1
导读
Angela | 导图
资深教师，不搞科研，专心干饭，早日玩转铁三
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
The coming food catastrophe
粮食灾难近在眼前
英文部分选自经济学人20220520期社论版块
Leaders | War and farming
社论 | 战争和农业
The coming food catastrophe
粮食灾难近在眼前
War is tipping a fragile world towards mass hunger. Fixing that is everyone’s business
战争阴霾下，世界正逐渐陷入大规模饥饿。应对危机，人人有责。
By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.
俄乌冲突将会摧毁战场之外的人们的生活，波及范围之广连普京本人都会感到懊悔。受新冠疫情、气候变化和能源冲击的影响，全球粮食体系已经屡遭重创，战争更是令其雪上加霜。乌克兰大部分的谷物和油籽出口暂停，俄罗斯的出口则遭受威胁。以卡路里计算，俄罗斯和乌克兰的食品出口大约占到全球交易额的12%。今年年初以来，小麦价格上涨53%。印度宣布因严重高温天气禁止小麦出口之后，小麦价格在5月16日又继续上涨了6%。
The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the un secretary general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve.
面临生活成本危机已成为共识，但这远不能体现出即将到来的灾难有多么严重。5月18日，联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯警告称，在接下来的几个月里，全球粮食短缺一触即发，危机一旦发生，将可能持续数年。由于主食价格高涨，全球有16亿人无法确保获得充足食物，数量增加了4.4亿。将近2.5亿人正处在饥荒的边缘。如果战争迟迟不能结束，俄乌两国的出口继续受限（这种情况很可能发生），数亿人将会陷入贫困。届时，政治动乱将会蔓延，儿童成长发育将会受阻，有人将会活活饿死。
Mr Putin must not use food as a weapon. Shortages are not the inevitable outcome of war. World leaders should see hunger as a global problem urgently requiring a global solution.
普京总统万万不能将食物用作武器。食物短缺也不是战争的必然结果。各国领导人应将饥饿视作一场亟待全球解决方案的全球性危机。
Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the port of Odessa.
俄乌两国供应全球28%的小麦、29%的大麦、15%的玉米和75%的葵花籽油。黎巴嫩和突尼斯的谷物进口中，大约一半来自俄乌两国。对利比亚和埃及而言，这一占比更是达到三分之二。乌克兰的粮食出口养活了4亿人口。但是在双方的冲突中，乌克兰在本国的水域中布满水雷以抵抗入侵，俄罗斯对敖德萨港口进行封锁，这都导致两国的粮食出口受到影响。
Even before the invasion the World Food Programme had warned that 2022 would be a terrible year. China, the largest wheat producer, has said that, after rains delayed planting last year, this crop may be its worst-ever. Now, in addition to the extreme temperatures in India, the world’s second-largest producer, a lack of rain threatens to sap yields in other breadbaskets, from America’s wheat belt to the Beauce region of France. The Horn of Africa is being ravaged by its worst drought in four decades. Welcome to the era of climate change.
世界粮食计划署早在俄乌冲突之前就曾发出警告：2022将是灾难性的饥饿之年。作为全球最大的小麦生产国，熊猫国也表示，由于去年降雨推迟了播种，今年小麦的产量将跌入谷底。目前，不仅世界第二大粮食生产国印度正遭遇极端高温，其他产粮区也面临降雨不足的威胁——从美国的小麦产区到“法国粮仓”博斯（Beauce）地区，粮食产量都会大幅下降；非洲之角同样遭受着40年来最严重的干旱。欢迎来到气候变化的时代。
注释：
非洲之角：非洲之角因其为非洲东北部一片呈犀牛角状向东突出的地区而得名，狭义的非洲之角具体包括肯尼亚和乌干达以北、白尼罗河以东，直到红海、亚丁湾和印度洋岸之间的地区，包含索马里、索马里兰、吉布提全境和部分厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚的半岛地区。因为非洲之角的大部分地区为索马里人居住，所以也被称为索马里半岛。
All this will have a grievous effect on the poor. Households in emerging economies spend 25% of their budgets on food—and in sub-Saharan Africa as much as 40%. In Egypt bread provides 30% of all calories. In many importing countries, governments cannot afford subsidies to increase the help to the poor, especially if they also import energy—another market in turmoil.
