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“中国打个喷嚏,世界就会感冒”。
进博会的召开再次让全世界目光聚焦中国。作为中国主动扩大进口和开放市场的重要平台,进博会彰显了中国支持经济全球化、推动贸易自由化、便利化的决心,也为世界经济发展注入更多活力。
日前,西方四大通讯社之一的路透社就刊发了评论文章,称中国经济已然取代美国,成为了世界经济“火车头”。
China has replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy, providing by far the largest contribution to growth in recent years and pulling along the world's smaller economies in its train.
中国已经取代美国成为全球经济的引擎,成为近几年来经济增长的最大贡献者,并拉动了世界上较小经济体的发展。
The Asian country accounted for 28% of all growth worldwide in the five years from 2013 to 2018, more than twice the share of the United States, according to the International Monetary Fund.

根据国际货币基金组织的数据,在2013年至2018年的五年里,这个亚洲国家占全球经济总增长的28%,是美国的两倍多。
The Fund predicts China will account for a similar share of growth over the next five years between 2019 and 2024 (“World economic outlook”, IMF, October 2019).

该机构预测,在2019年至2024年之间的五年中,中国的增长份额还是会占到类似的份额(“世界经济展望”,IMF,2019年10月)。
▲ China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Kemp (via Reuters)
2019-2024年,各国对世界经济增长的贡献占比。图 via Reuters
文章指出, 到2024年,中国、印度、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯和巴西总共将占全球经济增长的一半以上。而且这5个国家经济增长的强劲与否将直接决定世界经济是否能实现健康增长。
从上世纪70年代到90年代,美国一直被认为是世界经济的火车头,当时流行着这样的一句话:美国打个喷嚏,世界就会感冒。作者认为,如今这句话可能要换成“中国打个喷嚏,世界就会感冒”了。
The United States is still important, and the Federal Reserve remains at the center of global markets, but the U.S. economy is no longer large enough or growing fast enough to act as the sole locomotive for the world economic train.
美国仍然很重要,美联储仍是全球市场的中心,但美国经济体量已经不够大了,增长也不够快,不足以充当世界经济列车的唯一火车头。
China on its own, and the other major emerging markets collectively, are now more important drivers of the global economy.

中国和其他主要新兴市场现在是全球经济更重要的驱动力。
The traditional aphorism should probably be recast as “when China sneezes” or “when emerging markets sneeze”, the world catches a cold.
那句老话或许应该改写为“当中国打喷嚏时”或“当新兴市场打喷嚏时”,世界就会感冒。
China’s cyclical slowdowns in 2014/15 and 2018/19 were major contributory factors in the worldwide economic slowdowns in those years and China will remain central to the global cycle over the next five years.

中国2014/15年度和2018/19年度的周期性经济放缓是这两年全球经济放缓的主要原因,未来五年,中国仍将是全球周期的核心。
▲ China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Kemp (via Reuters)
图 via 新华网
接下来,在提到贸易战时,作者讲出了西方媒体很少承认的一句大实话:美国蓄意破坏中国经济。
Since early 2018, the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.
自2018年初以来,美国一直奉行蓄意损害中国经济的政策,以回应对经济实力平衡转移和不公平贸易的担忧。
Tariffs and non-tariff barriers, including tougher restrictions on market access, investment, business ownership, security blacklists, sanctions and criminal prosecutions have been employed in a “whole-of-government” effort.
(美)政府使出全力,建立关税和非关税壁垒,严格限制市场准入、投资、企业所有权,(将中国企业加入)安全黑名单、对其实施制裁,甚至刑事起诉。
The narrow, publicly stated goal has been to force China to change its industrial policies, including subsidies, state-directed lending, intellectual property protection and market access.
从小范围来看,他们想迫使中国改变其产业政策,包括补贴、国家指导性贷款、知识产权保护和市场准入。
The broader strategic aim has been to restrain the country’s growth and shore up the current U.S.-led global balance of power.
实际上他们更广泛的战略目标则是抑制中国的增长,巩固当前以美国为首的全球力量平衡。
Given China’s role as the global economic locomotive, economic warfare was bound to cause a broad slowdown in the world economy, which materialised in 2018/19.
鉴于中国作为全球经济火车头的角色,贸易战势必导致世界经济普遍放缓,这在2018至2019年间已经被现实验证。
There was simply no way to hurt China’s economy without the impact recoiling on the rest of the world, including on the United States, given China’s central role in global growth.

考虑到中国在全球经济增长中的核心作用,要想伤害中国经济,世界其他国家,包括美国,都会受到影响
▲ China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Kemp (via Reuters)
不但失去第一,连第二的位置美国可能也岌岌可危。国际货币基金组织的数据显示,在短短5年内,印度对全球经济增长的推动作用,将超过美国,成全球第二大经济增长引擎
相比美国因担心失去霸主地位,不惜以杀敌一千自损八百的方式处处为难,中国的表现更加坦然自信。正如火如荼进行中的进博会就是最好的说明。
很多外国网友都对中国的表现持肯定态度:

China becomes the world's largest consumer market this year.
中国今年成为世界上最大的消费市场

China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Not surprising at all.
中国已取代美国成为世界经济火车头,这有什么好奇怪的。

Good!! Gooo China!!
棒棒哒!!中国加油!!

The world can't live without China.
全球经济离不开中国。
文:A君
资料:Reuters, news.yahoo.com
图:新华网、Reuters
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