印度会成为下一个中国么?| 经济学人财经
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引擎接力
Engine repair
引擎接力
The global economy needs a new motor. Can India fit the bill?
全球经济需要一个新引擎。会是印度么?
The world could use more economic hope. The war in Ukraine has dealt a heavy blow to global growth prospects. Lockdowns and a property slowdown have sapped China, the erstwhile growth engine, of its vim. Given its size and potential, it seems reasonable to ask if India could be the world’s next economic motor. In April the imf reckoned that Indian gdp might grow by more than 8% this year—easily the fastest pace among large countries. Such a rapid expansion, if sustained, would have a profound impact on the world. But, in large part because of the shifting structure of the global economy, things are not as simple as India taking up China’s mantle.
世界需要更多的经济希望。乌克兰战争对全球经济增长前景造成了沉重打击。中国,这一昔日推动全球经济增长的源动力,如今深陷疫情封锁以及房地产趋缓的泥潭。鉴于印度的规模和潜力,提出印度能否成为下一个全球经济引擎的问题似乎是合理的。国际货币基金组织在4月估计印度今年的 GDP 增长率可能超过8%——这一增速在大国中一骑绝尘。这样的快速增长如果持续下去,将对世界产生深远影响。但是,现在就轻易断言印度将继承中国的衣钵还为时尚早,其中一个重要原因在于全球经济结构的转变。
注释:
Vim:(old-fashioned, informal) energy 精力;活力;力量
Easily:~ the best, nicest, etc. without doubt; definitely 无疑;肯定: »It's easily the best play I've seen this year. 这无疑是我今年看过的最好的一出戏。
In the 2000s China accounted for nearly a third of global growth—more than America and the European Union combined—adding new productive capacity, each year, equivalent to the present-day output of Austria. By the 2010s China’s contribution had roughly doubled, such that each year of expansion was worth an additional Switzerland. From the turn of the millennium to the eve of the pandemic, China grew into the largest consumer of most of the world’s major commodities, and its share of global goods exports rose from 4% to 13%.
从2000到2009年,中国的经济增长占全球增长总量的近三分之一——超过了美国和欧盟之和,每年的增长相当于奥地利现如今的总产出。而此后的十年,中国经济增长对世界经济增长的贡献率在此基础上几乎又翻了一番,每年的增长相当于目前奥地利和瑞士的总产出之和。从千禧年到疫情前夕,中国成长为世界上大多数大宗商品的最大消费国,全球商品出口占比从4% 上升到13%。
Could India replicate such feats? It is the world’s sixth-largest economy—as China was in 2000. And its output today stands broadly where China’s stood two decades ago. China went on to manage an average annual growth rate of about 9%. India grew by just under 7% per year over the same period. It might easily have done better, though, were it not for policy mistakes—such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s shock decision to withdraw some banknotes in 2016—and macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including an overextended financial sector. The government may have learnt from the first; both policymakers and the banks have worked to address the second. Before the war in Ukraine the imf had reckoned that India might grow by 9% this year. Some optimists argue that, in the right circumstances, India could manage such rates on a sustained basis.
印度能否复制这样的壮举?如今,印度已是全球第六大经济体,一如2000年的中国。其经济产出在全球经济中的分量也与20年前的中国相差无二。这20年间,中国保持了年均9%左右的增速,而在印度,这一数字则是略低于7%。不过,若非受困于政策失误(如莫迪2016年下发的令人震惊的“废钞令“)和宏观经济脆弱性(如过度扩张的金融业),印度或许可以轻松实现更高的经济增长。政府可能已经从第一个问题(政策失误)那里得到教训;政策制定者和银行都在致力于解决第二个问题(宏观经济的脆弱性)。俄乌冲突前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计,印度今年可能会实现9%的增长。一些乐观主义者认为,如果条件得宜,印度能够持续保持这样的经济增长率。
注释:
feat: N-COUNT If you refer to an action, or the result of an action, as a feat, you admire it because it is an impressive and difficult achievement. 功绩 [表赞许]
例:A racing car is an extraordinary feat of engineering.
