A U.S.-China detente under Biden? Beijing isn’t betting on it.
施家曦（Gerry Shih）、窦伊文（Eva Dou）
2020年11月8日，《华盛顿邮报》刊文，采访了兔主席对中美关系的看法，本文由一枚兔粉翻译如下：
编者按：近期，美国大选成为全球关注的焦点，兔主席接受西方主流媒体的采访，尝试从非官方角度解释中国人对美国的认知及中美关系走向。后续还会就此撰写相关文章。
本周日，香港电视媒体报道了关于当选总统乔·拜登的消息。这个国际金融中心的人权问题加剧了中美之间的紧张关系。
台北，台湾——随着乔·拜登的当选，美国对盟国、敌对国家以及贸易和气候变化等问题的态度将会发生显著变化，世界各地政府都在紧张准备迎接这一彻底转变。
而中国似乎并不在此列。
本周日，中国政府并未立即对美国大选结果做出评论，但是许多中国分析人士认为，此前四年以及与特朗普政府的艰苦对决已经深刻揭示，无论谁入主白宫，这世界两大强国已经不可避免地成为竞争对手。尽管拜登就职以后，或许会在某些方面缓和与北京的关系，但是许多中国人对后特朗普时代的世界采取了宿命论的观点：美中之间的紧张关系很可能再持续4年，如果不是一代人的话。
部分悲观情绪源于中国人的预期，即拜登可能通过动员美国盟友、批评中国人权记录，比特朗普更有效地向北京施压——这是拜登及其顾问们在其竞选活动中标榜的一项战略。但是中国的分析人士认为，更为重大的挑战在于，中国稳步提升的国力尤其是技术实力已经使美国两党都愈加担忧。
复旦大学美国研究中心主任沈丁立认为，“在香港和新疆的人权问题上，中美之间会有更多的对立。”中国相信，在这些领域，拜登将会采取更强硬的立场，而特朗普的外交政策并未十分强调维护人权和自由价值观。
沈丁立以及其他分析家认为，中国可以抓住机会迅速拜登释放友好信号。沈丁立说，中国乐于在可能的领域加强与美方的合作，例如共同对抗新冠疫情、致力于使美国重返气候协定、敦促美方与伊朗重新达成核协议等。
“总体上说，拜登将尽力去做特朗普没有做到的事情，这就是打压中国。随着中美之间的差距逐步缩小，民主党或共和党领袖均无法接受美国的领导地位被中国取而代之，”沈丁立说，“未来四年，美国对中国的打压将会更甚。”
中国外交部一直避免对任何一位候选人表示支持，本周日下午也没有对拜登的胜选进行评论。
但是随着民主党在最近几天的计票中领先，一位高级官员透露，中国急于翻开中美关系新的一页。中国外交部副部长乐玉成在评论一些官方媒体所谓的“希望走出特朗普时期的敌意”时说，下一届美国政府应在分歧问题上与北京协商折中，并尽可能进行合作。
牛弹琴，一个与新华社有联系，但又不代表政府立场的博客，本周日提到，拜登认为俄罗斯是一个“威胁”，而中国只是一个“竞争对手”。“我们不能抱有幻想，”这位未具名作家说。“我希望我们能够回到相对理性的轨道上，但有一点是肯定的：情况已经发生了变化。这个世界再也不是以前的世界。”
技术战和贸易战
在特朗普的任期中，他通过对中国重点出口产业加征关税、对华为及其他公司制的市场主体实施半导体等尖端技术禁售令，暴露了中国的弱点。因而，中国国家主席习近平一再敦促中国弥补技术短板、消除经济波动，更多地关注做好自己的事，而不是关注美国对华政策的变化。
最近几个月中，中国出台了一系列具有深远影响的政策，反映出中国正在准备在未来的竞争中，与美国等竞争对手展开较量。中国执政党共产党推出了发展规划纲要，在计算机芯片等先进领域实现“自给自足”，减少出口依赖。中国专家表示，一些政策动机由来已久：中国政府长期以来一直试图全面改革经济，使其更加依赖国内消费。
但不可否认，特朗普的攻击帮助中国塑造了改革的蓝图。
中国商务部研究员梅新育说，“美中关系的变化使这些政策变得迫切。”他表示，他对拜登取消特朗普的关税政策并没有抱有“过高期望”，并认为中国企业应该做好准备在“高关税环境”预期中谋求生存发展。
拜登及其顾问们表示，特朗普的许多对华政策，包括关税，都是无效的，应该对其进行重新审视。拜登还指责中国窃取知识产权，并承诺对美国工人和技术进行投资，以提高其对华竞争力，但目前尚不清楚他是否会采用特朗普制裁中国科技企业的政策工具。
一些中国人被普遍的悲观情绪所困扰。任意，北京独立作家，曾在哈佛大学接受教育，表示中国学者、官员和普通民众越来越倾向于认为中美两国注定会发生冲突。
任意的微信公众号是中国最受欢迎的政治评论专栏之一，他说，他试图向读者说明，一个民主的政府更倾向于关注国内问题，且大多数美国人并不关心中国。但是，他说，“中国的主流民意中对美国的幻想已经破灭，是贸易战最初引发了这种幻想的破灭。而特朗普对华为、抖音的制裁、利用美国的力量对付中国、对香港反修例运动的争议更加剧了幻灭的进程。”
“他知道红线”
如果说北京方面还有乐观的空间，那就是拜登的可预期性相对较强。中国分析人士预计，他将在外交和谈判中恪守准则。尽管拜登在二月的一次辩论中做出不当描述，但他也大谈自己在外交政策方面的丰富经验，以及他与中国领导人会晤的经历，在2013年北京会晤期间，中国国家主席习近平称拜登为“我的老朋友”。
苏州大学教授、前外交部官员高志凯表示，他相信北京期待的不是特朗普。他说：“特朗普是个很不得体的人，而中国将乐于和一位体面正派的总统打交道。”
信强，复旦大学教授，美国和台湾问题专家。他说，双边关系的某些方面，比如中国与美国的技术竞争，已经“永远地改变了”。但他预测，在台湾这样的敏感问题上，中美双边关系会恢复正常。他说，中国认为台湾是属于中国的领土，虽然拜登很可能会支持台湾的民主制度，但他会避免可能引发军事冲突的危险行为。
近几个月来，特朗普政府向台出售先进武器装备，并派遣高级官员访问台湾。中国对特朗普政府与台湾关系升温十分不满，派遣战斗机进入台湾空域，并提出战争警告。
“拜登会有所克制，不会像特朗普总统那样激进，”信强说，“拜登曾在参议院外交事务委员会任职，拥有丰富的专业知识。他知道红线，知道中国大陆的底线。”
但是信强和其他专家也承认对未来的担忧。他说，美国皮尤研究中心今年的民意调查显示，美国对中国的看法降至历史最低水平，而中国人也已经意识到，随着年轻一代美国政客的崛起，“对中国的抨击可能会变得更为激烈”，而这些人，有可能是2024年美国总统候选人。
“我认为有相当多的美国势力支持压制中国的崛起，”中国商务部研究员梅新育在对北京的态度进行总结时说，“我们愿意改善与美国的关系，但决不能忽视这些势力的存在。”
谈到中美关系，梅新育说：“做最坏的打算，争取最好的结果。”
窦伊文首尔报道。
《华盛顿邮报》原文如下：
《A U.S.-China detente under Biden? Beijing isn’t betting on it》
