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2023年已经到来了，迅速回想一下你的2022年flag还好吗？新的一年，你是否又立了新的flag？
倒了又立，立了又倒，总有一些flag陪伴大家一年又一年。看着年初立下flag的那条朋友圈被“公开处刑”，你是否也痛心疾首，暗下决心——新年第一天立flag可一定要谨慎啊！尽管你紧身的做了New Year Resolutions, 但计划总是能成为幻想，不信问下自己…
今天英语演讲君和大家分享题为《为什么我们的计划总是失败？》的英文视频，相对系统性地分析了失败的原因，同时还提供了一份让你Flag屹立不倒成功秘笈。
为什么你的
新年flag总是会失败？
↓↓↓ 上下滑动，查看演讲稿 ↓↓↓
Most New Year's resolutions fail. 
So in this video I want to talk about the science of why they fail  and how to avoid that so your New Year's resolutions actually succeed  and I want to tell you about three of my New Year's resolutions for 2020. 
The first one is to stop going to news websites  I find I kill a ton of time by doing that  Now don't get me wrong, I do think it's important to know what's going on in the world,  but I just don't think following the day-to-day developments of the news cycle is the way to do that  so instead I am going to get one newspaper delivered to my house every week  and that is how I am gonna stay informed  Research has shown it is more effective to make resolutions at new years than at any other time of the year. 
In fact, one study found that people who made resolutions on January 1st  were 10 times as likely to stick with them 6 months later than people who made their resolutions at other times of the year  And January 1st 2020 is the first day of a new decade  so it may be even better. 
Side note: those of you who want to argue that the first day of the decade is actually January 1st 2021,  while you may technically be correct because there was no year 0,  we went straight from 1 BC to 1 AD  for all intents and purposes psychologically this January 1st is the first day of the 2020s  and that is what matters. 
So the technicalities I think, are unimportant. Abd this argument should be put to bed  The 2020s start on Jan 1  But now the bad news: even a resolution made at New Year's will most likely fail  which is why gyms are packed in January, but they start to clear out by March  what research has found that only around 8% of people can stick with their resolutions through the end of the year  So why is this? And, how do we avoid that trap?  I think it all starts with a misconception  Oh no, oh no, oh no, oooooh no. 
Foooget. *sigh*  Well this was going part of the video where I ran on the treadmill but the treadmill's just broken  so I think the misconception is, that people think that in order to make big changes in their lives  that they have to make some sort of really big effort  I mean let's say your goal was to run a marathon  you might plan on running ten kilometers three times a week  that seems kind of proportionate to the end goal  and you might be excited and really motivated to do it for the first few weeks  but at some point that motivation is gonna lag  and running 10k is gonna seem too hard  and so you're gonna sort of fall back into old habits  the misconception is thinking you need to go big,  and so being over ambitious with your goals and then not being able to commit and stick to them  I'm gonna fix this. 
The truth is you're much better off if you pick small targets that you can hit consistently  that's the idea behind James Clear's book "Atomic Habits"  which is this idea that if you can get just 1% better every day at something, it will take a minimum amount of effort  but over time the effects will compound just like compound interest  and James Clear proposes the two-minute rule:  'pick something that you can do in just two minutes'  So if you want to run a marathon, start by say running two minutes a day  that is something that you can't say you don't have time for  and once that habit sticks, well then you can try to extend it into something more ambitious  the next problem with resolutions is they are too often vague  the most common resolutions that people make are to  lose weight, exercise more, and to eat better. 
the problem is those things are so nondescript that it's hard to know if you're making progress  and it's really easy to regress into your old habits  so the science around this says you need to be specific  AND, write down your goals  people who write down their goals are 40% more likely to achieve them  that is pretty significant just by taking that step of putting pen to paper  and I'm thinking here in this video you should put your New Year's resolutions in the comments  because at least that is taking a step towards committing yourself to a goal for the year  My second new year's resolution for 2020 is to write in a daily planner every day of this year  In fact I can be more specific than that. 
Um, I will write one word in this book each day  now I know one word might seem unhelpfully ridiculously little to write in this book  but I want to commit to this idea of starting small  with the idea that if I get in the habit of making the time to at least write down one word on each one of these pages,  well then maybe some days I will write more than one word  and that will be helpful in terms of planning my day a little bit  and so hopefully I will be more productive than I would have been otherwise  and then it's really important to track your progress in an obvious and visual way  and I'm going to use the everyday calendar by Simone Giertz  Oddly satisfying. 