赛车是工程学的一项非凡业绩。
A closer look, however, suggests that India is not a substitute for China. One problem is that the world economy is much larger than it used to be, such that a given rise in India’s gdp raises global growth by less. Sustained annual growth of 9% would vastly improve the lives of Indians, and meaningfully tilt the balance of global economic and political power. But it would not mean that the world economy would revolve around India, as it did around China over the past two decades. India’s contribution to global growth would remain smaller than that of America and Europe combined, for example.
然而,仔细研究就会发现,印度不会是下一个中国。原因之一就在于目前世界的经济规模远超当年。因此,同样水平的印度GDP增长对当今全球经济增长的推动远不及当年。9%的持续性年增长率将极大地改善印度人民的生活,并积极影响全球经济和政治力量的平衡。但这并不意味着世界经济将以印度为中心,一如过去20年以中国为中心那样。譬如,印度对全球增长的贡献仍然将小于美洲和欧洲之和。
Perhaps more important, global economic conditions may be considerably more forbidding than those that enabled China’s rise. From 1995 to 2008, the value of world trade rose from 17% of global gdp to 25%. The share of goods exports participating in global value chains rose from about 44% of world exports to 52%. China was at the forefront of both trends. It was the most dominant trading country since imperial Britain, according to an analysis of “hyperglobalisation” published in 2013 by Arvind Subramanian of Brown University and Martin Kessler of the oecd, a rich-country think-tank.
或许更重要的是,相比于当年中国得以崛起的大环境,如今的全球经济形势更显严峻了。从1995年到2008年,世界贸易额从占全球GDP的17%上升到25%。参与全球价值链的商品出口份额从占世界出口的44%上升到52%。而在这两股浪潮的风口浪尖,我们都看到了中国的身影。布朗大学的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)和富裕国家智库经合组织的马丁·凯斯勒(Martin Kessler)于2013年发表的一篇对“超级全球化”的分析指出:中国是继大英帝国之后最具统治力的贸易体。
注释1:阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)是布朗大学沃森国际和公共事务研究所的高级研究员。2014年10月至2018年7月,他曾任阿育王大学教授、哈佛肯尼迪学院客座讲师(2018-2020年)和印度政府首席经济顾问。
Source:https://watson.brown.edu/people/fellows/subramanian#:~:text=Arvind%20Subramanian%20is%20a%20Senior,the%20Center%20for%20Global%20Development.
延申阅读1:Hyperglobalisation is Dead. Long Live Globalisation
Source: https://cprindia.org/hyperglobalisation-is-dead-long-live-globalisation/
India, by contrast, is a trade minnow. On the eve of the pandemic it accounted for less than 2% of global merchandise exports. It hopes to raise that share by investing in infrastructure, providing public subsidies to manufacturers and negotiating trade deals with uncharacteristic enthusiasm. But times have changed. World trade has fallen as a share of global gdp since the early 2010s. Economic nationalism could stymie a recovery. India may nonetheless hope to increase its exports by capturing market share from other economies—including China. But businesses and governments that were once willing to rely heavily on China in the name of efficiency have become more cautious. Their reluctance to become too dependent on any one source of supply could check India’s ambitions.