这一切都将给穷人带来重创。对新兴经济体的家庭而言，食物支出占其预算的25%，而在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，这一比例高达40%。面包为埃及人提供了30%的卡路里。许多粮食进口国的政府无力通过提供补贴来加大对穷人的援助，尤其是在还要进口能源的情况下——能源同样面临着市场动荡。
The crisis threatens to get worse. Ukraine had already shipped much of last summer’s crop before the war. Russia is still managing to sell its grain, despite added costs and risks for shippers. However, those Ukrainian silos that are undamaged by the fighting are full of corn and barley. Farmers have nowhere to store their next harvest, due to start in late June, which may therefore rot. And they lack the fuel and labour to plant the one after that. Russia, for its part, may lack some supplies of the seeds and pesticides it usually buys from the European Union.
危机有进一步加重的风险。早在战争前，乌克兰就已将去年夏季的大部分农作物运出。尽管运输成本和风险有所增加，俄罗斯仍能够设法出售粮食。然而，未经战乱破坏的乌克兰粮仓里装满了玉米和大麦。问题是，6月下旬新一轮的作物将进入收获季，届时农民们无法腾出地方储存，也许将不得不任由它们烂在田地里。同时他们也缺乏下一次播种所需的燃料和劳动力。俄罗斯方面可能面临种子和杀虫剂的供应短缺，这些往常都是从欧盟采购的。
In spite of soaring grain prices, farmers elsewhere in the world may not make up the shortfall. One reason is that prices are volatile. Worse, profit margins are shrinking, because of the surging prices of fertiliser and energy. These are farmers’ main costs and both markets are disrupted by sanctions and the scramble for natural gas. If farmers cut back on fertiliser, global yields will be lower at just the wrong time.
尽管粮价飞涨，但世界其他地方的农民可能无法弥补粮食缺口。原因之一是价格波动性强。更糟糕的是，由于化肥和能源价格飙升，利润率正在缩水。而化肥和能源是农民的主要成本所在，两者市场都因制裁和天然气争夺战而陷入混乱。如果农民减少化肥用量，全球粮食产量将在这岌岌可危之际进一步下降。
The response by worried politicians could make a bad situation worse. Since the war started, 23 countries from Kazakhstan to Kuwait have declared severe restrictions on food exports that cover 10% of globally traded calories. More than one-fifth of all fertiliser exports are restricted. If trade stops, famine will ensue.
政客们忧心忡忡，而他们的反应可能会恶化本就糟糕的状况。自俄乌冲突开始以来，哈萨克斯坦与科威特等23个国家宣布严格限制粮食出口，受限食品贸易份额占全球食品贸易的10%（以卡路里衡量）。超过五分之一的化肥出口受到限制。一旦贸易停止，饥荒就会接踵而至。
The scene is set for a blame game, in which the West condemns Mr Putin for his invasion and Russia decries Western sanctions. In truth the disruptions are primarily the result of Mr Putin’s invasion and some sanctions have exacerbated them. The argument could easily become an excuse for inaction. Meanwhile many people will be going hungry and some will die.
这就导致了各国之间推诿塞责，西方国家指责普京对乌克兰的行为，而俄罗斯谴责西方对俄实施制裁。事实上，动荡主要是由俄乌冲突导致，而一些制裁又加剧了这些动荡。彼此推诿很容易演变成各国无所作为的托辞。与此同时，许多人将要忍饥挨饿，甚至饿死。
Instead states need to act together, starting by keeping markets open. This week Indonesia, source of 60% of the world’s palm oil, lifted a temporary ban on exports. Europe should help Ukraine ship its grain via rail and road to ports in Romania or the Baltics, though even the most optimistic forecasts say that just 20% of the harvest could get out that way. Importing countries need support, too, so they do not end up being capsized by enormous bills. Emergency supplies of grain should go only to the very poorest. For others, import financing on favourable terms, perhaps provided through the imf, would allow donors’ dollars to go further. Debt relief may also help to free up vital resources.
相反，各国需要共同采取行动，从保持市场开放开始。全球60%的棕榈油产自印度尼西亚，该国于本周解除了临时出口禁令。即便最乐观的预测显示仅20%的粮食可以以这种方式运出，欧洲也应帮助乌克兰通过铁路与公路将粮食运往罗马尼亚或波罗的海的港口。进口国也需要支持，这样才不会被巨额账单压垮。粮食应急供应应该仅针对极度贫困国家，对其它国家而言，通过国际货币基金组织以优惠条件对进口进行资助，可以让捐款发挥更大作用。此外，减免债务也有助于释放重要资源。
There is scope for substitution. About 10% of all grains are used to make biofuel; and 18% of vegetable oils go to biodiesel. Finland and Croatia have weakened mandates that require petrol to include fuel from crops. Others should follow their lead. An enormous amount of grain is used to feed animals. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, grain accounts for 13% of cattle dry feed. In 2021 China imported 28m tonnes of corn to feed its pigs, more than Ukraine exports in a year.