A news report showing President-elect Joe Biden is seen on a TV screen in Hong Kong on Sunday. The erosion of human rights in the financial center has fueled tension between Washington and Beijing. (Tyrone Siu/Reuters)
ByGerry Shih andEva Dou
November 8, 2020 at 7:00 p.m. GMT+8
TAIPEI, Taiwan — With President-elect Joe Biden's triumph, governments around the world around are bracing for a potentially dramatic reversal in the U.S. approach toward allies, foes, and issues from trade to climate change.
In China? Not so much.
The Chinese government held off from immediately commenting on the election result on Sunday, but many Chinese analysts say that four years and one bruising showdown with the Trump administration have left a profound impression that the world’s two leading powers have ineluctably become rivals, no matter who occupies the Oval Office. While Biden could ease off Beijing in certain respects after Inauguration Day, many Chinese have adopted a fatalistic view of the post-Trump world: U.S.-China relations are likely to be fraught for four more years, if not a generation.
Part of the pessimism stems from Chinese expectations that Biden could pressure Beijing more effectively than President Trump by galvanizing U.S. allies and criticizing its human rights record — a strategy Biden and his advisers have touted on the campaign trail. But a larger challenge, Chinese analysts say, is a growing, bipartisan alarm in Washington about China’s rising strength, particularly in technology.
[China is awash with schadenfreude over U.S. election tumult]
“There will actually be more tension over human rights, Hong Kong, Xinjiang,” said Shen Dingli, director of American Studies at Fudan University, listing areas where China expects Biden to adopt a tougher line than Trump, who did not emphasize upholding human rights or liberal values as part of his foreign policy.
Shen and other analysts said China could seize the opportunity to quickly offer friendly gestures to Biden. Beijing would be happy to work on areas of potential collaboration, such as countering the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the United States back into a climate accord or patching up a nuclear agreement with Iran, Shen said.
Customers pose for a souvenir photo with Joe Biden's photos on display in the background at a restaurant he visited in 2011 as U.S. vice president, in Beijing on Sunday. (Andy Wong/AP)
“But overall, Biden will try to do what Trump couldn’t — suppress China — because the distance between China and the U.S. is drawing closer every year and no leader, Democratic or Republican, will ever accept China overtaking America,” he said. “Pressure will be higher still come 2024.”
China’s Foreign Ministry, which has avoided expressing favor for either candidate, did not comment on Biden’s victory as of Sunday afternoon in Beijing.
