europe to China to Japan, there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates. In fact, over the past 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved.

或许是因为 最近一直和小孩子待在一起， 我对于一个话题格外关注。看起来在全球所有发达国家， 人们都在减少生育。从北美到欧洲，从中国到日本， 出生率确实呈现连续下降的趋势。事实上，在过去的50年里， 全球的生育率下降了一半。

What the heck is going on? Now, my friends who don't want kids, all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies. And many of you are sitting there right now, saying, "Waj, there's also overpopulation, there's also high birth rates, which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries, there's also orphan kids who still need parents, there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone, and oh, by the way, we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.

到底发生了什么？我身边不想生孩子的朋友 都把气候变化 说成是不要孩子的原因。在座的很多人现在肯定想说：“嘿，人口过剩问题 以及在很多非洲和中东国家 仍然有高生育率， 而且还有孤儿需要养父母， 总体资源仍然处于不足， 啊顺便说一句， 我们正面临严重的碳排放问题， 它正在毁灭地球。”

I hear you, I hear you. And yet, despite all this chaos, I still think we should have babies. I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity, side by side.

我听到了，都听到了。但是尽管有这些声音， 我还是认为我们应该生孩子。我相信我们可以，且应当， 为地球、为人类， 并肩作战。

Now, if I could take it personal for a second, I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies. Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids. Young, happy, fresh.

此刻，如果允许我暂时以己度人， 我能理解为什么有些人 对于要孩子持怀疑态度。这里有张照片， 是我和我太太有孩子之前拍的。年轻，快乐，有活力。

Here's a photo of me after having kids. A broken, defeated husk of a man.

这一张照片是有孩子后的我 一名憔悴落魄的老父亲。

Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult. A Porsche. Here's what I actually drive. A Honda Odyssey minivan.

这是我以为， 作为一名成年人我会开的车， 一辆保时捷。这是我现实里的车， 本田奥德赛家用车。

For the minivan. Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space, and good mileage, good mileage.

说到家用车， 现在我只在意舒适的空间， 还有低油耗，还省油哦。

Now, I just want to stress that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats of global warming and climate change. I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies is a deeply, profoundly personal choice. And that many who want to are unable. But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin. At how not having enough new people is going to be a major problem moving forward.

在这里我想要强调， 我完全了解全球变暖和气候变化 带来的巨大而可怕的风险。我只是想说明选择生孩子 是一个非常认真而深刻的个人选择。但很多人的选择其实身不由己。不过今天在这里， 我们来看看问题的另一面：新生人口不足将如何成为 影响进步的主要问题。

According to the World Health Organization, we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation. A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years -- yeah, it might be underpopulation. So a question: what happens if that number dips below 2.1? There's going to be a domino effect. As all of us get older, and live longer, there's going to be a shrinking younger population, which is going to lead to rising labor shortages in the world's biggest economies. I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany. Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue. Less tax revenue means less money and resources to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon. I'm talking about pensions and health care. It seems every generation is indeed connected.

根据世界卫生组织的数据， 基于当前人口， 每位女性平均需要生育2.1个子女 才能保证有足够的人口完成代际更替。很多人认为在100年内 人口过剩将成为问题， 但事实上，问题可能是人口稀缺。那么问题来了：如果女性人均生育数 低于2.1会怎样？这会引发一场多米诺效应。当所有人年龄逐步增加， 平均寿命延长， 青年人口数量将不断减少， 这会导致劳动力短缺， 尤其是在世界几大经济体国家。比如说美国、中国、日本、德国， 青年工作人口减少意味着税收减少， 税收减少意味着更少的钱和资源 来用于我们都将赖以生存的 社会保障工程， 也就是养老金和医疗保险。看起来每一代人其实都息息相关，

But how the heck did we get here in the first place? Well, in some cases, it was intentional. Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times. Let's stop in China. Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980. In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy, largely limiting most parents to having just one kid to combat overpopulation. Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.

但我们一开始是怎么会 走到这条路上的呢？在某些情况下，这是人为造成的。让我们跟着这辆德罗宁车 回到更简单的时代， 停下看看中国的情况， 在迪斯科衰败和帝国反击战之间的 1980年代。1980年代， 中国决定实施独生子女政策， 限制了大多数夫妻只能生育一个孩子 以抑制人口过剩问题。来看看当时中国的一些宣传画报， 很漂亮。

Now, fast-forward to 2019. Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015, China's birth rates have largely declined. In fact, the falling population in China is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people. If trends continue, China's population is actually going to peak in 2029, before entering "unstoppable decline." China's government is so freaked out right now that it's actually doing new propaganda -- it's begging couples to have children for the country.

