Covid 19 Math Model for US Prediction and China Actions Analysis
美国新冠肺炎疫情预测数学模型，及中国策略的分析
by China Well Known Whistle Blower HUANG ZS 黄仲生
(V 2020,0324,2000)
PDF Online Version Link  (real time updating)
https://shimo.im/docs/Bo74Q3apDFEPAISq/
Report Content
1) My prediction of confirmed cases made on March 2 matches almost US actual number for the past 20 days. How did I do?
1）我3月2日时预测美国确诊人数，过去20天几乎完全吻合，我是如何做的？
2) The day by day prediction number of US. infected people(33 mln), confirmed cases(18 mln), death rate(6%+), death(>500 k)by the end of April. And my clear math model method (2 minutes reading for high school math background)
2）从今天到4月底时（括号内为4月底数字），美国的感染人数（3300万）、确诊人数（1800万）、死亡率（6%+）、死亡人数（>50万）的每一天的预测值，以及清晰的数学模型逻辑 （高中数学背景的2分钟即可读懂）
3) What's the virus spreading math model, on 13 Different Gov. Policies And People Behaviors (each has daily growth rate or/and eventually spreading R0)
3）在13种不同的政府政策和民众行为模式下，对应的病毒传播的数学模型（每种都包含日复增长率和终极R0），可清晰看到各种策略下病毒传播的结果
4) What did Wuhan do in 3 phases? What's the math result day by day correspondly. What's the China secret?
4）武汉在3个不同的阶段分别做了什么？对应每一天的数学结果是如何？为什么中国能控制住疫情？
5) Comparison between Wuhan with US on math model. BIG DISCOVERY!
5）对比武汉和美国同时间的策略和传播结果，有惊人发现！
6) What should US do RIGHT NOW
6）美国此时此刻应立即做到什么
7) Who am I? Why do I do?
7）我是谁？为什么我做这事？
有视频讲解全文，只要有高中数学基础，10分钟就能听懂所有我讲的东西：
https://m.weibo.cn/1674093274/4485844624469332
I am a China well known Covid 19 whistle blower.
I have a proven (last 20 days) US new cases prediction math model and next 6 weeks prediction under different senarios. You can have confirmed cases, infected people, death rate, death number day by day by the end of April.
And I can explain every single action that China took and how it works in math model result.
All based on solid sciense, logic, actual data and China actual actions
我是中国知名的欧美新冠肺炎吹哨人
我有对美国确诊人数的准确数学模型预测（过去20天完全证明），以及截止到4月底基于各种情况下的预测，包括每一天的感染人数、确诊人数、死亡率、死亡人数
我可以清晰解释中国到底在对抗疫情上做了什么，以及对应数学上的结果
以上所有都基于：科学、严谨逻辑、真实的数据、和中国实际行动
0）
Virus spreading fits exponential model, which is completely different from linear growth in 30 days
1）
My previous model is well proved for the past 12 days
2）
How do I do next 10 days prediction
How do I estimate infected people number
What may US do next and what's the growth rate accordingly
The result of US by the end of April
If you only want to know US result, you may stop reading here
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If you want to know what China did, how it results in math, and what US must do right now, you may keep reading
3）
Virus Spreading Math Model On 13 Different Gov. Policies And People Behaviours 
Detail discription and growth rate numbers
4）
What did China do and what is the result accordingly. Focus on Wuhan case
5）
Wuhan Vs. US.
Comparison since the day that infected people number reached around 100
Part 1, In the first 30 days
Part 2, In the first 60 days
6）
What should US do RIGHT NOW?
At this moment, the US country is take actions randamly with some areas following 2) Social Distancing 2, while others following 3) Panic Home Isolation 1, shown in our Chart of 13 Suggested Measures, and all thses two fall in the category of Majority Without Mask.
Daily growing rate will maintain at 18.6% with monthly multiple of 21x. All these measures are far from holding virus spreading and rapid increase of infected population.
First of all, the Goverment should make clear of overall statistics of the infected people (It is estimated to have 138,000 infected by today of March 20th.), and of the situation of rapid spreading (Nowadays, the crazy spreading is still proceeding everyday at about 30% of daily growing rate, relating with monthly multiple of 2600x ! )  I t should be adequitely aware of definite infection of a huge  population afterwards, with medical resources  breakdown, mortality rate increasing dramatically above 6%, and the reality of death of large population within a short period of time.
