中国出手与伊朗签署25年的战略合作协议,是真正影响全球的大事!


为什么?看来原因有两个:

一、这说明美国在世界范围内说话不算数了
过去,美国在全球说一谁敢说二?谁能说二?美国不但有足够强大的军事实力,还有足够强大的经济实力,当美国说一的时候,他国想说二也没能力说出来。过去,只要美国制裁了谁,西方盟友就会积极跟进,或被动中止与相关国家合作,客观上美国在全球的确说一不二。别的不说,2018年5月特朗普宣布退出伊核协议,结果欧盟、印度等世界上绝大部分国家就不敢和伊朗做生意了。世界,就是这么残酷和现实。

但是,2021年不同了,中国和伊朗签署了25年的战略合作协议,不但打破了这一潜规则,也把美国推向了尴尬境地。
中国和伊朗签署的这份协议并非一般协议,因为这份协议将至少包括如下内容:
一是中国和伊朗的投资贸易将以人民币结算。这至少意味着两点:一方面,中国可以直接拿人民币购买伊朗石油、天然气等资源;另一方面,中国可以直接用人民币在伊朗进行投资。
仅仅这两点,就意味着,中国购买伊朗能源支付给伊朗的人民币和中国企业投资到伊朗的人民币,大部分都将直接变成对中国商品和服务的购买需求,剩下的人民币伊朗将可以储存在中国的金融机构或购买中国的债券。如此意味着,伊朗经济发展将与中国建立紧密对接,不但伊朗获得了非常好的发展机会,美国和美元也就被排除在中国和伊朗的经济循环之外了。
二是中国将从伊朗购买大量的石油。根据俄罗斯媒体的报道,中国从伊朗购买的石油现在已经达到了100万桶每天,这一数据还在进一步提升之中。在特朗普政府退出伊核协议前,伊朗在安理会解除制裁后的石油出口一度达到400万桶每天,但美国退出伊核协议让欧盟等国家不敢再进口伊朗石油,伊朗石油出口一度暴跌至每天只有60到80万桶。现在,中国一个国家就进口伊朗石油100万桶以上,这无疑是给伊朗经济打了一针强心剂。
三是中国将向伊朗进行大规模的基础设施和工业制造的投资。这个很简单,伊朗是一个国土面积达164.5万平方公里、人口接近8200万的国家。这么大一个国家,基础设施建设需求、劳动力资源、自然资源都是非常丰富的,这对中国来说无疑是非常好的工业输出地。据媒体报道,这是一份包含了能源、电力、交通、金融、通讯、农业甚至是城市建设等项目在内的一揽子协议。
四是伊朗可能就格什姆岛与中国展开深入合作。格什姆岛在波斯湾入口处,面积非常大,约有1336平方公里。这个面积比香港还大,接近两个新加坡。有报道称,中伊两国打算把这里建设成一个自由贸易区、智慧城市。试想,如果有这么大一个城市给中国提供投资建设空间,那将是多么大的一个工程,利益空间将有多大不言而喻。
五是军事合作,联合国安理会对伊朗的武器禁运在2020年10月18日已经自动结束了。如此,中国和伊朗必然会有比较深度的军事合作,其中就包括北斗导航在伊朗的军用和民用合作等。有了北斗,伊朗的导弹就更加精准了。
中国和伊朗做这样的合作,根本不考虑美国是否制裁,也不考虑美国的感受,这当然说明美国已经单边说了不算了。而且,这种不算不是口头上的不算,而是实质上美国没有能力阻挡中国与伊朗的合作。伊朗有了这个底气,美国人已经不能把伊朗怎么样了。
二、中国给全世界很多国家提供了新的“出路”
美国联手西方制裁俄罗斯的时候,中国用30年的能源合作协议支持了俄罗斯,使得俄罗斯面对西方最严厉的制裁没有崩溃。如果说中国支持俄罗斯还有国家战略抱团考虑的话,那么和伊朗展开这样的合作,就是完全不再顾及美国感受了。
中国不再顾及美国的感受,对世界上其他国家来说,就是多了一个出路。换句话说,哪怕美国制裁,只要中国力挺,只要与中国合作的路不断,就依然可以得到很好的发展。这个“出路”的意义是重大的,意味着全世界很多国家不仅仅能看到中国带来的机遇,也会实实在在感受到中国发展给他们带来的安全。
这一变化,将会直接影响很多国家对中美两国的看法。

所以,当中国把这事给办了之后,中国在全球的地位会得到大幅提升。当然,美国也是极其恼火的,因为中国给伊朗的这份协议,不但一下子让伊朗经济稳定了,也让美国的制裁失去了效力,这实际上相当于中国把美国在全球的一些特权给没收了。
美国是一个霸权国家,看到这种情况岂能不暴怒?

