1
导读
感谢思维导图作者May Li
Summer,女,QE在职,梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康
 上次参考译文:
The Christmas-charts phenomenon illustrates why investors are re-evaluating musicians’ back catalogues.
圣诞榜单现象如此,难怪投资者正重新评估音乐家的老歌。
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Rebound or rebalance
反弹还是再平衡
英文部分选自经济学人20211108The world ahead版块
Rebound or rebalance
反弹还是再平衡
A world economy plagued by shortages faces a pivotal year, says Henry Curr
亨利·库尔:饱受短缺困扰,世界经济面临关键之年
WILL THE stagflationary forces acting on the world economy last? Throughout 2021, central banks and most economists have said that the factors causing inflation to rise and growth to slow would be temporary. Supply-chain bottlenecks would subside, energy prices would return to earth and the rich-world workers staying out of the labour force—for reasons nobody fully understands—would return to work. And yet as 2021 draws to a close financial markets, the public and even central bankers themselves are beginning to lose faith.
全球经济面临的滞胀是否还会持续?纵观2021年,各国央行和大部分经济学家曾表示,导致通胀上升和增长放缓的因素都将是暂时性的。供应链瓶颈会消退,能源价格将恢复,自主离职的富裕国家的工人(导致其失业的因素尚未完全明了)也将回归工作岗位。但是当2021年接近尾声之际,金融市场、公众、甚至连各家央行自己都开始失去信心。
The dilemma facing policymakers is acute. The textbook answer to inflation caused by supply disruptions is to ignore it and let it go away on its own. Why damage economies with higher interest rates, which will not unblock ports, conjure up new supplies of natural gas or bring the pandemic to an end? In 2011 inflation in Britain rose to 5.2% as a result of rising commodities prices, but the Bank of England kept interest rates low. In the euro area the European Central Bank raised rates, helping send its economy back into recession, and before long found itself with inflation well below its target. Like then, inflation in 2022 driven by high energy prices is likely to subside. (Inflation is the rate of change of prices, meaning that even if prices do not return to previous levels, merely not rising as quickly is enough.)
政策制定者们面临着艰难的困境。针对因供应中断导致的通货膨胀,教科书给出的答案是置之不理,直至它自行消失。为什么要用更高的利率破坏经济呢?更高的利率既无法解封港口、也变不出新的天然气供应、或结束疫情。2011年,由于大宗商品价格上涨,英国通胀率升至5.2%,但英格兰银行仍保持着低利率。而欧洲央行却就此提升了欧元区的利率,使得经济重回衰退,并很快发现通胀率远低于自己的目标。与2011年相似,2022年受高能源价格驱使产生的通胀也有可能减退。(通胀指价格变化的速率,意味着即使价格没有回到先前水平,上涨得没那么快也行。)
Yet the comparison with the early 2010s is inexact. The woes of global trade in 2021 have not just been caused by disrupted supply, such as covid-19 outbreaks shutting Vietnamese factories. There has also been excess demand. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with social distancing, led consumers to binge on goods, from games consoles to tennis shoes. In the summer of 2021 Americans’ spending on physical stuff was 7% above the pre-pandemic trend. In other countries, too, there is only a shortage of goods relative to unusually high demand for them. For the world economy to return to something like normal, consumers need to spend more of their plentiful cash on services, such as restaurant meals and travel.
然而,这种与21世纪10年代初的比较并不准确。2021年全球贸易的困境不仅只是供应的中断,如因新冠疫情爆发,越南工厂停工。还有超额需求。大规模财政政策和货币政策的刺激,加上保持社交距离的措施,导致消费者无节制地购买游戏机,网球鞋等产品。美国人在2021年夏天的实物商品支出比疫情前高出7%。别的国家也不例外,面对不同寻常的高需求,都出现了商品短缺情况。想让全球经济恢复正常水平,消费者需要把手中更多的现金花在诸如餐饮、旅游等服务上。
Unfortunately economies are plagued by shortages of workers needed for service industries to thrive. Wages in leisure and hospitality are soaring. Many economists hoped that workers would return as emergency support for labour markets, such as furlough schemes and emergency unemployment insurance, ended. So far there is surprisingly little sign of that happening. For inflation to be temporary, wage growth as well as price growth probably needs to fall. The alternatives are an unlikely surge in productivity, or lower profit margins, which for businesses such as restaurants are already thin.
