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Terms of surrender
投降的条件
英文部分选自经济学人20220702期财经版块
Terms of surrender
投降的条件
What past market crashes say about “capitulation”
过去的市场崩盘对 "投降式抛售 "有何启示
Looking back, it is easy to think of stockmarket crashes as abrupt shocks. And some of the most dramatic of them were indeed abrupt. At the onset of the covid-19 pandemic, the s& p 500 index of American stocks plummeted by 34% in a little over a month. The last time Russia defaulted on its debt, in 1998, the index took six weeks to travel from zenith to nadir, nearly taking Long-Term Capital Management and the rest of Wall Street with it. Quickest of all was the lightning bolt of October 19th 1987, or “Black Monday”, which wiped 20% off the market in a single day.
回望过去，我们很容易认为股灾如山倒，突如其来，令人猝不及防。其中一些最具戏剧性的崩盘的确如此。在新冠疫情开始蔓延的时候，美国股票市场的标普500指数在一个多月内暴跌了34%。俄罗斯上一次债务违约发生于1998年，当时标普500指数在六周时间内从顶点跌至谷底，几乎把长期资本管理公司（Long-Term Capital Management）和华尔街的其他公司都拖下水。用时最快的莫过于1987年10月19日的闪电战——“黑色星期一”，一天之内将股票市值抹去了20%。
注释：
1.zenith：The zenith of something is the time when it is most successful or powerful. 鼎盛时期
2.nadir：The nadir of something such as someone's career or the history of an organization is its worst time. (职业生涯或机构历史上的)最低点
3. Long-Term Capital Management：长期资本管理公司是一个投机性避险基金，由所罗门兄弟的前副董事长暨债券交易部主管约翰·梅韦瑟于1994年成立，董事会成员包括了因制定期权定价公式，而在1997年共同获得诺贝尔经济学奖的麦伦·休斯和罗伯特·C·默顿。LTCM在成立第一年就获得了年化报酬率超过40%的巨大成功，然而在1998年俄罗斯金融危机后，却在不到四个月的时间里造成了46亿美元的巨大亏损，不得不请求美国联准会的财政介入。不久之后，该基金在2000年初倒闭。
The biggest downturns, though, have tended to be much more drawn-out affairs. The bloodbath in equities that accompanied the financial crisis of 2007-09 was no single, vertiginous plunge: it played out over 17 months. Talk of the dotcom bubble “bursting” in the early 2000s can obscure the fact that the journey from peak to trough took two and a half years. The greatest crash of all, beginning in 1929, took nearly three years to run its course.
然而，最为低迷的市场行情往往是“钝刀子割肉”的持久战。2007-09让股票市场血流成河的金融危机，并非一场短暂的断崖式暴跌：它的下行周期持续时长超过17个月。关于21世纪初互联网泡沫“破裂”的谈论往往掩盖了一个事实，即股市从顶点跌至谷底足足用了两年半的时间。至于那次始于1929年的史上最大崩盘，股市足足花费了将近三年才完成止跌企稳。
注释：
1. downturn：If there is adownturn in the economy or in a company or industry, it becomes worse or less successful than it had been. 衰退
2. drawn-out：You can describe something asdrawn-out when it lasts or takes longer than you would like it to. 拖延的
3. vertiginous：Avertiginous cliff or mountain is very high and steep. 高而陡峭的
4.trough：Atrough is a low area between two big waves on the sea. (波浪间的) 波谷
In each case, losing streaks were interspersed by rallies lasting weeks and fitful days when not much of anything happened. If not quite months of boredom punctuated by moments of terror, they were long, uncertain slogs. Today, six months after America’s equity market started falling in the face of persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy, another slog might lie ahead. But when the bottom finally arrives, what will it look like?
每次崩盘，“跌跌不休”的行情里也总会夹杂着一些持续数周的反弹或者波澜不惊的横盘走势。尽管不能说这是平淡的行情里穿插着几个黑色的崩盘时刻，对于投资者而言，这也至少是一段痛苦、迷茫而又漫长的煎熬。今天，面对持续的通货膨胀和加码的紧缩货币政策，美国股市已下跌超过六月，另一段煎熬可能就在眼前。但当谷底最终来临，将会是什么样子？
Like a bubble, capitulation—investors’ jargon for the final, frenzied phase of a rout—is accompanied by a kind of mania. It is the part of the crash when something snaps in the collective consciousness and everyone who is going to give up and sell does. Perhaps they are retail investors who kept their nerve after losing a third of their capital but, seeing another 20% of value vanish, conclude that it really might go to zero and rush to the exit. Perhaps they are professionals who know full well it’s a bad time to sell, but can’t get their risk manager (or their clients) off their back. Either way, it is the violence of the shake-out itself that creates the market bottom: those who refuse to sell at the height of the panic are unlikely to lose their cool further down the line. After the frenzy is over, prices start to climb again.
