WSJ：严峻疫情下的2020年，将如何重塑“黑色星期五”购物狂欢节？（附视频&解说稿）

一年一度的“黑色星期五”购物季如约而至，但在跳动上涨的确诊数字和此起彼伏的“封锁令”下，今年的“黑五”可能也火不到哪去儿。疫情冲击下，民众储蓄意识上升、缩减开支，再加上线下消费的风险，还有欧洲对亚马逊和“黑五”的抵制，种种原因似乎已经奠定了这个“黑五”的悲观基调。不过，在确切数字出来之前，“黑五”的表现还不好下定论，毕竟压抑了许久的出行和消费冲动或许会带来一丝希望。

11月27日，“黑色星期五”正式到来，这是大西洋两岸共同的购物狂欢季，作为岁末购物假期的开端，“黑五”的销售状况直接决定了零售商家四季度的业绩。

而今年，开局明显有些不利，特别是对于线下零售商而言。虽然线上狂欢从11月20日就拉开了帷幕，但在线下，或许就像彭博社在报道中所说，“世界上最著名的商业街正准备迎接一场以前从未经历过的假日消费季”。一起来听听WSJ的解说吧。

- [Narrator] For years, the cornerstone of the holiday shopping season has been Black Friday.

- [Reporter] In Buffalo, New York, shoppers stampeded at Target.

- And the crowds just keep getting bigger and bigger. This place is packed with people and it has been since five o'clock.

- Not only is it a time of sales, but it helps people psychologically, helps those shoppers think, "Oh yeah, Christmas is coming, Hanukkah is coming. I'm gonna be with my family. Let me start buying things."

- [Narrator] Waking up at the crack of dawn to rush into stores became somewhat of a holiday tradition for many families.

- These are deadly discounts!

- [Narrator] But this year is shaping up to look different.

- What the pandemic has done is actually accelerate the trends that we'd seen. And that is a move to contactless, a move to convenience, really a move toward digital instead of traditional shopping experience. So I think that's gonna be a lasting change that we see as a result.

- [Narrator] The shopping tradition dates back to the 1920s and 30s when families would start buying holiday gifts the day after Thanksgiving. Traditionally, this was the first day that retailers would start advertising for Christmas. But by the 2000s, companies were announcing Black Friday door buster deals earlier and earlier. (crowd screams)

- [Reporter] Target stores opened at five this morning and there were plenty of excited shoppers on hand.

- So there were these few horrific moments where people were dying or getting seriously injured because of people rushing into a building.

- [Narrator] Some department stores were opening at midnight and within a few years, the deals were creeping into Thanksgiving day. By the 2010s, the one day event had ballooned to cover the full holiday weekend. But around this time, retailers were also launching more online sales on the Monday after Thanksgiving. This was known as Cyber Monday and it was growing fast. In 2016, Cyber Monday sales hit a new record of nearly three and a half billion dollars. Digital became much more important to the consumer. So what we found was Cyber Monday actually started to take on a heightened importance.

- [Narrator] For many companies, thanksgiving weekend, starting with Black Friday and stretching into Cyber Monday is one of the most lucrative times of the year. But recently appetite for the chaos of Black Friday has started to fade. And then in 2020, the retail industry and how people shopped changed.

- Retailers across the country announcing closures and shortening their store hours in the hopes of limiting the outbreak.

- Add in the coronavirus pandemic and there are retailers that may not survive.

- We've seen massive amounts of retail closings, accelerated bankruptcies this year. That means there's probably gonna be fewer stores and there might be more of a consolidation in where people go to some of these big box stores that have been open and operating the whole time.

- [Narrator] During lock downs in March and April, spending slid off a cliff, with a record drop in retail sales as people were forced to stay home due to the coronavirus pandemic. Between April and October, around five thousand US stores went out of business. But even the retailers that had weathered the pandemic are changing the way they operate.

- This year, retailers for the first time in modern memory, are saying we're not gonna be open on Thanksgiving. Black Friday, we'll be open the day afterwards, but on Thanksgiving, deals are online.

- [Narrator] When stores open, consumers can expect limited hours and capacity, curbside pickups, and a much calmer atmosphere than years past.

- When folks go in a store, they're wearing a mask, they're being counted, and stores are being cleaned all the time.

- [Narrator] But perhaps the biggest change of them all, the shift to online shopping. A recent survey found that 70% of consumers plan to shop online more than normal to avoid crowds and exposure to the coronavirus. But this doesn't mean that brick and mortar stores will disappear entirely.

- We mostly still shop in stores, even now. Even in a pandemic. I know folks have been talking for years about the fact that stores would just slowly disappear. Shopping will change, how we discover products will change.

- [Narrator] And how these products get delivered will change too. As a result of the shift to online shopping, eCommerce stores are facing major delivery logistics and shopping hurdles this year. During the beginning of the pandemic, consumers were faced with month

-long delays as ports closed and supply chains broke down. Now the question is whether shipping companies can handle the mass influx of online orders that are expected over the next two months.

- A big reason that retailers are pushing people to shop online early is to spread out sales and give a little breathing room to the eCommerce supply chains.

- [Narrator] But right now, the numbers don't look too promising. The shipping industry is expected to be more than four million packages over capacity during the peak of the holiday season this year.

- It's gonna be really hard to order something two days before Christmas and have it arrive. That literally might not be an option even if you're willing to pay 50 bucks for shipping. Because there won't be capacity to get it to you. Which could push people to stores.

- [Narrator] But at the same time, many have lost their jobs due to the pandemic this year and may not have the ability to buy gifts.

- We have around 20 million people on unemployment. There was a little bit of a false sense of security that came because we got big stimulus checks in the spring. There was additional unemployment that people were getting until the end of July. A lot of that is gone or up in the air and hasn't really been resolved. So, retailers are definitely ready for lots of consumers not to feel like buying at all or buying a lot less. And even for folks who have jobs, I think my sense is talking to retailers and consultants, those folks are saving a lot more, which points to a little bit of caution.

- [Narrator] This means that certain retailers that cater to pandemic living, like groceries and home improvement, could continue to see profits while those that would traditionally see big sales around Black Friday, such as clothing and toys, could see bigger losses. The past year has upended the retail industry and shaken up what is traditionally the biggest sales period of the year, but most notably, 2020 has solidified the trend towards online shopping as a permanent part of the retail industries future.