现在，我们快进到2019年。尽管在2015年 中国停止了计划生育， 生育率仍然有显著下降。事实上，中国的人口下降 正在削弱其发展的最大推动力—— 人口。如果这个趋势继续下去， 中国的人口将在2029年达到顶峰， 然后就开始进入“无法阻止的下降”。中国政府现在对此非常担忧， 并制作了新的宣传政策—— 鼓励夫妻们为了国家而生孩子。

Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan, home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.

再来看看日本的情况， 那是我爱的本田奥德赛家用车的故乡。

Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones. The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year. And unlike other countries, it has not been able to replace its population numbers through immigrant workers. There will be labor shortages and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs. Now, Japan has introduced two solutions. First, a financial incentive. Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies, with the money increasing with each additional child being born. This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama. It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8. But it did not gain traction across Japan.

日本目前的成人纸尿裤产量 已经高于婴儿纸尿裤， 日本的儿童数量 已经连续37年呈现下降趋势。不同于其他国家， 日本还无法通过外来移民工作者 实现人口数量更替。日本将面临劳动力短缺， 将没有足够的钱维持社会保障工程。现在日本开始引入两种解决方案。第一是经济激励。日本一些地方政府 向生育的夫妻提供经济补贴， 生的越多补贴越多。这种方法2014年在Ama镇 产生了效果， 当年该地的女性人均生育数 从1.66上升到了1.8， 但纵观日本全国 这一方法并未取得显著效果。

In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack. He told young people, "You're selfish for not having babies." Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac. Surprise, I know, surprise. Who would have thought?

2018年，日本执政党的一位领导人 尝试了新方法， 他告诉年轻人， “你们不生孩子是非常自私的行为。" 令人震惊的是， 羞辱并没有产生激励作用。太震惊了，我知道， 谁能想到会这样呢？

Let's take the DeLorean to Europe, the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce. The UK and much of Western Europe has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman, which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45. Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids. He said families where the women have four or more kids will no longer pay income tax. Pretty good, right, pretty good. At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal, which once offered women in a particular region the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.

现在再把目光移到欧洲， 芝士的故乡，我喜欢吃， 就是不会读。英国和西欧的一些国家 女性人均生育数大约在1.7左右， 这至少比匈牙利的1.45要好一些。现在匈牙利首相维克托·欧尔班 正推行一种新政以激励人们生孩子。他宣布育有四名 或更多孩子的女性所在家庭 可以永久不用缴纳所得税。很棒对不对？再怎么说也比俄罗斯2007年的提案 好多了， 当时在俄罗斯某个特定区域， 生育多的女性会被奖励一台冰箱。

Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work. But hold on, pump the brakes. Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit the population of Muslims and people of color. He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color has to be "mixed with those of others." Subtle. Unfortunately for Orbán, and much of the EU, the birth rates are not high enough right now to be replenished without immigration. Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline. So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim.

好吧，这个政策也没有什么效果。但别着急，我们言归正传， 欧尔班一开始提出这个提案的目的 是想限制穆斯林和 有色人种的人口数量。他表示他不认为匈牙利的传统、 文化和肤色 一定要“和其他民族进行融合”。这很微妙。很不幸， 无论是匈牙利还是多数欧盟国家， 就目前的生育率而言， 都无法在没有移民人口的情况下 实现代际更替。纵观欧盟各国， 都呈现人口下降趋势。所以在欧洲， 棕色皮肤和穆斯林将是大势所趋。

Just saying.

我只是说说而已。

The question remains: Why aren't people having enough kids? Why is the birth rate declining in these countries? In some cases, it's because women are more literate, more educated. They have more economic opportunities -- applaud. All good things, all good things, yes.

那么还是这个问题：为什么儿童人口数不足？为什么这些国家的生育率在降低？在有些国家， 这是由于女性的受教育程度 较以前更高了。她们在经济上有了更多的机会—— 为她们喝彩。没错，这都是好的现象。

In India, this has been fantastic, it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number. Women also have more access to birth control, more control over their reproductive lives, all good things. But in the United States, in particular, a lot of young people are opting out of having kids, largely cite the same reason: financial concerns.

印度的情况则非常神奇， 生育率确实下降了， 但仍然保持在神奇的2.1之上。女性对计划生育有了更多的控制， 对育龄也有了更多的掌控。这都是很棒的变化。但是在另一些区域，尤其是美国， 很多年轻人拒绝生育 给出的都是同一个原因：经济上的考量。

Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America, where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017. The United States is the most expensive country in the world to give birth. If you do not have insurance, it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby, if everything goes perfectly. That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK? So, congratulations, you just had a baby, but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what? The United States is the only industrialized country in the world that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave. "Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely. Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!" My wife and I, both working parents, pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare. If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year. That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK. I have one, I do not need 10.