美国对中国恼火到什么程度?
据媒体报道,白宫的一名高级官员私下向媒体透露,白宫将警告中国停止购买伊朗石油。不过,对于美国的所谓警告中国已经不在乎了。原因很简单,特朗普政府对中国的贸易战证明,美国综合实力不比中国强;美国对中国发起科技战证明,白宫已黔驴技穷。试问,拜登政府在这种情况下还想敲诈中国,中国当然会非常强硬,也必然会给美国一个下马威让大家都看看。在这样的背景下,中国当然不可能把美国的警告当回事。其实说白了,是美国自己把路走绝了,中美已经摊牌了,中国还怎么可能为了中美关系而配合美国制裁伊朗呢?中美关系已经质变,双方是较劲状态,中国与伊朗的合作是较劲的一个必然反应,也是中美博弈的一部分。
中国对伊朗的支持,直接让伊朗有了反击美国的底气。之前,由于中国伊朗还没有签署协议,伊朗还不断要求拜登政府尽快重返伊核协议。结果呢?大家都看到了,拜登政府完全不接招。美国重返伊核协议不积极,中国伊朗签署25年的战略合作协议,现在美国再想重返伊核协议,已变成伊朗不接招了。
据路透社4月2日报道,伊朗外交部网站当天称,伊朗拒绝与美国在维也纳举行任何会晤。然而,与此同时,伊朗却将于下周在维也纳与2015年伊核协议的其他参加方举行会议。这也就是说,伊朗直接把美国踢出了伊核问题的谈判桌,不带美国玩了。
为啥不带美国玩了?
最根本的原因就是,与中国合作后有了底气。与中国展开深度合作后,美国是否重返伊核协议对伊朗来说已经不重要了。事实上,现在也的确变成了美国求着伊朗,就在伊朗外交部宣布拒绝与美国会晤前,美方曾放风称自己将参加维也纳会议,还宣称会议的据地是讨论美国重返伊核协议。现在可好,伊朗直接宣布美国“出局”,你想怎么制裁就怎么制裁,你想干啥就干啥,伊朗根本不在乎,只和其他五个国家谈。
对美国来说,这事不但尴尬了,还是遇到真麻烦了!
事实上,之前在朝鲜半岛问题上,正是由于朝韩关系突然改善,这让美国非常措手不及,后来是特朗普政府紧急搞了“金特会”,之后才逐渐稳了下来,美国则并重新坐稳了在半岛局势中的地位。然而,这一次,伊朗直接将美国踢出了局,这会让美国显得非常尴尬。
对美国来说,如果任由伊朗把美国从伊核问题上踢出去,这对美国全球的国家信誉将是一次重创,因为这意味着解决全球最重要的问题上没有了美国声音,那对美国将是致命的。然而,要想重新让美国在伊核问题上拥有话语权,美国只有两个选择:
一是军事打击伊朗,如此撕破脸美国不敢,因为一旦美国陷入伊朗的战争泥潭,美国全球霸权将会在短时间内崩塌。
二是向伊朗做出重大让步。如何让步?恐怕只有无条件解除对伊朗的制裁了。然而,如果美国无条件解除对伊朗的制裁,那美国的面子在哪里?面子没有了,也就要开始丢里子了。
所以,现在摆在美国面前的真的是太棘手的问题了!

然而,美国的麻烦还不止于此,因为中国现在放开了与伊朗展开合作,这意味着中国将会获得大量伊朗的廉价石油,如果一桶便宜5美元,每天100万通可就是500万美元,每年就是一二十亿美元的好处。这还不包括伊朗对中国商品、服务的采购,以及中国对伊朗的投资等相关利益。