Where there's a button for every day of the year  and you can push it and the light turns on  and that is really satisfying  so I think this will encourage me to write down a word early in the day so that I can go and turn on the light for that day  what's great about this is it's a very visual way to track my progress  and to have it in an obvious place where I can look at it all the time  and I'll put it in the back of shot for some of my videos in 2020  
so you guys can see how I'm progressing towards this goal  so the third major problem with New Year's resolutions is that people seem to think  it's about having more willpower or motivation, being able to resist temptation better  but willpower is a finite resource  and it can be depleted that there are gonna be some bad days and that is when you're gonna relapse  so relying on willpower is not an effective strategy  and research has shown that people who have better self-control  actually just have to exercise it less  the way they're able to do that is by structuring their environments so they don't have to exercise their willpower  I find in my kitchen it's always like the treats and snacks which are left out on the counter  but the veggies which are like tucked away in the vegetable crisper drawer  and I get it because you know that's where the veggies are meant to go to keep them crisp,  but the problem is if I don't see them, if they're not in my line of sight, I will just end up eating what's on the counter  and not going digging for veggies  so we need a way of changing our environments so that we make better choices  which brings me to my third and final new year's resolution for 2020:  I am deleting social media apps off of my phone  I'm getting rid of Instagram and Twitter. 
You are watching the exact moment that I do that  the reason for this is I find I just kill way too much time going into these apps  and research shows that any tiny distraction that you have during your day  takes you you know something like 20,25 minutes to get back into your work  and so I'm losing a lot of time to just procrastinating with these apps  so I'm getting rid of them off my phone  so I don't have to use my willpower to not click them mindlessly as I normally would  and I've actually downloaded an app that will block news sites and block my social media while I'm working  because that way I don't have to restrain myself  the systems that I put in place will restrain me for me  I know a lot of this sounds a little bit CGP Grey  but I think he's on to something  you don't need to follow the day-to-day movements of the news cycle and you do not need to be scrolling social media all the time  particularly when you're trying to get useful work done  so that's how I feel  I want to optimize my 2020 by locking down all my potential distractions not needing any willpower,  and I've got some small, specific, and written down,  targeted with tracking plans for 2020  so I'd love to know what you're planning for 2020 for your New Year's resolutions  What are your plans for the next decade? 
如何实现新年立下的Flag?
↓↓↓ 上下滑动，查看演讲稿 ↓↓↓
Did you set a New Year's Resolution for yourself?
你今年有什么新年计划吗？
How's that going?
进展如何？
I don't know when in the year you're watching.
我不知道你在看这个视频的时候是哪一年了。
But if I had to bet on the status of your resolution, it's probably not flourishing, but failed or foregone.
但是呢，就假设你这一年给自己设定了一个新年计划吧，而且我敢说，你的计划现在肯定没有怎么进行下去，而且很可能会失败。
This is usually what the effort curve on resolutions looks like.
这就是我们所说的努力曲线。
If New Year's is new to you, you're forgiven for not knowing.
如果新年对你来说很新奇，你做不到也是情有可原的。
But come on, this isn't your first Resolution Rodeo.
但拜托，这不是你第一次给自己设立新年目标了。
You've been here before saddled up to a resolution.
你以前也有过这样的经历，给自己的新年设定一个计划。
Gotten thrown off in short order.
但很快这些计划就都被抛诸脑后了。
Only to come back next year to pick a buck of a different color.
然后你发现，接下来的每一年都是这样，就是给自己选一个不一样的硬币而已。
Or worse, the same.
或者更糟，连硬币都是一样的。
Riding.
鞭策。
Rolling.
前进。
Retreating.
撤退。
Returning.
返回。
Year after year after year of your unchanging life until a disappointed reaper calls time.
年复一年，又一年，你的人生一直在循环，直到失望的收割者收回你的时间。
New Year's Resolutions suck.
新年计划真的就那样。
Human behavior change is really hard.
人类真的很难改变自己的行为。
And the Resolution Rodeo.
只会给自己设定计划是没有用的。
This is not the way.
这不能解决问题。
Instead, to accomplish what you want out of resolutions, positive life change but in a better way.
相反，若你真的下定决心想要实现自己的梦想，积极地改变自己的生活，你需要一种更好的方式。
Allow me to suggest a gentler idea.
在这里，我想提出一个比较温和的想法。
Give yourself a theme.
给自己定一个主题。
Instead of setting yourself up to fail with: I'm going to lose x pounds by next year, or I'm going to read one book a week, at least.
而不是定一个肯定会失败的目标，比如说：到明年我会减掉x磅，或者至少每周读一本书。
A theme would be something like Year of Reading or Year of Health.
主题可以是，比如说，阅读年或健康年。
Now if that sounds a bit broad, that's the point.