恰相反,印度是贸易小虾米。疫情开始前,其全球商品出口占比不到2%。印度希望多管齐下,提振这一指标:投资基建,补贴制造商同时以前所未有的热情进行贸易磋商。但时过境迁。世界贸易在全球GDP中所占的份额已从十年前的高点回落。受困于经济民族主义,该指标能否反弹尚不可知。尽管如此,印度或仍希望通过从其他经济体(包括中国)手中抢夺市场份额,增加出口。然而,天不遂人愿,此前很多企业和政府将追求效率奉为圭臬,并不介意高度依赖中国,但如今他们则更加谨慎,虽不情愿但也不得不考虑过度依赖单一供应源的风险,这对想大干一场的印度无异于当头一棒。
注释:
1:minnow: 米诺鱼(鲤科淡水小鱼)
2:stymie v. to present an obstacle to : stand in the way of 妨碍;阻挠
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stymie
Dominating global supply chains may not be the only route to economic influence. India is a precocious exporter of tech and business services; though its gdp is only one-sixth that of China’s, its services exports only just lag behind the latter’s. Research published in 2020 by Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva and Rikard Forslid of Stockholm University argues that technological change is expanding the range of exportable services, and providing more opportunities for workers in poor countries to compete with services workers in the rich world. But while tech and business services may continue to thrive in India, their expansion may be limited by an inadequate system of education, which performs well on measures of enrolment but not of learning outcomes, and by the protected nature of rich-world service sectors, which may be better insulated against foreign competition than were industrial workers against Chinese imports.
主导全球供应链可能并非提升经济影响力的唯一途径。印度在技术和商业服务的出口方面具有巨大先天优势;尽管其GDP仅为中国的六分之一,但其服务出口上与中国相去不大。日内瓦高等学院的理查德·鲍德温(Richard Baldwin)和斯德哥尔摩大学的里卡德·福斯莱(Rikard Forslid)在2020年发表的研究报告认为,技术革新正在扩大可供出口的服务范围,并为贫穷国家的工人提供更多的与富裕国家服务业工人竞争的机会。尽管技术和商业服务在印度可能会继续蓬勃发展,但是它们的扩张,一方面可能会受限于不完善的教育体系,该体系在入学率方面表现良好,但在学习成果方面表现不佳;另一方面也会受限于富裕国家服务行业的壁垒,相较于产业工人就业遭遇中国进口商品的巨大冲击,服务行业往往能更好地隔绝来自外国的竞争。
注释:
1. precocious:A precocious child is very clever, mature, or good at something, often in a way that you usually only expect to find in an adult. 早熟的
2. insulate:If a person or group is insulated from the rest of society or from outside influences, they are protected from them. 使隔离
Subcontinental surge
次大陆的崛起
Even if India manages a growth rate of nearer 6% than 9%, that would be nothing to sneeze at. It would make India the world’s third-largest economy by the mid-2030s, at which point it would contribute more to global gdp each year than Britain, Germany and Japan combined. Indian demand for resources would then drive commodity prices; its capital markets would tantalise foreign investors. A large English-speaking population and a democratic political system, if India can keep it, may allow Indian tech and cultural exports to wield more global influence than did China’s at similar income levels.
即使增长率达不到9%,只有接近 6% ,印度也不容小觑。这将意味着,到2030年代中期印度将成为世界第三大经济体,届时它每年对全球 GDP 的贡献将超过英国、德国和日本的总和。印度对资源的需求将会推动大宗商品价格;它的资本市场将吸引外国投资者。如果印度能够继续保持庞大的英语人口和民主的政治体系,其科技和文化的出口将比类似收入水平的中国更具全球影响力。
注释:
1.Subcontinental:次大陆是指一块大陆中相对独立的较小组成部分。在英语中,“the Subcontinent”作为专有名词时可以用来特指印度次大陆。
2.sneeze:If you say that something is not to be sneezed at, you mean that it is worth having. 不容小视
3. tantalise:逗弄,招惹,使……干着急
4. wield:If someone wields power, they have it and are able to use it. 掌握 (权力)
But the world by then will have recognised, if it has not already, that the rise of China was a unique event. Indian growth will be world-changing. But you should neither hope for, nor fear, a reprise of the Chinese experience.
但到那时,世界将认识到(如果它还没有),中国的崛起是独一无二的。诚然,印度的经济增长会对世界有深远的影响,但是无需期盼,也无需担忧,不会再有另一个“中国崛起”的宏大叙事了。
注释:
reprise: In music, if there is a reprise, an earlier section of music is repeated. (乐章的)重复; 重奏
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