America will be shown as an example, and other cuntries could follow the simillar strategies.
The strongest strategy needs to land immediately and reduce the coronavirus spreading immediately
  • The regions in the United States that do not follow strict rules today are doing 2) Social Distancing  2; And some regions are doing 3) Panic Home Isolation 1 (both definitions assume the most citizens without wearing mask), the daily growth rate will still be 18.6%, which means the infected people will rise to 21 times monthly. It is definitely far from enough to stop the spread of the virus and the number of infections will increase dramatically!
  • Announce a State of WAR immediately, and soon the whole society will do 4) Complete Isolation. Stop almost all indoor offices, factories, schools; And stop almost all offline retail, catering, entertainment, services, aviation, public transportation with  confined spaces; And stop almost all other situations that cause people gathering in order to stop the spread of the virus;
  • Correspondingly the society goes into the most stringent solution immediately of 4) Complete Isolation 3 (All the citizens were isolated indoor, all the materials were delivered to the families and square cabin hospital isolated all the mild and suspected cases, in Wuhan, China during that critical period  of time.). At least, it should be done to 4) Complete Isolation1 immediately, to block social spreading, but bear the result of continuous double transmission in the family.
  • Build square cabin hospitals immediately to isolate people with mild illness.
  • Mobilize the mainstream media to adequately publicize the harmness of the virus to cause appropriate panic, and establish a proper understanding of knowhow to avoid infection, including wearing a mask to avoid contact to the greatest extent. Infected people at home are immediately isolated from each other. Those people who are having symptoms, or who might contact the infected person, need to get tested immediately. Appropriate panic allows people to stay better at home, and to keep people from being further infected with as few government-enforced resources costs as possible. Tell people why should do rather than what to do. 
  • Getting masks for the American people, only one mask per person even for repeated use is better than nothing whether by importing or building mask factories.
  • Establish simple shelters to house tramps to block their possibility of spreading the virus.
Guarantee the most basic supply of subsistence materials under social stagnation and maintain social order.
  • Mobilize the army and police to maintain social order, secure of materials transportation (especially food and medicines), and do not allow people to go out shopping, especially if everyone has no masks.
  • If the supplies are not enough, in order to avoid the situation that some people have no food after the panic and looting, the government needs to temporarily change to a rationing system to ensure that noone would  starve to death.
  • Equip the military and police with adequate medical protective equipment to avoid their infection to  the greatest extent as possible. If they collapse, social order will collapse, and the supply of living materials will collapse as well. If people are forced to go out to get food, and the coronavirus would not be controlled. And then there must be plenty of terrible violence happened.
  • When most industries are completely shut down, the bottom line is to guarantee the operation of civilian production, such as food, medicine, water, electricity, natural gas, and so on. The law State of WAR is needed to enforce them to keep running. But the premise is to distribute enough coronavirus isolation supplies (masks, goggles, gloves, disinfectants) to protect the corresponding workers. Prevent the collapse of the basic civilian production industry after their infection and collapse.
  • Trace the infected patients closely. After they are rehabilitate and able to work, dispatch them to the most critical civilian industry.
Safeguard the medical system and keep it running in case of breakdown
  • Do everything possible to get more medical protection supplies to protect doctors and nurses fighting on the front line. They should not be sacrificed. Otherwise, national confidence collapses immediately.
  • Use the law of State of WAR to temporarily take over private hospitals as state-owned, temporarily requisition private doctors and nurses. Prepare as much medical resources as possible, and delay the day when the medical system is broken down.
  • Get more ventilators and other equipment for the hospital.
  • Prepare medical resources, such as ICU as soon as possible. After medical system is punctured, do not let critical  patients who cannot be treated go home. Establish places of hospice to 1) comfort life, 2) stop them spreading the virus at home; 3) prevent them from being overly emotional and retaliating against society and medical personnel.
Don't s
  • Instead of confrontation with China, The United States should put down prejudices for the time being. The United States needs China's help to fight the epidemic. The lives and health of people in the United States are more important than politics, more important than the economy, and more important than elections ! I especially care about the safety of Chinese people in the United States. I cannot accept that the American politicians sacrifice our Chinese citizens for your personal political demands.