你可能觉得这听起来有点宽泛，这就是问题的关键。
For some things, precision matters.
对于某些事情来说，精确度很重要。
For others, it doesn't.
但是对于另一些事情来说，情况并非如此。
And when trying to build yourself into a better version of yourself, exact data points don't matter.
当你试图把自己打造成一个更好的自己时，准确的数据点并不重要。
All that matters is the trend line.
重要的是趋势线。
If the trend is going in the right direction, so are you.
如果趋势是朝着正确的方向发展的，那么你肯定也是。
Just moving a trend from negative to positive is hard enough without defining falling short of a goal as failure.
仅仅是将一种趋势从负面转变为正面就已经够难的了，所以我们更不能将达不到目标定义为失败。
Heck, even just decelerating the negative is a positive.
因为，即使是负面因素，只要一直在减少，那也是积极的。
Is there something you want more of in your life?
在你的生活中，有没有什么是你更想要的？
Something you want less of?
有没有什么是你不想要的？
Well, life is a branching path.
生活是一条不断分叉的小路。
And it's the trend of your decisions, some big, but mostly small, that will get you to more or less.
你的决定的趋势，或大或小，或多或少，会让你变得更好。
Stuck in a queue, what to do?
卡住了，怎么办？
Well, if it's the Year of Reading, why not open the book, instead of opening the anything else.
如果今年是阅读之年，那就不要打开其他的东西，打开一本书来看看吧。
That's it.
就这样。
You were at a branch and went one way instead of the other.
你在一个分岔路口，选择了其中一条路。
Having a theme is like creating a friendly bot to follow you on the path, to help notice branches and consider choices with you,
定一个主题就像创建了一个友好的机器人来跟随你，帮助你注意到路上的分岔路口并与你一起考虑如何选择，
reminding you to be a little different in little moments sometimes.
提醒你在某些时刻要做出不同选择。
An example, one year my theme was Novelty.
举个例子，有一年我的主题是新奇。
I felt like things had become too same-y.
我觉得身边的一切都太老套了。
Rather than resolve: I'm going to do n new things per t time.
但是我没有说，我要在t时间里做n件新的事情。
It was just Year of Novelty.
这只是新奇的一年。
So, when it made sense, why not try the new instead of the known?
所以，重点就是去尝试一些新的而不是已知的事物！
It's the Year of Novelty!
今年是新奇之年！
Now, I didn't go crazy.
我没有疯狂。
But that time was more novel than normal.
但那一年确实比以往任何一年都更令我感到新奇。
Mission accomplished.
任务就完成了。
A good theme can't fail.
一个好的主题是不会失败的。
Because just having a theme-bot along will point out paths you wouldn't have noticed otherwise, which will start to change you.
因为只要有一个主题，那么你就会注意到原本不会注意到的路径，而这就会改变你。
More on that in a moment.
稍后将详细介绍这一点。
In picking a theme, go with something that has a nice broad name for the general direction you want to navigate your life.
在选择一个主题时，选择一个漂亮且概括的名字来代表你想要的生活的大致方向。
And it is navigation.
这就是导航。
The diverging paths of life are hidden under the fog of the future.
分道扬镳的人生道路隐藏在未来的迷雾中。
You can't plan the route and then fail to follow it.
你不能先计划好路线，然后又不去执行它。
Because there is no map.
因为没有地图。
And unseen obstacles await.
看不见的障碍在等着你。
At any moment, you are where you are and can only navigate from there.
在任何时刻，你都在你所在的地方，只能从那里导航。
Perhaps you started a Year of Health focused on weight loss or gains, before realizing there's a more foundational problem.
也许你想要专注于减肥或增重的健康之年，然后才意识到还有一个更根本的问题。
You haven't failed, it's still Year of Health.
你没有失败，今年仍然是健康年。
The broadness of a theme allows its meaning to change.
主题的广泛性允许其含义发生变化。
You started out wanting to read more books.
你一开始想要读更多的书。
But maybe as you went on, you realized academic papers are where it's at.
但也许当你继续下去的时候，你会意识到学术论文的重要性。
Or that reading reading just doesn't work for you.
或者，单纯的阅读对你并不起作用。
And listening reading is the way to go.
而听着读才是一条正确的道路。
You're still on theme.
你还在主题上。
The theme can change because so will you.
主题可以改变，因为你也会改变。
Having a theme, you will notice paths you didn't before.
有了一个主题，你会注意到你以前没有过的道路。
This gets you to think about your thinking.
这会让你思考自己的想法。
And thinking about your thinking changes your thinking, which changes who you are.
