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特朗普总统喜欢将市场玩弄于股掌之间。本周，在总统暗示与中国的贸易协定将推迟到2020年大选之后，道琼斯指数立即下跌350点。近日，经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)政策中心的高级经济学家Robert E. Scott撰文称，特朗普的关税所产生的真正的副作用是推高了美元的价值，从而导致了一些列问题。他还指出，特朗普总统忽视了美元的升值，而他与中国的贸易谈判也偏离了目
图片 | 视觉中国
特朗普总统当然喜欢将市场玩弄于股掌之间。本周总统暗示，他可能会将与中国的贸易协定推迟到2020年大选之后。道琼斯指数立即下跌350点。
President Trump certainly likes to twist the markets around his finger. This week the president suggested he might delay a trade deal with China until after the 2020 election. The Dow instantly fell 350 points.
华尔街对中美关系的现状感到不安是可以理解的，自特朗普多次征收关税以来，中美关系一直处于紧张状态。但一个关键的日子（12月15日）正在迅速临近。届时，美国政府将对价值1600亿美元的中国进口商品征收15%的关税，其中包括智能手机、玩具和其他消费品。
Wall Street is understandably jittery about the state of U.S.-China relations, since Trump has repeatedly imposed tariffs. But a key date – December 15 – is fast approaching. That’s when the administration is set to impose 15 percent tariffs on $160 billion worth of Chinese imports, including smartphones, toys and other consumer products.
新关税无疑将影响美国经济。而华尔街更希望看到一笔协议。但对华尔街有利的事情往往对美国工人不利，尤其是对国内的制造业。与中国达成协议可能会安抚紧张的投资者。但这也可能为跨国公司提供新的机会，将更多的生产外包给中国和其他亚洲市场。在2001年到2017年之间，不断增长的对华贸易已经使美国丧失了340万个工作岗位。
The new tariffs will undoubtedly impact the U.S. economy. And Wall Street would prefer to see a deal. But what’s good for Wall Street is often bad for American workers, and especially for domestic manufacturing. An agreement with Beijing might calm nervous investors. But it could also open new opportunities for multinational corporations to outsource more production to China and other Asian markets. And growing trade with China has already cost 3.4 million U.S. jobs between 2001 and 2017.
华尔街有自己自私的理由反对这些关税。但美国的工人和消费者也应该感到担忧。虽然对钢铁和铝征收关税可能帮助了美国生产商免受中国生产过剩的伤害，但更广泛的关税正开始损害美国经济，尽管原因并非许多分析人士声称的那样。
Wall Street has self-serving reasons to oppose the tariffs. But U.S. workers and consumers should also be concerned. While the tariffs on steel and aluminum may have helped U.S. producers hurt by China’s overproduction, wider tariffs are starting to hurt the economy — though not for the reasons many analysts claim.
权威专家认为特朗普的关税提高了进口成本。实际上，这不是一个重大问题，因为通胀率仍然很低。但这些关税也产生了副作用，推高了美元的价值。
Pundits argue that the Trump tariffs are raising the cost of imports. Realistically, that’s not a significant issue, since inflation remains low. But the tariffs have also unleashed a side effect — driving up the value of the U.S. dollar.
美元为何升值?关税降低了对中国进口产品的需求。这也降低了购买它们所需的外币需求。因此，美元相对于人民币等外币的价值正在上升。
Why is the dollar rising? The tariffs have reduced demand for China’s imports. And that has reduced demand for the foreign currency needed to buy them. As a result, the value of the dollar is rising relative to foreign currencies like China’s yuan.
对美国制造商和农民来说，美元升值是一个真正的问题，而且目前正在抵消关税本身的影响。自2018年3月关税首次生效以来，美元已经上涨了10%，同期美元兑人民币也上涨了11%。这降低了进口成本，增加了美国出口的成本，中和了关税的影响，整体上损害了贸易。
A rising dollar is a real problem for U.S. manufacturers and farmers, and is now offsetting the impact of the tariffs themselves. The dollar has climbed 10 percent since the tariffs first took effect in March 2018, and has also risen 11 percent against the yuan in the same period. This lowers the cost of imports and raises the cost of U.S. exports — neutralizing the tariffs’ bite and hurting trade overall.
尽管美国对中国的贸易逆差在2019年有所下降，但美国的整体贸易逆差实际上在上升。2019年，这一数字增长了5.4%，自2016年以来增长了31%。
Although the U.S. trade deficit with China declined in 2019, America’s overall trade deficit is actually rising. It’s on pace to increase 5.4 percent in 2019, a 31 percent increase since 2016. 