但可惜的是,经济受劳动力短缺困扰;服务业要想繁荣,劳动力必不可少。休闲业和酒店业的工资飙升。许多经济学家希望,随着休假计划和紧急失业金等应急保障结束,工人们会回归岗位。到目前为止,令人惊讶的是,几乎没有迹象表明劳动力市场迎来了人员回归。若想通胀只是短暂性的,可能需要降低工资和物价的增长。备选方案还有几乎不可能的生产率大幅提升、或降低利润率,对于那些像餐馆一样的企业来说,利润已经很薄了。
Some monetary policymakers are beginning to fear the reverse: wage growth that continues to rise as workers come to expect higher inflation. The rich world has not seen a wage-price spiral since the 1970s, and doves argue that in economies without widespread unionisation, workers are unlikely to negotiate higher wages. But if rising inflation expectations do prove self-fulfilling, central banks’ job would suddenly get much harder. They would not be able to keep inflation on target without sacrificing jobs. Emerging markets are used to this painful trade-off between growth and inflation, but it has not bitten hard in the rich world for decades. In big rich countries, the Bank of England is the closest to tightening—purely to preserve the credibility of its inflation target, rather than because it is warranted by underlying economic conditions.
一些货币政策制定者开始担心相反的情况:即工人们预期通胀上升,工资增长幅度持续上升。自20世纪70年代以来,富裕国家还从未出现过工资价格螺旋,而鸽派认为,在没有广泛工会化的经济体中,工人们不太可能协商得来更高的工资。但如果不断上升的通胀预期确实能够自我实现,央行的工作将一下变得困难得多。在不牺牲就业的情况下,央行无法将通胀保持在目标水平。新兴市场已经习惯了在经济增长和通胀之间进行痛苦的权衡,但数十年来,这并未对富裕国家产生严重影响。在富裕大国中,英格兰银行是最接近紧缩的——但纯粹是为了保持其通胀目标的可靠性,而并非由于潜在经济条件所需。
注释:
1. Doves鸽派,形容主张采取柔性温和的态度及手段处理外交、军事等问题的人士、团体或势力以维护国家、民族利益,采用白鸽来代表的原因是在圣经的诺亚方舟故事中,白鸽象征和平。反义词为鹰派,形容主张采取强势外交手段或积极军事扩张的人士、团体或势力,或以强硬态度或手段维护国家、民族利益的个人、团体或势力。美联储委员所属的鹰派鸽派分别形容支持紧缩开支、严控通胀者和支持QE、借以刺激经济和就业市场者。
2. BiteV-I When an action or policy begins to bite, it begins to have a serious or harmful effect. 产生严重影响
例:As the sanctions begin to bite there will be more political difficulties ahead.
随着制裁真正开始起作用,今后将会有更多的政治困难。
3. WarrantV-T If something warrants a particular action, it makes the action seem necessary or appropriate for the circumstances. 使显得必要;使显得适当
例:The allegations are serious enough to warrant an investigation.
指控已严重得有必要进行一番调查。
4.工资-价格螺旋是工资提高引起价格上涨,价格上涨又引起工资提高的现象。工资提高和价格上涨形成了螺旋式的上升运动,即所谓的工资价格螺旋。
Central bankers in a tightening spot
处境艰难的央行官员们
It is easy to imagine monetary policymakers raising interest rates and coming to regret it. Though inflation will remain high in the early months of 2022, central bankers typically think it takes a year and a half for higher interest rates to have their full effect on the economy. The forces that previously kept global rates and inflation low—demographic change, inequality and rampant global demand for safe assets—may have reasserted themselves by then. Imminent fiscal retrenchment in many countries will help cool economies: Britain has announced large tax rises and President Joe Biden is struggling to get large spending bills through Congress.
不难想象,货币政策制定者们提高利率后会后悔。尽管在2022年头几个月,通胀率仍将保持在高位,但央行官员们普遍认为,更高的利率水平需要一年半的时间才会对经济产生全面影响。以前使全球利率和通胀保持在较低水平的影响因素——包括人口变化、不平等和全球对于安全资产的旺盛需求——到那时可能会再度发挥作用。许多国家即将采取的财政紧缩举措将有助于给经济降温:英国已宣布大幅增税,美国总统拜登正努力让国会通过巨额支出法案。
注释:
1. RampantADJ If you describe something bad, such as a crime or disease, as rampant, you mean that it is very common and is increasing in an uncontrolled way. 猖獗的;泛滥的
例:Inflation is rampant and industry in decline.
通货膨胀肆虐,工业生产下降。
2. ReassertV-T If something such as an idea or habit reasserts itself, it becomes noticeable again. (想法或习惯等)再次显现
例:His sense of humour was beginning to reassert itself.
他的幽默感又开始显现了。
3. ImminentADJ If you say that something is imminent, especially something unpleasant, you mean it is almost certain to happen very soon. (尤指不好的事情)即将发生的
例:There appeared no imminent danger.
眼前似乎没有危险。
4. RetrenchmentN-VAR Retrenchment means spending less money. (开支的)紧缩;削减 [正式]
例:Defence planners predict an extended period of retrenchment.
国防规划人员们预计,开支紧缩期会延长。
5. Spill overV to overflow or be forced out of an area, container, etc (从空间、容器中)溢出;(从空间、容器中)被迫使出来,形容影响波及
例:Dubai World's travails will spill over to Abu Dhabi's Banks and investors.