面对这种情况,包括欧盟在内的很多国家难道不眼馋吗?
譬如欧盟,明明可以买到便宜石油,难道他不想买吗?明明伊朗有很多投资机会,难道他不想投吗?明明伊朗有很多市场需求,难道欧盟不想卖产品吗?另外还有印度等国,都在眼巴巴看着呢!
在这种情况下,中国与伊朗的合作突破的背景下,如果这些国家不跟进,那么就变成了中国吃“独食”,这对欧盟、印度等国来说可就太难受了。所以,可以预见,相关国家必然“怦然心动”。尤其是印度,距离伊朗一步之遥,看着便宜石油自己不买让中国买,难道不眼红?只要再有一个国家跟进,很多国家都会跟进。如果很多国家都跟进,美国又能怎样?
当然,我们不能说美国就这么一定出局了,因为美国还是有路可以走的,那就是不要再讲条件重返伊核协议,但这么以来相当于美国又输一局。面对此局,美国不认输又怎么办呢?
………
克莱因瓶是一个不可定向的二维紧流形,而球面或轮胎面是可 克莱因瓶 克莱因瓶 定向的二维紧流形。如果观察克莱因瓶,有一点似乎令人困惑--克莱因瓶的瓶颈和瓶身是相交的,换句话近代科学兴起的先驱者、是捍卫科学真理并为此献身的殉道士。有另一种说法认为,近代以来关于罗马梵蒂冈的地心说和哥白尼的日心说的斗争是被严重夸大的。布鲁诺1600年遭受火刑的原因,并非因知行星围绕太阳作圆周运动。然而,人们是否能接受哥白尼提出的新的宇宙模式呢?全世界的人——尤其是权力极大的天主教会是否相信太阳是宇宙中心这一说法呢?由于害怕教会的惩罚,哥白尼在世时不敢公开他的发现。1543年,这一发现才公诸天下。即使在那个时候,哥白尼的发现还不断受到教会高无上的真理,凡是违背圣经的学说,Eighteen months passed. The Chief was in Quebec with Hannah and Abbie awaiting the arrival of Rug, who had been sent by his father to the Mother Land to dispose of two cargoes of timber. It was an unusually cold evening in June. Snow had been falling all day. The neighboring hills were covered with large feathery crystals, which, however, soon melted as the sun appeared for a moment before sinking behind the gray walls of the Castle St. Louis. Just as the evening gun was fired, news had reached the union Hotel that a vessel had been sighted near the Island of Orleans. It was ascertained that it w against a sea voyage from the time they left Liverpool. "Nor is this all," he said; "I have something better still on board for the new settlement, namely, twenty-five English families, who are going to take up land in the township and pay for it in work." "And who nearly turned mutineers," added the captain, slapping him on the shoulder, "did they not, Wright?" "How was that?" asked the Chief. "When we boarded the vessel at Liverpool," replied Rug, "some were bright and cheerful, but most of them were in tears, which showed that they did not leave the Old Land without a struggle. We soon weighed anchor and were under sail with a fair wind, but it came round to the east and blew fresher, so that we were forced to come to anchor not far from the place we left. The ship, as you may see, was fitted up for the timber trade, and has only a small cabin or quarter-deck. On each side are ranged two tiers of berths for passengers providing their own bedding. Along the open space in the middle we placed two rows of large chests which were used sometimes as tables, sometimes as seats—all of which I shall show you presently. There was much noise and confusion before all found berths; crying children, swearing sailors, scolding women, who had not been able to secure the beds they wanted, produced a chorus of a very melancholy nature. The disagreeableness of it was heightened by the darkness of the night and the rolling and a new and better country. "As we neared the banks of Newfoundland a most extraordinary phenomenon was produced by the dashing of the salt water against the bow of the ship in the evening. The water seemed on fire and produced a very fine effect. The next day a mass of ice appeared about two hundred yards distant. It was almost half a mile in length, and was moving south-east. Soon after we found the channel between Cape Breton and Cape Ray, and got into the ice. The captain sent eight men to the bow with fenders. One piece knocked splinters off the bow and threw us all down. About five days later we reached the Island of Anticosti, but I was too ill to see it. We saw porpoises in shoals plunging about the ship, while the sailors tried to harpoon them beneath the bow. About two hundred and eighty miles below Quebec the pilot came on board. His number was painted in large characters on his sail as well as on his boat. He had a cask of fresh water and some maple sugar, which he sold at an extortionate price to the passengers. "Near Bic Island we saw whales spouting water at a great height, and a habitant came out in a boat with a large basket of eggs, which he disposed of at a shilling per dozen, and so we continued on until the domes and towers of Quebec came in sight and I began to realize the inexpressible joy of being at home once more."