此外，在寻找粮食替代品方面还有余地。约10%的谷物用于制造生物燃料; 18%的植物油转化为生物柴油。芬兰和克罗地亚已经放宽了要求汽油添加农作物燃料的规定。其他国家也应这么做。大量的谷物被用作动物饲料。据联合国粮农组织，谷物占牛干饲料的13%。2021年，中国进口了2800万吨玉米作猪饲料，该数字超过乌克兰一年的玉米出口量。
Immediate relief would come from breaking the Black Sea blockade. Roughly 25m tonnes of corn and wheat, equivalent to the annual consumption of all of the world’s least developed economies, is trapped in Ukraine. Three countries must be brought onside: Russia needs to allow Ukrainian shipping; Ukraine has to de-mine the approach to Odessa; and Turkey needs to let naval escorts through the Bosporus.
打破黑海的封锁将会立即缓解粮食短缺问题。约2500万吨玉米和小麦积压于乌克兰，相当于世界上所有最不发达国家的年消费量总和。能否打破黑海的封锁，取决于三个国家:俄罗斯需要允许乌克兰继续开展航运; 乌克兰必须排除通往敖德萨州途中的水雷; 土耳其需要让海军护航船只通过博斯普鲁斯海峡。
That will not be easy. Russia, struggling on the battlefield, is trying to strangle Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine is reluctant to clear its mines. Persuading them to relent will be a task for countries, including India and China, that have sat out the war. Convoys may require armed escorts endorsed by a broad coalition. Feeding a fragile world is everyone’s business.
这绝非易事。在战场上举步维艰的俄罗斯正试图抑制乌克兰的经济。乌克兰不愿清除水雷。说服两国让步的任务将落在那些作壁上观的国家——如中国和印度——身上。船队需要武装护送，而该护送得由更广泛的联盟来背书。养活这个脆弱的世界，人人有责。
翻译组：
Charlie，本科在读，实事求是
Alison，女，翻译路上的小蜗牛
Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬
Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点
校对组：
Hannah，女，做个废柴，保持愉快
Rex，男，口译硕士，集书狂魔，经学钢粉
Francis，一笔一口，谈笑有鸿儒，往来无白丁
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观点|评论|思考
本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
确实，如果给某件让你感觉不爽的事插上某个正大光明的理由，那似乎你就站在了道义的高处，对别人自然可以指指点点。事实上无论什么事，大抵都是可以如此的。我们可以在希望国侵入伊拉克或者伊比亚时给他安排上某种言论，譬如威胁到世界的石油安全之类的理由，但显然这在当时的语境下并不起多大的效果，甚至说蹦跶出个水花都几乎不可能。所以我们可以得出一个浅薄的结论：该举动只适合于你在实力上已经占据优势的情况，顺势的道义高地可以为你推波助澜。这其实就像银行一般，从来都只有晴天送伞，遇难时不落井下石便已经是仁至义尽了。
大概受雇的一大批所谓学者在这点上肯定是要做出一番丰功伟绩的，被同事殴打而不敢言的张某某此时便是发挥他摇旗呐喊功效的时候了，当然适时的摇尾乞怜也是需要的，关键得看准时机，这点却是最考验犬性的了，犹如走钢丝一般，稍有不慎便会落得两边都不讨好的窘境。但好处在于不需要立场，客观的自然是没有的，主观却也已经消失不见，主人想着什么便奔赴哪儿，也是逍遥快活。
粮食问题从古便已存在，大概除了粮农组织外近些年便是少了许多声音，取而代之的是气候问题，这是一个极佳的问题，各路人马汇集于此，可能是羡煞上世纪巧取豪夺，所以这次肯定要换一个花样让大家皆有赚头。粮食如此古老的主题自然不可能成为一种皆大欢喜的焦点，若是光明正大讲石油的坏处，一来让人有所警觉，二来也落得下乘，所以找一个好的主题确实下了一番苦功。
我们在观看、聆听旁人的言说时不必视其脸面，听其顿挫，而是应该绕其周身走上一两圈，观察一下周围的情况，或者无意中闲聊几句，可能如此反而会有意外的惊喜。
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