经济和利率评论：
第三季度美国 GDP 增速放缓至 2.3%，考虑到 2021 年上半年超过 6% 的惊人增长，这是可以理解的。这六个月是自 1950 年代中期以来美国最快的增长率。过去的 12 个月年增长率约为 5%。有趣的是，这两个时期都处于“冷战”世界，因为恐惧已被转化成投资/消费刺激。随着更高的增长，更高的通货膨胀率和最近的读数证实了这一点。也就是说，总通胀率约为 6.7%，如果不包括食品和能源，则略低于 5%。这种增长和通胀始于 2021 年第一季度，随着制造业指数飙升至接近历史最高水平，对硬通货如土地争夺开始。此后制造业一直处于高位平稳，第四季度服务业指数飙升至接近历史高位，因为出现一种体验狂热。通过机场、娱乐场所和餐馆的个人观察来看，有些人利用他们的自由逃离因为疫情有限制的地区（主要蓝州，要求疫苗证明、口罩令等），来到无限制的红州，这些地方是我记忆以来最为拥挤和消费需求最旺盛的，最大的瓶颈似乎是找到愿意工作的人。
随着通胀数据高于预期，美联储已开始表明其最激进的刺激措施——债券购买计划——将逐渐减少。他们还表示，他们可能会在 2022 年加息 3 次。尽管有这一信号，但长期债券市场保持平稳，10 年期利率徘徊在 1.5% 左右。除了政府一直是债务的更大买家之外，利率保持低位的一个原因是劳动生产率迅速提高。我的论点是，自从婴儿潮一代以来，较小的家庭规模允许将资源（能源）更多地集中在少数孩子身上，这些孩子已经长大，发明了改变游戏规则的技术造福全人类（无线网络）。这些技术使人们能够事半功倍，并且随时随地都可以这样做（在家工作）。新冠疫情加速了这一进程，因为它迫使管理层更具前瞻性，并相信他们的员工可以在他们觉得舒服的地方完成工作。实际上，这些技术早在疫情之前就已经成熟，因此在整个过程中扩展和调整得很快。随着劳动力的这种变化和资产价格的高涨，婴儿潮一代加快了他们的退休速度，或者离开了劳动力去做更有效率的事情。这使得准备更充分的个人能够以更低的成本为团队做出贡献。（即劳动生产率的提高）。
随着自金融危机以来（2009-2020 年）通胀水平超过 2% 的变化，人们的心理正在适应这种环境，现在以两位数的年增长率（10%+）的价格上涨已经变得相当可接受，并且这种趋势还将继续。
在政治方面，自 2021 年 3 月的 疫情救济法案以来，美国已经逐渐回归了自我，只有辩论和谈话而没有太多的立法行动。由于参议院在 50 席上陷入僵局，而其中一名民主党人很容易被带到另一边，我预计在 2022 年中期选举结果之前不会出现太多的立法行动。我们可以预期在接下来的几个月里，随着战线的划定，政治广告的数量将会增加。
债券和被动企业所有权（股票）市场评论：
美国股票指数在四季度结束时上涨了 10.65%，以 26.89% 的回报率结束了高位。美联储对缩减货币宽松步伐的口径差异导致股票交易日出现震荡，尤其是对那些几乎没有利润的高增长故事股票中。在股指的板块内，主要指数的表面之下存在着强大的压力和波动。能源、金融和基础设施等较发达的行业复苏并跑赢指数。FAANMG（脸书、苹果、亚马逊、奈飞、微软、谷歌）股票的表现与指数一致，并经历了转型的一年， Facebook 在四季度更名为 Meta。
我将房地产归类为基础设施，四季度的指数回报率为 14.59%，2021 年为 38.73%。由于货币政策如此宽松，资本市场偏爱风险资产类别，同时不偏爱债券等避险资产类别。债券指数在第四季度下跌 0.1%，在 2021 年下跌 1.77%。考虑到通货膨胀因素，债券指数的实际损失为 7-12%。
结论：美国经济已从 COVID 衰退中完全复苏，我们现在正进入一个新的正常增长阶段，该阶段应该会持续几年，我将监测变化的信号。一路上会有短期的颠簸，但如果你保持信念，这种增长将与美国精神一样可持续。由于通货膨胀风险，这种环境有利于企业所有权而不是固定收益/债券的违约安全。
Economic and Interest Rate Commentary:
In Q3, US quarterly GDP slowed to 2.3% whichis understandable considering the breakneck growth of over 6% in the 1st halfof 2021. Those 6 months were the fastest US growth rate since the mid 1950’s.In the past 12 months growth has been about 5% annualized. Interestingly bothperiods were during a “cold” world, as fear has been weaponized to spurinvestment / consumption. With higher growth comes higher inflation and therecent readings bearing this out. To wit, total inflation is around 6.7%, andwhen excluding food and energy is just shy of 5.  This growth andinflation started in Q1 2021 with a land grab for hard goods with themanufacturing index shooting up near all-time high levels. Manufacturing hassince leveled off at a high level, in Q4 the services index shot up nearall-time level highs as there is now a frenzy for experiences. Anecdotally frompersonal observations of going through airports, amusements, and restaurants,there are people using their freedom to flee areas of the country that areshutting down. These areas are in as high demand as I can ever recall. The biggest bottleneck seems to be employment and finding good people willingto work.    
