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Business | A changing core
商业 | 苹果正在转移业务重心
英文部分选自经济学人202200731商业版块
Business | A changing core
商业 | 苹果正在转移业务重心
Apple already sold everyone an iPhone. Now what?
如今几乎人手一部iPhone。苹果公司下一步会做什么？
The ubiquitous device is becoming a shop window for the firm’s services
随处可见的iPhone正在转为展示苹果公司服务业务的橱窗。
Fifteen years after its launch, the iPhone “continues to change the world”, said Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, as the company reported quarterly earnings on July 28th. It has certainly changed Apple. In an otherwise bumpy week for technology stocks, the world’s most valuable company beat forecasts to report a modest year-on-year increase in revenue. That was in large part thanks to the iPhone, which generated sales of more than $40bn in the latest quarter.
iPhone问世已有15载，但其仍在“不断改变着世界”，7月28日苹果发布财报时其首席执行官库克如是说。（无论你是否认同），有一点可以肯定，iPhone确实改变了苹果公司。若非有苹果的喜人表现，本周美国科技股的表现可谓是“惨淡经营”。作为全球市值最高的公司，苹果财报超出预期，营收同比小幅增加。这其中，iPhone功不可没——这一项业务就为公司贡献了超400亿美元的营收。
注释：
2022财年Q3，iPhone营收406.7亿，较去年同期395.7亿，同比增长3%
https://www.sohu.com/a/574282866_104421
Yet as the worldwide smartphone market matures, the iPhone’s dominant role inApple’s fortunes is diminishing. Whereas at its peak the device made up two-thirds of the firm’s revenue, in the latest quarter its contribution was just under half (see chart). In Apple’s flying-saucer-like headquarters in Cupertino, California, engineers are working on all manner of gadgets that might one day succeed the smartphone. But a big part of Apple’s future is already clear: a growing chunk of revenue and an even larger slice of profits will come not from any product, but from services.
然而，随着全球智能手机市场日趋成熟，iPhone在苹果商业帝国里的统治地位正在不断被蚕食。巅峰时期，iPhone一项业务就能贡献公司营收的2/3，而当前季度这一比例已经不足50%（见图表）。在加州库比蒂诺市这座外形酷似飞碟的苹果总部大楼中，工程师们正在研究各式小型电子设备。也许有朝一日，它们能再续iPhone的辉煌。但苹果的未来蓝图已经大致明晰，为它带来越来越多收入与利润的将是服务业务，而非公司产品。
For its first three decades Apple Computer made just what its name suggested. In 2006 its Macintosh desktops and laptops were outsold for the first time by something else: the iPod music player earned Apple more revenue. The next year the company launched the iPhone, and dropped Computer from its name. Over the following decade there were times when it could reasonably have been called Apple Telephone: in 2015 iPhone sales amounted to $155bn, twice as much as Apple made from all its other activities combined.
苹果最初名为“苹果电脑公司”（Apple Computer），在其创立之初的30年里以开发和销售电脑为主。2006年，第一次有一项产品销售额超过了Macintosh电脑（包括台式机与笔记本），这个产品就是iPod。次年，iPhone面世，苹果便从其名称中抹去了“电脑“一词，将其改名为“苹果公司”（Apple）。在之后的10年间，甚至可以一度称其为“苹果电话公司”（Apple Telephone），毕竟iPhone销售额在2015年达到了1550亿美元，是其他经营业务收入之和的两倍。
Now, after a decade and a half of expansion, the global smartphone market has plateaued, according toIDC, a data firm, which also forecasts no growth over the next four years. Apple still has room to increase its market share. Although in America the iPhone accounts for nearly half of smartphone sales, in Europe it makes up more like a quarter, according to Kantar, a research firm. Nonetheless, the years of rocket-powered annual growth are over.
