近日，美国传统基金会(The Heritage Foundation)的Roe经济政策研究所经济学家Tori Smith发文称，正如众多美国制造商所抱怨的、美联储的新报告也证实了，特朗普的关税不仅对美国企业和经济造成了显而易见的短期痛苦，还可能产生更加深远的影响。他指出，在新的一年里，降低贸易壁垒的战略可能成为扭转痛苦、促进未来增长的催化剂。
图片 | Pixabay
近两年来，美国制造商一直在分享新的进口关税是如何损害它们的利润的。从钢铁到汽车零部件，似乎所有东西都更贵了，但特朗普总统贸易政策的支持者试图通过指出美国相对较低的通胀率来反驳这些说法。
For nearly two years, American manufacturers have shared how new import tariffs are hurting their bottom lines. Everything from steel to car parts seems more expensive, but supporters of President Trump’s trade policy have tried to refute these claims by pointing to relatively low inflation in the U.S..
然而，美联储的一份新报告证实了这些制造商的说法。美国2018年和2019年的关税提高了生产者的整体原料价格，减少了制造业就业。此外，贸易伙伴的报复也对该行业的就业产生了负面影响。
A new report by the Federal Reserve, however, confirms the stories of so many manufacturers. The U.S. tariffs of 2018 and 2019 increased input prices for producers and decreased manufacturing employment. Furthermore, retaliation by trading partners also negatively impacted employment in the sector.
制造业的一些子部门经历了小幅就业增长，但这种增长是短暂的。2019年全年，吹嘘增加就业的美国钢铁和其他国内制造商随后就宣布裁员并关闭工厂。
Some sub-sectors of manufacturing have experienced modest employment increases, but they have been short-lived. Throughout 2019, U.S. Steel and other domestic manufacturers that touted job increases have subsequently announced layoffs and plant closures. 
简而言之，当前的贸易争端和关税带来了短期的收益和短期的痛苦。那么，这对未来几年美国制造业的健康又意味着什么呢?
In a nutshell, there has been short-term gain and short-term pain associated with the ongoing trade disputes and tariffs. What does this mean for the health of American manufacturing in the coming years?
如果更高贸易壁垒的现状持续到2020年，今天制造业感受到的短期痛苦可能会产生长期影响。也就是说，制造商将越来越多地被迫提高价格，以弥补不断上升的生产成本。对美国家庭来说，这意味着更高的通货膨胀和购买力的下降。
If the status quo of higher trade barriers persists in 2020, the short-term pain felt in manufacturing today could have long-term effects. Namely, manufacturers will be increasingly forced to raise prices to make up for their rising production costs. For American families, this means higher inflation and a decrease in purchasing power.
随着美国相对于世界其他地区的价格上涨，美国制造商与世界其他地区竞争的能力也将下降。这可能会抑制销售，相对于其他国家而言，制造业在美国的盈利能力下降。
As prices in the U.S. rise relative to the rest of the world, American manufacturers will also experience a decrease in their ability to compete with the rest of the world. This could depress sales and make manufacturing a less profitable business in the U.S., relative to other countries.
最后，维持现状可能会使更高的投入成本成为新常态。国内企业投资，以及外国直接投资，都低于当前经济状况下应有的水平。由于企业被迫支付关税，而不是扩大业务和劳动力，未来投资可能继续滞后。
Finally, maintaining the status quo could make higher input costs the new normal. Domestic business investment, as well as foreign direct investment, is less than it should be under the current economy. Investment could continue to lag in the future as businesses are forced to pay tariffs rather than expand their operations and workforce.
关税阻碍了美国在2019年的经济增长，但由于税收和监管壁垒已经很低，美国经济有望在2020年取得成功。在新的一年里降低贸易壁垒的战略可能成为未来增长的催化剂。
Tariffs have held U.S. economic growth back in 2019, but with already low taxes and regulatory barriers, the economy is primed for success in 2020. A strategy of lowering trade barriers in the New Year could be the catalyst for future growth. 
在贸易方面，特朗普政府和国会应该采取四项措施，确保美国制造商和整个经济都能受益：

1. 美联储的最新报告证实，关税对美国经济产生了负面影响。取消对洗衣机、太阳能产品、钢铁和铝的进口关税将是积极的第一步。
2. 在2020年，解决与中国的贸易问题仍应是一个优先事项。特朗普政府设置的壁垒伤害了美国人，几乎没有给他们带来任何好处。正在进行的谈判的目标应该是解决结构性问题，同时取消2018年和2019年对从中国进口商品征收的关税。这些关税绝不可以成为新常态。
3. 特朗普政府专注于修订或重新谈判现有的贸易协定，比如韩美自由贸易协定和美国－墨西哥－加拿大协议。除了在2019年与日本达成一项小型协议外，在达成新的贸易协定方面几乎没有取得什么进展。美国应重点寻求与英国、瑞士、和格鲁吉亚达成贸易协定，以及寻求与日本达成全面贸易协定。这样做将有助于进一步降低世界各地的贸易壁垒，改善美国出口商的市场准入。
4. 国会应该永久性地取消所有中间产品的关税。当汽车制造商的钢铁、房屋建筑商的木材、糖果制造商的糖等原料的壁垒很高时，美国公司可能很难展开竞争。

There are four steps on trade that the Trump administration and Congress should take to ensure gains for U.S. manufacturers and the economy as a whole：
1) The newest report by the Federal Reserve confirms that tariffs have negatively impacted the U.S. economy. Eliminating the tariffs that were imposed on imports of washers, solar products, steel, and aluminum in 2018 would be a positive first step.

2) Addressing trade concerns with China should remain a priority in 2020. The barriers imposed by the Trump administration have hurt Americans with little to no benefit. The goal of ongoing negotiations should be to address structural concerns while eliminating the tariffs that were imposed on imports from China in 2018 and 2019. These tariffs cannot become the new normal.

3) The Trump administration has concentrated on revising or renegotiating existing trade agreements, such as with the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Very little has been achieved in reaching new trade agreements, aside from a mini deal with Japan in 2019. The U.S. should focus on seeking trade agreements with the U.K., Switzerland, and Georgia, as well as pursue a full-scale trade agreement with Japan. Doing so will help to further lower barriers around the world and improve market access for American exporters.

4) Congress should permanently eliminate tariffs on all intermediate goods. When barriers are high on things such as steel for carmakers, wood for homebuilders and sugar for candy makers, it can be difficult for American companies to compete.
美国企业和经济遭受的短期痛苦显而易见。特朗普总统不仅应该扭转这种痛苦，还应该采取新的贸易议程，优先消除国内外的贸易壁垒。
The short-term pain inflicted on American businesses and the economy writ large is painfully obvious. President Trump should not only reverse this pain, but adopt a new trade agenda that prioritizes eliminating trade barriers at home and abroad.（完）
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