投降式抛售（capitulation）是一个行话，描述市场崩盘最后阶段里投资者的疯狂抛售行为。和泡沫一样，投降式抛售也是一种疯狂行为的表现。在这种形式的崩盘中，集体意识丧失了理智，每一个想要投降和抛售的投资者都真的举了白旗。也许他们是散户，在损失了三分之一的资本后还有斗志，但当他们看到另外20%的价值消失，就会认为真的可能血本无归，于是急忙退出。也许他们是专业人士，知道现在是抛售的糟糕时机，但却无法说服他们的风险经理（或是客户）不要抛售。无论哪种情况，正是疯狂抛售本身让市场见了底：那些在恐慌达到最高潮时依然岿然不动的投资者，也不太可能在此后失去理智。疯狂抛售结束后，价格又开始攀升。
注释：
get off my back spoken phrase ：used for telling someone to stop criticizing you or telling you what to do 
shake-out  noun： a major change in an industry that causes some companies to close or a lot of people to lose their jobs
So much for recognising capitulation in hindsight. Spotting it as it happens is harder. Perhaps some clues can be gleaned from how historical crashes have played out. Start with the crudest measures: the length of the crash and the size of the drop from peak to trough. Excluding this year, the s& p 500 has notched up 14 bear markets—falls of more than 20% compared with a recent peak—since the second world war. The average downturn took a little over 11 months and resulted in a decline of more than 32%. Both measures suggest that this year’s losses, which hit 23% in June before rebounding a little, may have some way yet to run.
上文尽是对于投降式抛售的“事后诸葛亮”，然而真正困难的是能在一开始就察觉其苗头。或许我们可以从历史上崩盘的演变过程中汲取经验。首先关注粗略的衡量指标：崩盘的时间跨度和峰顶跌至谷底的规模。抛开今年不算，自二战以来，标普500指数已历经14次熊市（当市场调整相较于前期高点跌幅超20％时，我们称市场进入熊市）。平均下跌周期为11个多月，平均跌幅超32％。两个指标均表明，尽管今年的跌幅在六月已达23％（之后略有反弹），市场仍处于下行通道。
注释：
1. capitulation：投降式抛售指当多头完全放弃价格上涨的希望时，在熊市的谷底突然爆发的最后一波抛售浪潮。"A sudden and final wave of selling at the bottom of a bear market, when all the bulls have given up hope of price rises."
2. notch up: 短语动词 赢得;达到 If you notch up something such as a score or total, you achieve it.3. 扩展阅读：“「财经分析」标普500指数13日跌入熊市 衰退担忧再次重挫纽约股市”https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1735570800327514169&wfr
For a more granular picture, consider the rout in March 2020. One lesson from it is that trading volumes spike as the market plummets. Towards the end of the crash, shares in the s& p 500 were changing hands at more than double their average rate in the weeks running up to it. Volumes for stocks in Britain’s ftse 100 tripled. Another signal is that a large proportion of stocks in an index plunge in value. While the downturn in 2020 was at first led by a handful of stocks, by the last phase pretty much everything was flashing red. True capitulation is reached when contagion spreads not just from one stock to another, but across indices and asset classes.
要想更深入细致地了解，可以看看2020年三月份的暴跌。一个经验就是随着市场暴跌，交易量持续飙升。在崩盘接近尾声时，标普500成分股的换手率较之前几周翻了一番还多。英国富时100指数（FTSE 100）股票成交量上涨了两倍。我们还注意到，指数中很大比例的成分股市值暴跌。虽然2020年的暴跌最初只涉及一部分股票，但到了最后阶段，几乎全线飘红。而当危机不仅从一只股票蔓延至另一只股票，而是跨越了指数和资产类别时，真正的投降式抛售俨然已到来。
注释：
1. granular：finely detailed; highly detailed; having many small and distinct parts.
2. contagion：You can use contagion to refer to the spreading of ideas, or attitudes, r feelings that you consider to be bad or unacceptable from one group of people to another.
Set against those measures, this year’s bear market is yet to reach its culmination. Investors are gloomy, but not so much that they have sold their favourite risky assets. Downward lurches have begun to include defensive stocks, but many of those in sectors including pharmaceuticals and telecoms are still up on the year. And the drops do not yet smack of panic: the s& p 500’s worst day this year was its 39th-worst since the turn of the century. Trading volumes, for the most part, suggest a market that is just about holding its nerve.
按照这些指标，今年的熊市还尚未到达终点。投资者很悲观，但也还没到抛售自己最喜爱的风险资产的地步。下跌的趋势已经开始影响防御性股票，但包括制药和电信在内许多行业的股票今年仍然是上涨的。而今年的跌幅和之前恐慌时期相比可谓小巫见大巫：标普500今年表现最差的一天在本世纪最差交易日排行榜中只排到第39位。大多数情况下，交易量表明市场还算冷静。
注释：
defensive stocks: 防御性股票在股市里面投资者把能够抵抗大盘整体下跌具有防御功能的股票称作防御性股票。简而言之就是在股市处于弱势状态时，公路、海运、机场、能源食品饮料，医药生物，公用事业等业绩稳定，持续成长性强的企业由于未来业绩预期稳定，投资者为回避未来预期不确定所带来的风险时往往会将投资转向一些预期稳定的企业。防守型股票是一种典型的贝塔值远低于1的股票，通常在0.5左右，既当整个市场上涨时它的表现要落后于大盘，而在市场下跌时，其跌幅也要比整个市场小，甚至还有上涨表现，因此是在熊市或牛市接近结束时投资者选择持有规避风险的最佳品种。
If capitulation is tricky to pinpoint as it arrives, profiting from it is harder still. How many prices need to be plummeting in lockstep before it becomes time to buy? Trading volumes might have spiked, but have they peaked? Are you sure that you will keep your head when all around you are losing theirs? Studying historical crashes is one thing. Putting their lessons into practice is entirely another.
如果投降式抛售在它到来时很难被确定，那么从中获利就更难了。需要多少价格同步暴跌才能是抄底的时机？交易量可能已经飙升，但是它们已经到顶了吗？当你周围的人都在损失的时候，你还能够保持冷静吗？研究历史上的崩盘是一回事，把这些经验教训付诸实践，则完全是另一回事。
翻译组：
Ellie
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Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝
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Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康
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