据国际数据公司（IDC）报道，全球智能手机市场在经历了15年的扩张之后已进入了稳定期，IDC预测接下来四年不会有什么增长。而苹果市场份额仍有增长空间。据研究公司凯度（Kantar）调研显示，虽然在美国，苹果几乎占据智能手机销量的一半市场份额，但在欧洲，这一比例却更接近四分之一。即便如此，拥有火箭式年增长的日子已一去不复返了。
Apple has brought in new revenue with other devices. Its AirPods have become the market leader in smart earphones and the Apple Watch is the most successful of its kind. Last year these “wearables” and home accessories contributed a tenth of Apple’s revenue. In 2023 the company is expected to launch its first augmented-reality headset, a technology Mr Cook has described as “profound”. Apple is making interfaces for cars and may one day build the rest of the vehicle, too. Some in the company predict that its forays into health care will eventually rank among Apple’s greatest contributions.
但另一方面，不断有其它设备成为苹果新的收入来源。AirPods已成为智能耳机市场的领头羊，Apple Watch也成为智能手表市场最成功的典范。去年，这些可穿戴设备和智能家居产品贡献了苹果公司收益的十分之一。预计苹果公司将于2023年发布首款AR头戴设备，库克评价该项科技具有深远意义。苹果目前正在研发车载接口，未来或许苹果会加入造车大军，推出“苹果汽车”。公司一些人预测，所进军的医疗健康领域会最终成为苹果最大贡献。
As it dreams up more gadgets to sell to more people, however, Apple is employing another strategy in parallel. The company has so far put 1.8bn devices in the pockets and on the desks of some of the world’s most affluent consumers. Now it is selling access to those customers to other companies, and persuading those who own its devices to sign up to its own subscription services. As Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, said on a recent earnings call, the Apple devices in circulation represent “a big engine for our services business”.
苹果公司梦想将更多的设备出售给更多的人,但与此同时，它也在采取另一种策略。苹果公司已向世界上最富裕的消费者售出了从随身携带的到放在办公桌上的各类设备总计达18亿台。如今，它正在向其他公司出售触达这些客户的通道，并说服那些拥有其设备的顾客注册苹果的订阅服务。正如苹果首席财务官（CFO）卢卡·梅斯特里（Luca Maestri）在最近财报电话会议上所说，流通中的苹果设备代表着“我们服务业务的一个巨大引擎”。
The strategy is picking up speed. Last year services brought in $68bn in revenue, or 19% of Apple’s total. That is double the share in 2015. In the latest quarter services’ share was even higher, at 24%. Apple doesn’t break down where the money comes from, but the biggest chunk is reckoned to be fees from its app store, which amounted to perhaps $25bn last year, according to Sensor Tower, a data provider. The next-biggest part is probably the payment from Google for the right to be Apple devices’ default search engine. This was $10bn in 2020; analysts believe the going rate now is nearer $20bn. Apple’s fast-growing advertising business—mainly selling search ads in its app store—will bring in nearly $7bn this year, reckons eMarketer, another research firm.
事实上，苹果正在加速推进其服务导向的商业策略。去年，服务业务为苹果贡献了680亿美元的收入，占其总收入的19%，这一比例是2015年的两倍。而在最新披露的季度财报中，这一数字已经攀升至24%。尽管苹果并没有对这部分收入进行细分，但据数据服务商Sensor Tower估计，来自应用商店（App Store）的收入或是其中的最大部分，光去年一年，该项业务进账就高达250亿美元。谷歌支付的费用可能是紧随其后的第二大收入来源。为了让谷歌搜索成为苹果设备的默认搜索引擎，谷歌每年需要向苹果支付大笔费用——2020年谷歌支付了100亿美元，而分析师估计这笔费用如今可能已接近200亿美元。另一家研究公司eMarketer则认为，苹果的广告业务——主要是在AppStore中销售搜索广告——正在快速增长，今年将为苹果带来近70亿美元的营收。
Most of the rest comes from a range of subscription services: iCloud storage, Apple Music and Apple Care insurance are probably the biggest, estimates Morgan Stanley, an investment bank. More recent ventures like Appletv+, Apple Fitness, Apple Arcade and Apple Pay make up the rest. New services keep popping up. Last November Apple launched a subscription product for small companies called Apple Business Essentials, offering tech support, device management and so on. In June it announced a “buy now, pay later” service. The company claims a total of 860m active paid subscriptions, nearly a quarter more than it had a year ago.
