华盛顿邮报：拜登想赢特朗普，必须闯过这四关！（附视频&解说稿）

在美国近几个月的“主流民调”中，民主党候选人拜登的大选前景一片看好。截至8月2日，专业数据网站FiveThirtyEight综合筛选和分析那些“采取科学调查方法”的主流民意调查数据，结果显示，拜登的全国支持率均值以50.2％对41.9％领先现任总统特朗普。

这是民主党总统候选人自1996年以来创造的夏季最大领先幅度。主流民调之一“佐格比民调”的主持者、资深民调专家约翰·佐格比分析称，在经济下行和疫情失控导致特朗普支持率下降的情况下，拜登的高支持率能再维持几个星期，但能确定的也就是几个星期。

不过，作为民主党支持者的佐格比也强调指出，媒体和公众需要意识到，民意调查只是对当时情况的快照，而不是对未来的准确预测。当前拜登在民调中的领先，并不意味着他能在大选中稳赢，“目前这种支持率差距其实是非常危险和不稳定的。”

那么拜登如果想赢得总统大选，打败特朗普，《华盛顿邮报》的分析视频认为，拜登需要搞定这四个事情。

-We still have more than 100 days till this election, but at this point you're losing. 

-First of all, I'm not losing because those are fake polls. 

-It's just over 100 days until the election. This is your "2020 Fix." As we head down the home stretch of the election, Joe Biden has a growing and consistent lead in the polls, with recent polls including one from "The Washington Post" and ABC News showing him leading by double digits. Biden appears to have grown his lead in large part because of negative reviews of the President's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Trump faces a deficit that has few comparisons in modern politics, especially when it comes to incumbent presidents. At the same time, there are more than 100 days until the election, and things can change. 

Here are four things to watch out for. 

Number one is a potential Supreme Court vacancy. We learned recently that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has a recurrence of cancer a few months ago. She says she's doing better and plans to stay on the Court for the foreseeable future. But the idea of a vacancy that could push the Court even more towards conservatives is something that could help rally the Republican base. At the same time in 2018, Republicans thought the treatment of then Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh might help them in the midterm elections. In the end, though, the Democrats actually retook the House. 

A second thing to watch for as we approach the election is the shift from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. This is something that often helps Republicans, whose voters are more likely to turn out to vote. "The Washington Post" ABC News poll showed Biden leading by 15 points overall. But when you focused on voters who were certain to vote in the election, that margin dropped to 11 points. And when you focused on voters who are certain to vote this time and also voted in 2016, the margin was just 7 points. 

A third thing to watch out for is whether Joe Biden stumbles in the closing weeks of the campaign. Biden has a very demonstrative history of committing gaffes as a candidate and has shown himself to be somewhat unsteady at certain points during his campaign. This campaign will shift in the closing weeks. There will be debates, there will be potentially more person-to-person campaigning, and there will be more scrutiny of both candidates. 

The fourth thing to watch out for is the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Democrats appear to have built a big advantage when it comes to use of vote by mail, which has been expanding in many states across the country. At the same time, polls show that Republicans are significantly less concerned about the virus, which suggests that election day turnout could be more favorable for them than it might otherwise be.