[China is building vast new detention centers for Muslims in Xinjiang]
But as the Democrat led the vote count in recent days, a senior ministry official hinted that China was eager to turn a new page. The next U.S. administration should “meet halfway” with Beijing on matters of disagreement and collaborate whenever possible, vice foreign minister Le Yucheng said in remarks that some state media outlets framed as a desire to move past the bitterness of the Trump years.
“Bull Piano,” a blog on WeChat that is associated with the official Xinhua News Agency but does not represent government positions, noted Sunday that Biden has called Russia a “threat” but China a “competitor.”
“We must not have illusions,” the unnamed writer said. “I hope we can return to a relatively rational track, but one thing is certain: things will never be the same again. This world is not the world of before.”
Clashes over tech, trade
(The Chinese tech giant has come under pressure from U.S. sanctions.)
During his term, Trump exposed China’s vulnerabilities by erecting tariffs on China’s key export industry and denying sales of cutting-edge technology such as semiconductors to Huawei and other corporate players. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping repeatedly urged his country to patch up its vulnerabilities, shockproof the economy, and worry less about fluctuations in U.S. policies toward China and focus more on “doing our own things well.”
In recent months, a slew of far-reaching policies has reflected China’s preparations for future flare-ups with competitors like the United States. The ruling Communist Party rolled out development plans to become “self-sufficient” in advanced fields like computer chips and to rely less on selling products to other countries. Some of the policy motivations were long-standing, Chinese experts say: Beijing has long tried to overhaul the economy to become more dependent on domestic consumption.
But the blueprints were undeniably shaped by Trump’s attacks.
“Changes in U.S.-China relations increased the necessity of these policies,” said Mei Xinyu, a researcher who advises the Commerce Ministry. Mei said he was not “overly hopeful” that Biden would cancel Trump’s tariffs and said Chinese companies should be ready to live under the assumption of a “high-tariff environment.”
Taiwan frets over how a Biden administration would deal with China
Biden and his advisers have said many of Trump’s China policies, included tariffs, are ineffective and should be reconsidered. Biden has also accused China of stealing intellectual property and pledged to invest in American workers and technology to compete with China, but it’s not clear if he would use tools like Trump's sanctions against Chinese technology companies.
Some Chinese are troubled by the pervasive gloominess. Ren Yi, a Harvard-educated independent writer in Beijing, said there was a growing trend among Chinese academics, bureaucrats, and ordinary people to assume the two countries are destined for conflict.
Ren, who writes one of the country’s most popular political columns on WeChat, said he has tried to tell readers that a Democratic administration would likely focus on domestic issues, and most Americans are not preoccupied with China. But “mainstream Chinese have become disillusioned with America,” he said. “The trade war was a catalyst. Then came [Trump’s sanctions on] Huawei, TikTok, the use of American power against us, the dispute over the Hong Kong movement.”
'He knows the red line'
At a rally in Taipei on Oct. 25, a man holds a sign demanding the release of 12 Hong Kongers who were detained at sea by Chinese authorities while trying to flee Hong Kong for Taiwan. (David Chang/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)
If there is room for optimism in Beijing, it is that Biden is a relatively known quantity and Chinese analysts expect he would adhere to norms in diplomacy and negotiation.  Biden has also talked up his extensive foreign policy record and experience meeting Chinese leaders. Xi, during a 2013 meeting in Beijing, called Biden “my old friend.”
Victor Gao, a professor at China’s Soochow University and a former Foreign Ministry official, said he believed Beijing looked forward to somebody who was not Trump. “Trump is a man without decency,” he said. “China will be happy to deal with a president who is a man of decency.”
Xin Qiang, a professor at Fudan University who studies the United States and Taiwan, said some aspects of the bilateral relationship, like technological competition with the United States, have been “changed forever.” But Xin predicted normalcy to return on sensitive issues like Taiwan. Biden would likely support the island democracy, which China claims as its territory, but avoid risky actions that could provoke military conflict, he said.
[On China’s front line, emerging cold war haunts battle-worn Taiwanese islands]
In recent months, China has expressed displeasure with the warming ties between the Trump administration and Taiwan by dispatching fighter jets into Taiwanese airspace and airing propaganda warning bluntly of war. The Trump administration has supported Taiwan by selling advanced weaponry and dispatching senior officials to visit.
But Xin and other experts acknowledge concerns about the future. A Pew Research Center poll this year showed U.S. sentiment toward China dropping to all-time lows, Xin said, and Chinese are already aware that “China-bashing could become worse” with the rise of a younger generation of U.S. politicians who may seek the presidency in 2024.
“I think there are considerable American forces who embrace trying to suppress China’s rise,” said Mei, the Commerce Ministry-affiliated researcher. “We are willing to improve relations with the United States, but we must not overlook the existence of these forces.”
He summed up the mood in Beijing.
When it comes to U.S. relations, Mei said, “prepare for the worst, and strive for the best.”
Dou reported from Seoul.
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