  • Please don't guide the emotions of exclusion of Chinese people. The America needs the support and help from China and the Chinese!
  • Please don't keep thinking about sending money to people, doing quantitative easing and lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and the stock market. When people's lives cannot be guaranteed, and the food supply cannot be guaranteed, what's the use of money? It's like if you offer  a sick bedridden person with 1000 dollars instead of supplying him/her with medicine, and with food, can the money save him/her?
7）
Who am I
  • 黄仲生，HUANG Zhongsheng, Chinese, at Shanghai
  • Graduated from Fudan University (China top 4)
  • Worked in CR（China No.1 new economy investment bank）
  • Worked in GGV (Global tier 1 VC, managing 6 bln usd, invested Alibaba, Bytedance, Airbnb, Square）
  • Founded 2 internet companies and raised over 20 mln usd financing, but failed. starting a new auto-AR company now
  • Very strong at logic thinking and math modeling. Objective
  • Deep studied the whole process of gov. action, people behavior and data result of China, Euro, US Corona virus pandemic
  • From 0 to 10K+ global followers on my whistle blowing reports since March 9
Why do I do Euro/ US Corona Virus whistle blowing
  • Extracted my family from US before too late
  • To warn Euro/US people that it's MUCH MUCH worse than what they can imagine, with solid prediction based on logic and actual data. And all prediction data are proven for the past 20 days
  • I hope everyone can realize the fact, get well prepared, do the right thing, and survive from this world war III against virus
  • No interest related
  • All content I provide are free (article, data, raw model, video)
Appendix）
美国现在应该做什么：
  • 首先政府必须搞清楚病毒当前在美国的感染人数情况（3月22日已经有29万感染者），和快速传播的情况（今天还在以以每天30%左右的日复增长率在疯狂传播，对应月复倍数2600x）！充分意识到接下来一定是大量人口感染，医疗资源被击穿，死亡率快速上升到6%以上，大量人口短时间死亡的现实。
  • 能充分意识到，每种不同的策略和民众行为，在一个月以后会产生什么结果。意识到今天美国这种松散的部分地区2）减少社交2，和部分地区 3）居家隔离1 的隔离程度（两者定义都涵盖主流民众不戴口罩），日复增长率将仍有18.6%，月复倍数21x。是远远不够阻断病毒传播和感染人数暴增的！充分意识到只有 4）完全隔离3（需要方舱医院）才能真正阻断病毒传播。再不济，也要做到4）完全隔离1，但4月底感染人数是前者的2.5倍。
  • 能把国家目标从美好的幻想，如保障经济，保障就业，救治感染者等，调整到合理的目标：能阻断病毒无限传播到所有人，百万计病亡的能善终，没感染的百姓不饿死，绝望的感染者和没食物没收入的民众产生的动乱能控制下来，美国国家机器不崩溃。当然药品和疫苗不需要我提醒。
  • 我这里举美国例子来说，其他国家策略基本相同；
