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距离美国总统选举投票日不到半个月，多项民意调查结果显示，全国范围内，民主党候选人乔·拜登相对共和党候选人、现任总统唐纳德·特朗普的领先优势达到两位数，但两者支持率在六大“摇摆州”逐渐缩小差距。
四年前，特朗普在民调显著落后的情况下获胜，令人大跌眼镜，选前民调可信度遭遇前所未有的质疑。这一回，民调靠谱吗？
-By almost any objective measure, the polling is incredibly favorable right now for Democrats.
Joe Biden almost daily gets national polls that show him 8, 9, 10, 11 points ahead, and he seems to be also ahead in the averages for the key states that matter in the upper Midwest and in the Sun Belt.
The problem is, Democrats have been here before.
The polls are actually quite similar to where Hillary Clinton was about three weeks out in 2016, and as we all know, those polls fell apart for Clinton in the final weeks, and then the polls were also, in some cases, not accurate.
And so there's a lot of trepidation and nervousness and paranoia among the Democratic ranks right now.
There are a couple things to think about when you're looking at the polls.
First, national polling is not how you win a presidential election in the United States.
You have to win the electoral college, which is a state-by-state contest.
And given that many of the most populous states, places like New York and California, are so heavily Democratic, the national polling results right now in this country tend to be more Democratic than the electoral college results.
And that's why both campaigns are really looking at polls in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina to determine where this election is going to go.
-A lot of people ask us, "What happened in 2016? And what does that mean for polls in 2020?" In 2016, there were many polls done in battleground states in the Midwest.
And a lot of those states didn't weight to education.
So in a lot of these Midwestern states where polling was conducted and they didn't weight to education, Hillary Clinton looked like she was winning in those polls because voters with college degrees were more likely to vote for Clinton than voters without college degrees.
So they overemphasized what her lead looked like because there were more college- educated people in those polls.
-And so this year, I have, like, a lot of skepticism for state-level polling and national-level polling.
But even with that skepticism, it is a really good polling year for the former vice president Joe Biden.
He looks very strong both in the national polls and in state polls.
I mean, just as an example of how true this is, Biden has a stronger lead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan than Trump does in Texas or South Carolina, which is shocking.
Like, just to say that out loud feels wrong, and yet it's so true, you know.
And so the thing that we're basically trying to figure out is, A, how many of the pollsters have made systemic changes to their methods and their models as a result of 2016? And the answer is many.
And then B, how much do we need to be careful about inferring state-level success from those big national polls where Biden is, you know, up 9 or up 10 points? -So we're just now releasing a "Washington Post" average of national polls and polls in several different battleground and key states.
And we choose different polls that are released publicly to include in these averages.
And that includes polls that meet certain standards that we've set up.
-In 2020, one measure of this race that's very different is that polling is much less important.
Something like 35 million votes have already been counted in the United States.
The early voting tide is enormous, and what this does, effectively, is lock in voter preferences from much earlier in the cycle.
So there are voters who were casting votes in September and October, before we've even had a chance for any of these, like, October surprise-type moments -- you know, the President getting coronavirus or whatever new thing is gonna come next week.
Many of those things would be considered to be, like, late-breaking movers for these people who are, you know, making last-second decisions.
But now those folks have already voted, and a lot of them have already voted.
Their votes are locked in, and it's already gone.
-What we know from the polls right now is that Joe Biden is winning both nationally and in a number of these states.
In a second category of states that include places like Iowa and Ohio and Florida, Arizona, it's basically too close to call at the moment.
But he does have statistical leads in a number of places.
It's not at all clear, though, that that's going to be the final outcome.
These polls are snapshots of where the country's at right now.
They do not predict elections.
So I think voters have to keep paying attention to where the polls go and acknowledge after reading them that, you know, the final result may be a few points off.
【“战场”胶着】
雅虎新闻委托舆观调查公司16日至18日做网络调查，显示拜登和特朗普的支持率分别为51%和40%，差距为今年选前全国性民调最大。拜登领先幅度较前一周增加3个百分点。全国公共广播电台与公共广播公司联合民调、全国广播公司与《华尔街日报》联合民调也显示拜登支持率领先11个百分点。
“真正透明政治”网站综合各家民调平均数据报道，自9月29日总统候选人首场辩论以来，拜登领先幅度从6.1个百分点扩大到8.9个百分点，近两周支持率稳定保持在51%以上。
只是，总统选举并非靠普选票、而是靠各州的选举人票决定胜负。2016年，民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿民调领先，在全国范围获得的普选票比特朗普多200万票，但根据选举人票“赢者通吃”的规则，特朗普拿下多个关键的“摇摆州”，赢得过半选举人票，因而当选。
今年选举，佛罗里达、北卡罗来纳、亚利桑那、威斯康星、宾夕法尼亚和密歇根六大“摇摆州”是必争之地。拜登目前在这些州的支持率领先，但最近三周难以拉大差距，且领先优势有时在民调误差范围之内。
路透社与益普索集团19日发布的民调结果显示，拜登在宾州以49%领先特朗普的45%，差距较前一周缩小3个百分点；在佛州，拜登49%，特朗普47%；北卡为48%对47%；亚利桑那是50%对46%。拜登在威斯康星和密歇根两州优势最大，均为51%对43%。
【修正“错误”】
一些分析师认为，特朗普言行引发众多争议，支持他的选民在接受调查时可能倾向于不表态。
特朗普曾在动员选民时说：“民调上次错了，这次错得更多。”
益普索分析师克里斯·杰克逊告诉法新社记者，四年前投票日前夕，民调预测希拉里在全国得票率小幅领先是正确的，失准的地方出自中西部“摇摆州”。原因之一是民调所采样本中，无大学学历白人居民人数较少，代表性不足，而这一群体中不少人支持特朗普。
大多数民调机构表示，这次已经修正采样方法，避免再犯相同错误。在四年前几个预测“出错”的“关键州”，调查更仔细、更频繁。
民调专家还注意到，相比上届大选，今年调查结果呈现较大连贯性：自今年春天以来，拜登平均领先幅度未低于4个百分点。而2016年，特朗普和希拉里在支持率曲线两次交叉，“胜负”易位，显示不稳定性。
另外，一些分析师认为，由于美国政治氛围高度两极化，尚未决定投票意向的中间选民较少，在最后一刻导致结果翻盘的可能性较小。
【仍难预测】
民调机构和选举分析师谨慎指出，民调结果并不足以准确预测投票结果，而且民调存在误差。
美国各地选民登记情况差异巨大，令投票率预测格外困难。从以往经验看，共和党选民通常比民主党选民投票积极性更高。两党在最后冲刺阶段比拼的是谁能动员更多选民出门投票。
受疫情影响，今年邮寄投票和提前投票的比例达到历史最高水平。“我们不清楚这会产生什么样的效果，”益普索分析师杰克逊说。诸多复杂因素影响投票，增大结果预测难度。
“这场竞选比我们在推特和电视上看到的分析激烈得多，”拜登竞选团队经理珍·奥马利·狄隆说，“在决定胜负的关键战场州，我们和特朗普仍然不相上下。”
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