较可信的观点很可能出自以下两种人：（1）至少曾经三次成功解决过相关问题；（2）对所得结论的因果关系分析很有道理。
做不到上述任一点的人，就不是可信的。对于能做到其中一点的人，可以认为其具有一定的可信度。如果两点都能做到，那就是最可信的。要特别当心有些并无实践经验而只是夸夸其谈的人，以及没有较好的逻辑的人，这些人对其自身、对他人都很不利。
Remember that believable opinions are most likely to come from people 1) who have successfully accomplished the things in question at least three times, and 2) who have great explanations of the cause-effect relationships that lead them to their conclusions.
Treat those who have neither as not believable, those who have one as somewhat believable, and those who have both as the most believable. Be especially wary of those who comment from the stands without having played on the field themselves and who don't have good logic, as they are dangerous to themselves and others.

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