据投资银行摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）估计，苹果其余的服务收入大部分来自各类订阅服务：iCloud、Apple Music和Apple Care是其中的大头。剩余部分来自苹果新近的商业项目，如Apple TV+、Apple Fitness、Apple Arcade和Apple Pay。苹果依旧在源源不断地推出新的服务：去年11月，苹果推出了名为Apple Business Essentials的订阅产品，旨在为小型公司提供技术支持、硬件管理等服务；今年6月其又宣布推出“先买后付”（Apple Pay Later）的服务。苹果声称目前拥有共计8.6亿活跃付费订阅用户，同比增长近25%。
注释：
本段中涉及的几项苹果服务分别为（按推出时间排列）：
2011年推出的：iCloud，苹果云存储服务；Apple Care，苹果延保服务。
2014年推出的：Apple Pay，苹果支付。
2015年推出的：Apple Music，苹果音乐。
2019年推出的：Apple TV+，视频订阅服务；Apple Arcade，游戏订阅服务。
2020年推出的：Apple Fitness，苹果健身。
2021年推出的：Apple Business Essentials，为小公司提供苹果软件管理功能。
2022年即将推出的：Apple Pay Later，先买后付服务，2022年6月宣布，即将于9月和IOS 16一起发布，此服务不局限于分期购买苹果设备，而是可在使用Apple Pay时选择Pay Later，在六周内分四期付完。
Services are a juicy business. Some, notablytv, are costly for Apple and seem to be partly about burnishing the company’s image (successfully so, if its “best picture” Oscar for “Coda” in March is any indication). Others, though, particularly the app-store business and “Google tax”, contribute handsomely to the bottom line. In the latest quarter Apple’s gross margin on its products was 35%, whereas on services it was 72%. In 2021 services accounted for 19% of Apple’s revenue but 31% of its gross profit.
服务业务的利润非常丰厚。诚然，有些服务部分缘于提升公司形象，而且可能成本还不菲。电视业务便是其中的代表——当然，苹果砸的钱也没有打水漂，《健听女孩》今年3月为苹果捧回了奥斯卡最佳影片。然而苹果的其他的服务业务，特别是应用商店业务和“谷歌税”，对利润贡献巨大。在最近一个财季中，苹果产品总体的毛利率为35%，但服务的毛利率却高达72%。2021年，服务业务的贡献只占总收入的19%，但毛利贡献比却达到了31%。
注释：
1. CODA：《健听女孩》（Children of Deaf Adults），在2021年圣丹斯电影节首映后，被苹果以2500万美元高价买下版权并在Apple TV+播放，后于2022年3月获得奥斯卡最佳影片。
2. Google tax：此处指前文提到的，谷歌需要为苹果设备内置谷歌为默认搜索引擎而付费。
3. bottom line：the line at the bottom of a financial report that shows the net profit or loss
Apple’s business model “is evolving from maximising unit growth to maximising installed-base monetisation”, believes Erik Woodring of Morgan Stanley. He argues that pushing further into services could add another $1trn to the company’s $2.6trn market capitalisation. The average Apple user spends about $10 a month on Apple services (including app-store purchases), much less than they might spend on subscriptions to services like LinkedIn or Peloton, points out Mr Woodring, suggesting plenty of “runway” for growth.