Do's
需要最强策略立即落地，马上降低病毒传播
  • 今天美国这种松散的部分地区2）减少社交2，和部分地区 3）居家隔离1的隔离程度（两者定义都涵盖主流民众不戴口罩），日复增长率将仍有18.6%，月复倍数21x。是远远不够阻断病毒传播和感染人数暴增的！
  • 立即宣布进入战争状态，很快做到全社会 4）全面隔离。停止几乎所有室内办公、工作，停止学校，停止线下零售、餐饮、娱乐、服务，停止航空、密闭空间的公共交通，以及其他所有导致人员聚集传染的情况；
  • 对应马上立即进入最严格的 4）完全隔离3，（武汉全员隔离不出门 + 物资外部配送到门 + 方舱医院隔离疑似&轻症）。再不济也要立即做到 4）完全隔离1，至少阻断社会传播，但承受家庭内持续翻倍传播的结果。
  • 立即建设方舱医院，马上隔离轻症的人；
  • 调动媒体，足够程度宣传病毒的危害，引起适当的恐慌，建立起应该如何避免感染的正确认识，包括戴口罩，最大限度避免接触，家里有人感染立即互相隔离，有症状，或有怀疑和潜在感染者接触，就立即去做检测，等等。适当的恐慌能让民众较好地呆在家中，在尽可能少政府强制实施资源成本的情况下，仍能保持民众少被进一步感染。not tell them what to do, but why to do；
  • 为美国人民弄到口罩，每人1个反复用也比没有强。不管是进口还是去建设口罩厂；
  • 建立简易场所收留流浪汉，阻断因此传播病毒的可能；
保障在社会停摆下的最基础的生存物资供应，以及维持社会秩序
  • 调动军队和警察，来维持社会秩序安全和生活物资运转（尤其是食物和药品），不能让民众出门去购买，尤其在大家都没口罩的情况下；
  • 如果物资不够，为了避免恐慌哄抢后，部分人什么食物都没有的情况，政府需要临时强制改成配给制度，保证每个人不会饿死；
  • 为军队和警察，配上足够好的医疗防护用品，最大可能避免他们的感染。他们如果崩溃，社会治安会崩溃，生活物资的供给会崩溃。民众被迫出门去获取食物，病毒传播就无法控制。且一定会发生大量暴力事件。
  • 大部分产业全停摆的情况下，最底线保障民生产业，如食物，药品，水，电，天然气，等等的运转。需要动用战争法强制他们保持运转。但前提是发放足够的病毒隔离用品（口罩、眼镜、手套、消毒），保护相应劳动者。防止他们感染崩溃后社会基本民生产业的崩溃。
  • 定向追踪感染，但最后康复免疫的劳动力，将他们调度到最关键的民生保障产业；
保障医疗系统，在被击穿的情况下，维持运转
  • 想尽一切办法弄到更多的医疗保护用品，保护在前线作战的医生护士，他们不能牺牲。否则国家信心立即崩溃；
  • 用战争法，临时征用私立医院为国有，临时征用私人医生和护士，尽可能多的筹备医疗资源，让医疗系统被击穿的这一天来得晚一点；
  • 为医院弄到更多的呼吸机等设备；
  • 准备医疗资源如ICU被击穿后，不要把无法收治的重症病人放回家。建立临终关怀的场所。起到：1）抚慰生命、2）停止他们继续回家传播；3）防止他们情绪过激做出报复社会、医护人员的行为；
Don't s
  • 不要再中国对立，可以暂时先放下成见，美国对抗疫情需要中国的帮助。现在在美国的人们的生命和健康比政治重要、比经济重要、比选举重要！我尤其在意在美国的中国人的安危，我不接受你为了你的个人诉求，去牺牲我们的同胞！
  • 不要引导排华情绪，你需要中国和中国人的支持和帮助！
  • 不要老想着发钱，搞量化宽松降低利率来刺激经济，刺激股市。百姓的生命安全都保障不了，食物的供给保障不了，拿钱又有什么用？就像你给一个病入膏肓，卧床不起家人，不给药品，不给食物，而却发了1000美金，这能救他吗？
以下部分为固定内容，和之前一样：
--------------------------------------------
我的特别声明
如果你现在身在海外欧美，并不回国，那么如果明白了我所说的，则应该：
立即出发去屯最少最少3个月不出门不饿死的物资！
以及武器！（非常非常重要！）
尽可能和其他中国人一起抱团聚集居住，不要独居！
即使你定了机票，但仍有可能有航班变动的风险。如果是我，我会立即两手准备，毕竟
这是有威胁我健康和生命安全的事，我会尽我所有力量去把风险尽可能降低。但大家应自行决策
我再次强调：
3月底的欧洲和美国，是比武汉最艰难时还要惨得多的处境！
3月底的欧洲和美国，是比武汉最艰难时还要惨得多的处境！
3月底的欧洲和美国，是比武汉最艰难时还要惨得多的处境！
新冠肺炎疫情在接下来几个月，是对欧洲和美国的一场大劫难！会有大量让人无法接受的悲剧发生。疫情对欧美的伤害，要远远远远超过过去2个月对中国的影响。大家千万不要以中国成功应对疫情守下来的结果，来想当然理解欧洲美国接下来的处境！
我所有的预测和观点，在我过去几篇公众号文中，有非常完整的解释和分析、有非常合逻辑的理论依据，以及已经被充分验证的数据支持！同时这几天世界上发生的一系列大事，都是证明！我也在视频中尝试能讲得更通俗一点，能让大家真的能反应过来，及时采取行动！
需要帮助
  • 我每天只睡5个小时，剩下时间都在全速表达我认知到的事情。虽然我已经影响了上百个人和家庭，迅速改变计划，回中国，或者留在当地，但储备好最少最少3个月的物资和保护自己的武器。但我发现绝大部分海外的中国人，尚未意识到他们将面对着什么......