美元的升值还来自源源不断涌入美国金融市场的外国投资。这增加了对美元的需求。特朗普的减税政策刺激了更多的联邦借贷。美联储在2016-18年期间大幅加息，进一步推高了美元。但最近的降息并没有减缓美元的升值，这表明其他因素更为重要。
The dollar’s rise also comes from an ongoing flood of foreign investment pouring into U.S. financial markets. That creates added demand for the dollar. And the Trump tax cuts have spurred greater federal borrowing. The Fed boosted interest rates sharply in the 2016-18 period, further lifting the dollar. But recent rate cuts have not slowed the dollar’s rise, suggesting other factors are more important.
特朗普认为自己是一位支持制造业的总统。但他忽视了美元的升值，而他与中国的贸易谈判也偏离了目标。他的政府致力于为在华经营的美国公司争取更大的知识产权保护。这是一个合理的担忧，但是加强他们的知识产权保护只会让中国在更多的外包中更加安全。这是美国制造商和工人最不愿看到的。
Trump sees himself as a pro-manufacturing president. But he’s overlooking a rising dollar, and his trade negotiations with China are missing the mark. His administration is focused on securing greater intellectual property protection for U.S. firms doing business in China. It’s a valid concern, but increasing their IP protection will just make China safer for more outsourcing. And that’s the last thing America’s manufacturers and workers want.
由于美国制造业似乎在衰退边缘徘徊，这是一个紧迫的问题。美国供应管理协会(ISM)指数已经连续四个月收缩。尽管2019年美国制造业就业总体略有增长，但地区就业却出现了明显分化。1月至9月，美国中西部和大西洋中部地区的制造业就业大幅下降，尽管其它地区的制造业就业有所增长。如果经济衰退来了，可能会从各州开始。
There’s urgency here, since U.S. manufacturing appears to be flirting with recession. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index has now contracted for four straight months. And while overall U.S. manufacturing employment has increased slightly in 2019, regional employment has diverged sharply. Manufacturing employment declined significantly between January and September throughout the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, even as it has grown elsewhere. The recession, if it comes, may start in the battleground states. 
在更广泛的经济领域，过去两个季度私人国内投资总额有所下降。衰退的风险正在增加，因为经济中唯一扩张的部分是政府和消费者支出，由赤字融资的减税政策推动。
In the broader economy, gross private domestic investment has fallen in the past two quarters. The risk of recession is growing because the only expanding parts of the economy are government and consumer spending, fueled by deficit-financed tax cuts. 
美国的消费者正表现出压力，并借了更多的钱。第三季度，净国民储蓄占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重降至2%以下，为2011年以来首见。对第四季国内生产总值(GDP)增幅的预估仅为0.8% - 1.3%。11月自动资料处理公司（ADP，是一家美国人力资源管理公司，是世界最大的人力资源管理公司之一。）就业报告亦显示出更多经济放缓的迹象，该报告显示私营部门增长意外疲软，仅提供67,000个就业岗位。制造业就业率连续第三个月下滑。
America’s consumers are showing the strain, and borrowing more. Net national savings as a share of GDP fell below 2 percent in the third quarter for the first time since 2011. And estimates for fourth-quarter GDP growth range from only 0.8 to 1.3 percent. More signs of a slowdown have also appeared in the November ADP employment report, which showed surprisingly weak private sector growth of only 67,000 jobs. And manufacturing employment declining for the third month. 
市场对特朗普的关税感到不安是正确的。在经济受到影响的时候，总统威胁要采取更加激烈的贸易行动。与此同时，减少美国贸易赤字的唯一最有效的方法是将美元贬值大约25%到30%。
The markets are right to be jittery about the Trump tariffs. The president threatens ever more drastic trade actions while the economy suffers. Meanwhile the single most effective way to reduce America’s trade deficit is to lower the dollar by roughly 25 to 30 percent.
这可以通过立法手段来实现，尤其是今年早些时候美国民主党议员塔米•鲍德温和共和党议员乔希•霍利共同提出的一项两党联合提案。该法案将授权美联储对外国购买美国金融资产征税，以将美元贬值至具有竞争力的贸易平衡水平。
This could be accomplished through legislative means, particularly the bipartisan Baldwin-Hawley bill introduced earlier this year. That legislation would empower the Federal Reserve to tax foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets in order to lower the dollar to a competitive, trade-balancing level.
对特朗普总统反复无常的对华政策的担忧是有道理的。在美元升值和制造业就业下降的同时，玩弄贸易政策意味着忽视美国经济仪表板上闪烁的红色警告信号。
Concerns over President Trump’s mercurial China policy are justified. Fiddling with trade policy while the dollar climbs and manufacturing employment falls means overlooking the warning signs flashing red on America’s economic dashboard.（完）
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