我们一起来到我的故乡，美国， 2017年美国生育率达到历史新低。全世界范围内， 美国是生育花费最高的一个国家。如果你没有保险， 生一个孩子大概要花3.2万美元 (约22万人民币）， 这还是在一切顺利的理想情况下。这差不多能买一辆新的本田 奥德赛了好嘛！那么，恭喜你， 假如你刚刚生了一个孩子， 但这个孩子的经济生产力为0， 而且你知道吗？美国是世界上唯一一个 不强制执行带薪产假的工业国家。“年轻的母亲，恭喜你刚生了个孩子， 真可爱， 快回去工作，否则你就要被辞退了！“ 我和我太太都是全职工作者， 在弗吉尼亚州每月找人看孩子 大约要花3500美元。算算看，一年就是4万美元 （约27.5万人民币）。这简直可以买一辆全新 高配的本田奥德赛了啊！我有一辆了，不需要再买十辆了。

所以这是我大胆的建议。让生养孩子更容易一些吧。看起来为了将来， 我们现在就要开始努力， 帮助那些希望为人父母的夫妻。为他们提供能承受的医疗保险， 为他们提供合适的儿童保育， 为他们提供带薪产假。2017年， 法国生育率在欧盟居于首位。为什么会这样？很大程度上是因为其生育政策 对职业女性的保护。包括有补贴的儿童托管及带薪育儿假。感谢上帝，中国和日本终于也醒悟了， 开始推行类似的政策。这真是太棒了。

我知道你们很多人听我说了这么多， 还是觉得我们能对未来进行的最好投资，就是不生孩子。我尊重你们的选择。我知道你们为什么会这么想。我也知道在座的很多人想要生孩子， 但你们对未来充满恐惧。作为一个父亲，我感同身受。我对未来感到害怕。

一个月前我写下了这句话。但是三天前的一件事才是直击要害， 当时我正在TED。三天前，我的妻子哭着给我打电话， 我在酒店房间里接到电话， 她说，“我正在医院打电话。” 我们的小女儿Nusayba， 得名于一位勇敢的公主， 因为胃里有个肿块而被送到医院。检查结果显示 她的肝脏中有很多肿块。今天早上， 我们得知她已经是肝癌四期。

It has been a challenging week. It has been a challenging week. And if I may, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down, everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread. On behalf of my family, my wife, and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this -- thank you for just being decent and kind this week. So thank you.

这一周对我来说太挑战了。太挑战了。如果可以，我想占用一点时间， 感谢TED的所有工作人员， 上上下下每个人， 幕后的、绿幕室的、以及其他演讲者。我谨代表我的家庭、我的太太， 以及父母—我来自巴基斯坦的父母 让我一定要说：谢谢你们在这一周对我的友好和善意， 真的非常感谢。

These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies. I talked to my wife, and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead, we both concluded that we regret nothing. Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made. Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy, and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk. And yes, I hope you've been paying attention, we need to invest in babies in developed countries if we want to help save our economy and pensions. But that's not the reason you have babies. That's not the main reason. Babies have always represented humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.

这是我的挚爱，我的宝贝 Ibrahim和Nusayba。我和我太太聊过， 尽管有这样可怕的消息和 接下来的一场苦战， 我们都觉得毫不后悔。觉得要孩子是我们一生中 做过最好的决定。我们的孩子带给我们和 这个世界如此多的快乐， 生孩子确实是一场冒险， 但人生就是一场冒险。是的，我希望你们都已经注意到， 在发达国家我们需要有更高的生育率 以促进或是拯救经济和社会保障体系。但这不是你们生育的原因。至少不是主要的原因。孩子总是能代表 人性中最美好、最迷人的无限可能性。

And if we in developed countries, as a whole, opt out, and don't invest in present and future generations, then what the hell's the point? What's the point of being on this absurd journey together? And so, for those who can and who choose to, for those who can and who choose to have kids, may you pass on this beautiful thing called life, with kindness, generosity, decency and love. Thank you.

如果身处发达国家的我们， 从整体上选择拒绝， 对这一代和下一代不抱有希望， 那人生还有什么意义？这荒谬的人生还有什么意义？那么对于那些有能力的人， 那么对于那些有能力并选择生育的人， 愿你们传承这名为生命的美好之物， 心怀善良、宽容、 体面、与爱。谢谢。