  • 希望能尽快改变更多海外中国人的错误判断，能在too late之前做好心理准备和实际准备，在这场灾难中生存下来！
  • 同时我希望能读懂我的信息的人，能及时将信息传播出去，帮助到更多的人。如果可以，请转发微信微博给有你关心的朋友。以及在油管上收藏、点赞、转发、评论视频、订阅等，都能提升视频被推荐给关心欧美疫情的人的机率，谷歌能根据算法，将这类受到大家重视在意的视频，定向推荐给在欧美正面临疫情威胁的人们。你们这么做，就可以帮助到更多人！
  • 以及因为我人微言轻，我即使判断得再对，表达得再好，但很可能没能及时改变海外中国人的认知，那我也是失败。谁是有更高的影响力，或者公众信任感的，或者表达技巧的，希望能一起来发声，在每天快速恶化的疫情灾难面前，争分多秒地尽可能帮助更多的人！也可以直接将我的所有内容直接拿去，也不需要署我名字，我的初心是报答在海外的中国人们。
  • 另外，回国航班越来越困难了，大部分在外的中国人会在欧洲和美国当地对抗疫情。但我相信大家一定可以取得胜利！如果是回国的，一定要遵守国家的规定，及时如实地上报所有信息，按规定配合检查、集中隔离、居家隔离、接受医疗等，避免将疫情扩散到国内。这也是作为中国人应尽的义务！
全篇都是我对未来判断的“观点”，而不是既成“事实”，免责声明
  • 整篇是我个人收集信息，独立思考后的”观点”，事情还未成为“事实”。虽然我不愿看到我的判断是对的，我无比希望这个世界能好好的，每个人都能平平安安的，我也无比恳求我的判断是错的，希望被啪啪打脸嘲笑的。我真的希望过了一个月，事情根本没我判断那么遭，我被所有人骂SB，骂哗众取宠，骂危言耸听，我也期待看到那样一个好很多的世界。但我目前个人非常肯定这事会这么发展下去。
  • 我希望我的观点，可能对一些人有帮助。特别是现在人在海外的中国人！我看到这次你们为中国本土的人们捐了这么多口罩、医疗物资，我非常非常感动！我很庆幸我生在中国，我很自豪我是中国人，我们是一家互相支持，团结一起的民族。因此我可能帮不到很多外国人，但我希望海外中国人能及时消化一下我的“观点“，了解到现有认知的偏误，能在too late前采取一些行动，保护好自己！
  • 但我必须郑重说明一下，我愿意说出我的观点，也愿意实名署名。但也很有可能我的所有观点是错的，是危言耸听。每个人还是要根据自己最后消化的想法来做自己独立的决定，和具体行动，并且为此行动自己独立负责。我无法承担，也不应承担每个人因为我的观点而做出的行动的任何后果或者责任。希望大家能明白和理解。
我是谁
  • 我不是政府人员，也不是任何疫情、医学方面专家。我只是有一些独立思考能力，这段时间特别关注欧美疫情情况，突然意识到严重的问题！
  • 我叫黄仲生，写上名字是为了给这份吹哨背书，我希望大家能重视我的观点，而不是当小报危言耸听的谣言来看。我不希望出名或因此有什么回报，更渴望我的观点全是错的，我被啪啪打脸。我只是真真切切因为看到海外中国人这次为祖国人民做了那么多，我很感动很感动，我希望他们每一个人都平平安安而已！
  • 我中国985大学毕业，曾工作于投行，和一线新经济风险投资机构，后6年创业经历，也大起大落过。我想说我的观点不是无依据无理由的瞎编，值得去消化。
  • 我因为刚意识到情况的严重性，写得很仓促，抢时间让华人了解。因此没来得及检查校对，和确认其中细节，难免偏误。如果有任何错误，请立即和我说，我一定虚心改正！以及我会后续补上更新的版本。
祈福所有中国人，和世界上每一个人，都能平平安安！在这场人类劫难中生存下来！
疫情终究会结束！世界永远有希望！
祈祷我的观点全部都是错的！
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