With inflation readings coming in higher thanexpected, the Fed has begun to indicate the tapering of their most aggressivestimulus measures which is the bond buying program. They have also indicatedthey could raise rates 3 times in 2022. Despite this signaling, the long termbond market has stayed flat with the 10 year rate hovering around 1.5%. One reasonfor the rates staying low other than the fact that the government has been abigger buyer of the debt is labor productivity has increased rapidly. My thesisis that since the baby boomer generation smaller family sizes have allowedgreater focus of resources (energy) on a smaller number of children who havegrown up to make game changing technologies that benefit all of mankind. Thesetechnologies have allowed people to do more with less, as well as do thiswherever and whenever. The Covid crisis sped this up as it forced management tobe more forward thinking and trust their workforces to do their jobs whereverthey felt comfortable. In reality many of the tools had been built long ago forthis environment before the Covid war so the adjustment process to scale itacross the workforce was quick. With this change in the workforce and highlevel in asset prices, the baby boomer generation has sped up their retirementor left the workforce to do more productive things. This has allowed betterprepared individuals to contribute to the team at a lower cost. (I.e. Laborproductivity)
With the change in the level of inflationabove the 2% experienced since the financial crisis (2009-2020), humanpsychology is adapting to this environment and now prices increasing at doubledigit annual rates (10%+) has become fairly acceptable, and maybe a trend thatwill continue.
On the political front, America has gottenback to itself with much more debate and talk, and not much legislative actionsince the March 2021 Covid relief bill. With the Senate being deadlocked at 50,and one of the Democrats so easy to be brought to the other side, I would notexpect much legislative action until after the 2022 midterm election results.We can expect over the next few months the ramp up of political ads as thebattle lines have been drawn recently.
Bond and Passive Business Ownership (Stock)Market Commentary:
The US stock index ended Q4 up 10.65% as it ended the year on ahigh note with a return of 26.89%. Jawboning by the Fed about the pace oftapering of monetary accommodation has caused some choppy trading days instocks, especially in higher growth story stocks that have little to noprofits. Within the sectors of the stock index there were strong pressures andmovements underneath the surface of the main index. The more developed sectorssuch as energy, finance and infrastructure had a renaissance and outperformedthe index. The FAANMG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google)stocks performed in line with index and had a transformational year as Facebookchanged their name to Meta in Q4 in response to forces too deep for this shortcommentary.
I categorize real estate as infrastructure and the index returnwas 14.59% in Q4 and 38.73% for 2021. With monetary policies being soaccommodative, the capital markets have favored risk on, and on the flip sidenot favored risk off assets classes like bonds. The bond index was down 0.1% inQ4 and was down 1.77% in 2021. When factoring in inflation the loss on the bondindex was 7-12% in real terms.
Conclusion: The US economy has fully recovered fromthe COVID recession, we are now entering a new normal phase of growth thatshould sustain for a few years and something I will monitor for signals ofchange. There will be short term bumps along the way but if you keep the faiththis growth will be as sustainable as the American spirit. This environmentfavors business ownership over the default safety of fixed income / bonds dueto inflation risk.
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