摩根士丹利的埃里克·伍德林（Erik Woodring）认为，苹果公司商业模式的重心“正在从如何最大化用户增长，转变向如何最大限度挖掘现有用户的商业价值”。如果苹果进一步发展服务业务，公司市值将在目前的2.6万亿美元的基础上再增加1万亿美元。每位苹果用户每月花费约10美元用于购买包括应用商店在内的各种服务，比在领英或Peloton等订阅服务上消费少得多，这说明苹果的服务业务收入还有很大的增长空间。
注释：
Peloton，美国互动健身平台
For now the market treats Apple as a hardware business. Its shares trade at an 18% discount to tech platforms such as Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and a 49% discount relative to streaming services likeNetflix, calculates Morgan Stanley. Apple seems to be nudging investors towards thinking of it as a services firm. It has, for instance, increased disclosures in recent years about its estimated number of “active” devices. Mr Cook declared recently that integrating Apple’s services with its hardware and software was “at the centre of our work and philosophy”. Soon it may even sell its hardware on a subscription basis. In March Bloomberg reported that Apple was working on an iPhone subscription plan, offering regular hardware updates for a monthly fee.
但是，市场目前仍将苹果视作一家硬件公司。据摩根士丹利估算，和谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技平台相比，苹果的股价折让18%，而与奈飞（Netflix）等流媒体服务相比，股价折让高达49%。苹果正在努力让投资者相信它是一家服务公司。例如，近几年，苹果加大信息披露力度，预估“活跃”设备的数量。库克最近也表示，将硬件、软件和服务结合起来是“苹果产品和理念的核心所在”。在不久的将来，苹果甚至可能以订阅的模式销售硬件产品。今年3月，彭博社报道称，苹果正在计划提供iPhone订阅服务，用户可以按月支付费用，定期更新硬件设备。
Pushing into services carries risks. Consumers are not used to subscribing to devices (though many already pay for their phone in instalments, which isn’t so different). Apple would need to find a way to offer subscriptions without alienating the retailers and mobile-phone operators through which it currently sells 85% of its iPhones, points out Mr Woodring. Services face particularly acute regulatory risks, as European trustbusters circle the app store. And although subscriptions offer steady income, not all services are recession-proof. Apple warned on July 28th that growth in services revenue would decelerate in the next quarter, partly owing to what Mr Cook called the “cloud” hanging over digital advertising.
将业务重心转向服务业也存在风险。消费者不太习惯以订阅服务购买使用设备（尽管许多人是通过分期付款的方式购买的手机，这与订阅设备大同小异）。伍德林指出，苹果需要找到一种提供订阅服务的方式，能够保证不疏远零售商和手机运营商，毕竟目前85%的iPhone是通过他们销售的。随着欧洲反垄断机构围攻苹果应用商店，服务业务也面临着尤为严峻的监管风险。虽然订阅服务可以提供稳定的收入，但并不是所有的服务都能够抵御经济衰退。苹果公司7月28日表示，下个季度其服务业务收入的增长将会放缓，原因之一是库克所说的笼罩在数字广告之上的“乌云”。
注释：
苹果引入的应用追踪透明（App-Tracking Transparency，ATT）赋予了用户更高的隐私权，但却剥夺了应用访问用户数据并从中获利的权利。应用追踪透明机制使得用户能够自由选择同意或拒绝应用程序跟踪他们并向广告商输送数据。
Hardware will probably always be Apple’s main business. It may even be that one of the secret projects in the Cupertino flying-saucer turns into another iPhone-like smash-hit. But with nearly 2bn Apple devices in circulation, there is a big and only partially tapped opportunity to sell people things to do with them. Consumers will doubtless keep buying Apple’s shiny gadgets. From now on, when they do so, they will be acquiring not just swanky new devices for themselves but tiny digital storefronts for Apple.
硬件可能永远都会是苹果的主营业务。有可能现在就有一个硬件项目正在苹果总部悄悄进行,有朝一日能像像iPhone一样红得发紫。然而另一方面，市面上20亿部iPhone背后巨大的商业潜力更值得深挖。无疑，消费者会继续消费苹果的精美产品，只不过这个时髦的新设备如今有了第二重的身份：一面兜售各项苹果服务的小型数字橱窗。
翻译组：
Alison，“贪玩又自由的风筝”
Charlie，本科在读，实事求是
Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前
Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方
Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋
校对组：
Jemma，一手抓吃饭，一手抓学习
Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
Des，愿你半生追逐便士，归来依旧心有月光
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