思考你的想法会改变你的思维，从而改变你是谁。
So, a broad theme allows its meaning to adapt with you, without the guilt of having failed to meet the goals of a Past You who doesn't exist anymore.
因此，一个宽泛的主题可以让它的意义与你相适应，而不会因为未能实现一个不存在的过去的目标而感到内疚。
I did Year of Order for a while.
我做过一段时间的秩序之年。
But what Order meant to me at the end was different from the start.
结束时的秩序对我来说与开始时的意义不同。
And that's fine.
这很好。
So themes should be broad, directional, but most importantly resonant.
因此，主题应该是宽泛的、定向的，但最重要的是要能引起共鸣。
Resonance is a physics phenomenon where, if you have a glass, and tuning forks of different sizes,
共鸣是一种物理现象，如果你有一个不同大小的玻璃杯和音叉，
bringing the right-sized humming tuning fork near the glass makes it hum the same note.
把大小合适的音叉靠近玻璃，使它发出同样的音符。
Words are tuning forks for the brain.
词语是大脑的音叉。
When picking a theme, you're looking for a word or words that cause your brain to vibrate in resonance.
当你选择一个主题时，你要寻找一个或多个能让你的大脑产生共鸣的词。
I've been talking about themes for years and getting people to try them.
多年来，我一直在谈论主题，并让人们在这方面不断尝试。
Here are some of the words I've seen people use.
以下是我见过的一些人们常使用的词汇。
The details of what they mean to anyone don't matter.
它们不在乎一些人的意义之类的细节。
What matters is if there's something that strikes you.
在乎的是有没有什么东西能打动你。
Calls out to your brain.
呼唤着你。
That is resonance.
这就是共鸣。
So pick a broad, directional phrase that resonates with you and run with it.
所以，选择一个能引起你共鸣的宽泛、有方向性的短语，并用它来表达。
Your brain and the theme will make it work.
你的大脑和主题会让它发挥作用。
Now if this seems very hippy dippy lovey dovey huggy wuggy fuzzy wuzzy.
现在，你可能还是会觉得这玩意儿看起来虚无缥缈、毫无定论、没什么意义、不好把握。
That's fine.
没问题。
Not all tools need sharp edges.
并不是所有的工具都需要锋利的边缘。
I think of it this way.
我是这样想的。
You should be trying to build a life you want to live.
你应该努力建立你想要的生活。
And themes are a fuzzy, high-level, longer term way to navigate your brain at a broad area of change.
主题是一种模糊的、高层次的、更长期的方式，让你的大脑在广泛的变化领域中导航。
Smaller, and specific-er are the systems in life you might want to set up.
更小，更具体，是你可能想要在生活中建立的系统。
Below that are the targets those systems might or might not generate.
下面是这些系统可能会或可能不会产生的目标。
And at the most concrete and sharp is the action or decision Current You is currently taking.
最具体和最尖锐的是你目前正在采取的行动或决定。
This level of detail is perhaps a story for another time.
这种程度的细节可能要下次再说了。
But creating a theme is the bigger and broader to guide the smaller and shorter.
但就是要创造一个主题越大越广的目标，来引导越小越具体的结果。
Lastly, you may have noticed the examples were all Year of thing.
最后，你可能已经注意到，这些例子都是一年一次的。
But that's mainly because I've been trying to gently introduce you to the idea.
但这主要是因为我一直在试着温和地向你介绍这个想法。
Resolutions are a year, why not swap them for a theme instead?
所以，新年计划，为什么不换个主题呢？
But if you're still here, a year is way long.
但如果你还觉得一年的时间太长了。
Again, fog of the future.
再说一次，未来是一团迷雾。
A season is a nice human length of time.
每个季节都是一段美好的时间。
In a winter of learning, you can learn a lot.
在学习的冬天，你可以学到很多东西。
But you do need to get started.
但你确实需要开始行动了。
Because it's also not so long as to feel forever.
因为它也没有感觉到的那么漫长。
Nature's clock ticks on reminding you that flowers bloom but briefly.
大自然的时钟滴答滴答地提醒你，花期很短。
The summer sun will wane.
夏日的阳光将会消退。
Leaves eventually drop.
树叶最终会掉落。
Snow falls and snow melts.
雪落，雪化。
And flowers bloom but briefly.
花期不再。
You can be unchanging through all that.
你可以依然保持不变。
But whenever you are, if you've never had a theme, give yourself time to find one that resonates with you and try it out in the coming season.
但无论你在哪里，如果你从来没有一个主题，给自己时间找到一个能引起你共鸣的主题，并在下一次努力去实现。
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