经济和利率评论：
美国第四季度GDP 增长明显高于预期，达到6.9%，从而使2021年成为自 1950 年代以来最强劲的增长年份。几乎与此同步的是报告期内的最高通胀率，总通胀率为 7.8%。简单地说，去年的总增长率为 14.7%（6.9%+7.8%），其中大约一半是由于价格上涨。
随着通货膨胀的加速，短期债券利率上升 0.45% 至 0.51%，因为美联储在第一季度将利率提高了 0.25%，并表示他们希望在未来 18 个月内将利率提高到 2.75%。媒体对可能的收益率曲线倒挂进行了很多报道。目前没有值得注意的收益率曲线倒挂，因为 10 年期利率从 1.51% 上升 0.82% 至 2.33%。这种增长超过了短期利率的上升，因此债券市场基本上表示他们有信心增长将摆脱停滞的速度，但从现在开始的两年内，主要问题将是增长和通胀是否会导致长期利率高于美联储加息。时间会证明一切，我们将密切关注并纳入决策的因素。
债券和被动企业所有权（股票）市场评论：
利率水平上升导致债券指数在第一季度下跌 5.85%。麦睿投资在投资组合中减持债券，并完全避免长期债券，因为我们认为新冠疫情带来的更高和更持久的通胀风险比许多人考虑的风险更大。
美股指数在 3 月初从 1 月 4 日的峰值下跌 10% 后进入修正后，第一季度下跌 4.79%。此次市场调整的主要原因是乌克兰战争，以及美联储发出加息信号以应对通胀上升。这两种风险都已经包含在我们的投资组合的考量中，因为我们的投资组合中增持基础设施和能源，这些投资在一季度表现良好，并且在通胀环境下应该会继续表现超出市场。
公共房地产投资信托 (REIT) 在第一季度下跌 6.43%，因为它们受到股市流动性普遍下降的影响。实际上，在住宅方面，由于住宅供应仍未赶上需求，他们的业务继续强劲。我们已开始将私人房地产投资信托基金纳入投资组合，以更好地通过租金来减少通货膨胀的影响，并避免由于公开交易市场的流动性导致的一般市场波动。
结论：美国经济强劲，失业率处于历史低位，劳动力稀缺，这反过来又导致价格上涨。通货膨胀和美联储的反应是目前我们主要监测的变化信号。由于通货膨胀风险，这种环境有利于企业所有权和基础设施（尽管有短期波动），而不是固定收益/债券的违约安全。
Economic and Interest Rate Commentary:
In Q1, the US quarterly GDP had significantly stronger than expected growth in Q4 of 6.9% This finished the strongest year of growth since the 1950’s. Almost hand in hand with this was the highest inflation reported in a while at a total trailing inflation of 7.8%. To putthis in fairly simply terms total growth last year was 14.7% (6.9%+7.8%) of which approximately half was due to higher prices. 
With the acceleration in inflation, short term bond rates increased 0.45% to 0.51% as the Federal Reserve increased interest rate 0.25% in Q1 and has indicated their desire toraise these rates to 2.75% within the next 18 months. Much has been made in the media about a possible yield curve inversion. Currently there is no yield curve inversion worth noting as the 10-year rate increased 0.82% to 2.33% (from1.51%). This increase is more than the rise in the short-term rates so basically the bonds markets are saying they are confident growth will escape stall speed,but out 2 years from now, the trillion-dollar questions will be does growth and inflation cause long term rates to be more than the FED rate hikes. Time will tell as there are many ranges of outcomes to consider as I monitor this.
Bond and Passive Business Ownership (Stock) Market Commentary:
The increase in the level of interest rates resulted in bond indexes to decrease 5.85% in Q1. I have underweighed bonds in portfolios and completely avoided longer term bonds as I cautioned that higher and more persistent inflation from the covid actions was a larger risk than many were factoring in.
The US stock index declined 4.79% in Q1 after falling into acorrection with a 10% decline in early March from its January 4thpeak. The headline reasons for this drawdown were the war in Ukraine, and interest rate hike signaling form the Federal Reserve in response to higher inflation. Both of these risks were contained in our portfolios as we have overweighted infrastructure and energy which did well in Q1 and should continueto do well in an environment such as this.
Public real estate investment trusts (REIT’s) declined 6.43% in Q1as they were affected by the general decrease in stock market liquidity. Inreality, on the residential side their business continues to be strong assupply of residential has still not caught up with demand. We have started to incorporate a private REIT into portfolios to better capture the increase ininflation via rents and avoid the general market volatility due to liquidity of publicly traded markets.
Conclusion: The US economy is strong with all-time low unemployment and labor being scarce which in turn results inprices to increase. Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it are what I am monitoring for signals of change. This environment favors business ownership and infrastructure (despite short term bumps along the way) over the default safety of fixed income / bonds due to inflation risk.
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