* * Diary of Rev. Robert Bell and letters of R. Wright. Rug was a young man of great executive ability, a young man whose word could be relied upon with absolute certainty, a young man who proved himself the very soul of honor in all his business transactions.都被斥为“异端邪说”,凡是反对神权统治的人,都被处以火刑。新兴的资产阶级为自己的生存和发展,掀起了一场反对封建制度和教会迷信思想的斗争,出现了人文主义的思潮。他们使用的战斗武器,就是未被神学染污的古希腊的哲学、科学和文艺。这就是震撼欧洲的文艺复兴运动。文艺复兴首先发生于意大利,很快就扩大到波兰及欧洲其他国家。与此同时,商业的活跃也促进了对外贸易的发展。在“黄金”这个符咒的驱使下,许多欧洲冒险者远航非洲、印度及整个远东地区。远洋航行需要丰富的天文和地理知识,从实际中积累起来的观测资料,使人们感到当时流行的“地静天动”的宇宙 CHAPTER IV. AN INDIAN SUITOR. 1803. Machecawa and his friend O'Jawescawa became frequent visitors at the Wigwam. They would come in the morning, uninvited, and sit silently all day long before the open fire and observe all that was going on. The spinning-wheel and hand-loom were objects of unceasing interest to them, and though it proved a great distraction to the children in their studies, and to the girls in the performance of their domestic duties, to have them there, they were always treated not only with respect but with consideration and kindness. One morning Machecawa stood gazing intently into the fire. His face wore an expression of perplexity. At length he turned to the White Chief, who was explaining a mathematical problem to one of his boys, and said: "Big Injun, he want to speak his thoughts from books. He want to know white man's Manitou." "May I teach him, father? Just for an hour every day?" said Chrissy, a tall, fair, thoughtful girl of seventyour neck, Machecawa?" said Bearie, the second son, a short, well knit, sturdy-looking youth of eighteen, whose every expression reflected a bright, happy, generous disposition. "She am my Manitou," replied the Indian. &q39;you no eat no teeng seex days.' By em by I am dream some teeng, me, dat some teeng she am my manitou. She help me kill beeg bear; she mak dem Iroquois dogs run like one wild moose. My fadder she am pleese; she make my manitou on my arm—see!" he said, rolling up his sleeve. On his shoulder was the rude outline of a fish, which had been tatooed with sharp bones and with the juice of berries rubbed in. "But what is in the little bag?" asked Bearie. "Will you let me see it?" After a good deal of reluctance he gave in at last, and two curious boys untied the precious parcel, while the others, equally curious, looked over his shoulders at a few old broken fish bones which were all the little bag contained. "Well, old man," said Bearie, slowly replacing the sacred relics, "we put our faith in something better than that. The white man trusts the Great Spirit in heaven to care for him and to take him to heaven when he dies." "Any bear in hebben?" asked the Indian. "No," said Bearie, "only good people." "Dat hebben she am no good for big Injun," said Machecawa, sadly. "De happy hunting ground she am full of moose, buffalo, bear, beaver. She am far, far away at de end of land, where de sun she sleep—two, tree moons away. One beeg dog she am cross, an' she bark at dead Injun, but he go on, an' on, an' on, an' den he am glad." It began to dawn upon the vigilant mother at length that it was not so much the wonders of civilization nor the desire to "speak his thoughts from books" that led Machecawa day after day to the Wigwam, as an ever-increasing interest in her fun-loving daughter, Abbie, who was a year younger than Chrissy, and who seemed unconscious of the fact that the eyes of the red chief were ever upon her.学说值得怀疑,这就要求人们进一步去探索宇宙的秘密,从而推进了天文学和地理学的发展。1492年,意大利著名的航海家哥伦布发现新大陆,麦哲伦和他的同伴绕地球一周,证明地球是圆形的,使人们开始真正认识地球。[4] 对他国的影响 在教会严密控制下的中世纪,也发生过轰轰烈烈的宗教革命。因为天主教的很多教义不符合圣经的教诲,而加入了太多教皇的个人意志以及各类神学家的自身成果,所以很多信徒开始质疑天主教的教义和组织,发起回归圣经的行动来。捷克的爱国主义者、布拉格大学校长扬·胡斯(1369~1415年)在君士坦丁堡的宗教会议上公开谴责德意志封建主与天主教会对捷克的压迫和剥削。他虽然被反动教会处以火刑,但他的革命活动在社会上引起了强烈的反应。捷克农民在胡斯党人的旗帜下举行起义,这次运动也波及波兰。1517年,在德国,马丁·路德(1483~1546年)反对教会贩卖赎罪符,与罗马教皇公开决裂。1521年,路德又在沃尔姆国会上揭露罗马教廷的罪恶,并提出建立基督教新教的主张。新教的教义得到许多国家的支持,波兰也深受影响。
克莱因瓶是
而且,更加现实的问题是,哪怕美国投降认输重返伊核协议,那又有什么样的话语权呢?显然,说话没那么硬气了!因为,伊朗不再信任美国。
美国对伊朗的经济封锁,就要这么土崩瓦解了?答案是肯定的,而这仅仅只是源于中国往前迈了一步而已!中美实力对比,跃然纸上!
来源:占豪
继续阅读
阅读原文