迪拜世界的剧痛将波及阿布扎比的银行和投资者。
Above all else, the pandemic is not over. The spread of the virus could yet disrupt economies once again if immunity wanes and new variants can evade vaccines. But with supply chains at their limits, the world cannot repeat the trick of maintaining economic growth using stimulus that shifts consumer spending towards goods. Instead central banks would have to choke off spending with higher rates to avoid excessive inflation while the supply-side of the economy adapts to patterns of spending and working that are vastly different from what prevailed in the 2010s. If normality does not return in 2022, the alternative is a painful economic adjustment.
最重要的是,疫情还未结束。一旦人们的免疫力下降,新型变异毒株攻破疫苗屏障,新冠病毒的传播就仍可能再次扰乱各国经济发展。但由于供应链已达极限,想要故技重施,通过刺激政策让消费者加大商品支出,以维持经济增长是行不通的。相反,央行应该加息抑制支出,避免过度通胀;与此同时,经济的供给侧要适应与本世纪10年代截然不同的消费和工作模式。如果2022年生活仍未恢复常态,那么只能进行艰难的经济调整了。
翻译组:
Alex,女,小研究员一枚,经济学人粉丝
Brittany,女,会计金融美本,行业分析师,爱经济学人
Tina C,女,金融咨询业民工,商业分析硕士,经济学人骨灰级粉丝
Cristina,女,There were sixpence all over the floor, but he looked up and saw the moon.
校对组:
Luc,男,在北京,喜欢睡觉
Hannah,女,爱读财经的金融小白 经济学人唯粉
Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝
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观点|评论|思考
本期感想
Intro,男,政府临时工,前理想主义者兼积极的悲观主义者
2022年展望之新冠疫情篇
动态清零有条件共存
毫无疑问,新冠疫情的发展态势依旧是2022年展望的核心。而新冠疫情的走势一定程度上受疫情防控政策和医学进步影响(因为不懂医学,没办法用一个更精确地词汇例如什么病毒病理学之类的词汇描述)。
概括的将疫情防控政策的两个理想的极端是。闭——可以很清楚的看,由于文化差异的原因,我国与一些东南亚及东亚国家的疫情防控政策具有一定的相似性即采用相关的策略,包容熔断、城市封闭等具有强行政手段的措施。这种手段对于早期,区域性的流行病的控制具有非常有效的。其有效性的代价也是明显的,由于这种休克式的行政手段,生活和生产活动均受到很大限制,甚至可能出现一些人道主义危机。
——一个词解释开的策略就是群体免疫。西方大多数国家受文化、动员能力和行政管理手段限制不能或不愿意接受策略。这种手段对经济、社会生活生产的影响是渐进性,也就是早期、区域性流行阶段还能保证各自安好,后期大流行阶段,生产和生活活动会像使用的策略的早期一样大受限制,而且影响会相对更绵长,相当于把危害性平滑了,但危害的时间会大大的延长。
所以静态的理想状态下,在面对大流行病时,如果相同的政治治理模式下和文化下,两种策略的选择总体伤害性可能差不多,但如果策略选择与其政治治理模式不符合,伤害可能加倍。但无论两种选择怎么选,解决大流行的基本方法还是要依靠医学的进步,也就是疫苗的研发和大规模接种。
其实进入2021年,就会发现了一个有趣的改变。采取的我们不再提出强行政管理的字眼了,取而代之的是动态清零精准防控常态化疫情防控。将的策略中逐渐融入了些,这正是考虑到平衡疫情防控和经济发展而采取了更合理的防控策略,这种平衡的防控策略的采用也是受益于检测力量、诊疗能力以及疫情防控能力的提升。采取的西方国家也逐渐开始使用了熔断、城市封闭等强行政管理的字眼。在中融入了,这是由于疫情失控导致的,不依赖疫苗的群体免疫骗局让美国和欧洲前前后后感受到了五次疫情浪潮,无论是西方国家的民众还是政府都不得不接受强行政管理这一防控策略。
2022年,在大面积疫苗接种的情况下,与病毒有条件共存成了未来一年全球差不多多数国家的选择,然而像南美、非洲以及亚洲某些治理能力很差的国家可能会时不时给我们一些惊吓。例如德尔塔病毒和奥密克戎病毒的变异,但不得不说,能给病毒变异提供的极端环境已经不多了,美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长、白宫首席医学顾问安东尼·福奇近日也表示奥密克戎的传染性很强但在危险性低于德尔塔病毒。从死亡率上看,自20215月世卫组织公布德尔塔病毒,死亡率提升了一下后,死亡率还在逐渐的下降。这也证实了病毒的性质,传染性更强、致死率更低。
PS: 最近有点小忙,计划中的2022年展望是包括疫情篇、中国宏观经济、主要发达国家经济观察(更多是多个报告的总结)和政治展望篇,有机会候补。
4
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