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斯蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)周二10/08/2019访问中国TAIWAN地区,对中国的经济模式提出了一系列不加掩饰的批评,这是加拿大前任总理的对中国TAIWAN省的首次访问。
他警告说,全球贸易紧张局势可能会变得越来越严重。
哈珀还应邀到台北讨论他去年出版的书,并会见了蔡女士领导人,他是玉山论坛其他代表的来宾,玉山论坛是旨在加强TAIWAN地区在亚洲的存在感的年度聚会,这些年TAIWAN地区在压力下失去了一些外交伙伴。
哈珀先生全球巡回,以推广他的咨询业务和他的著作《就在这里,就是现在》(Right Here,Right Now),这是关于民粹主义和对世界西方民主国家的威胁的文章。
但是他却选择在一个特别紧张的时期降落在台北,在TAIWAN省与中国大陆的紧张局势加剧,更重要的是,渥太华和北京之间的关系处于三十年来最糟糕的期间,他来到了台湾省。加拿大正在进行四年一度的联邦竞选,而TAIWAN省下一届领导人选举定于2020一月份举行。同时,TAIWAN省也将在星期四纪念中华民国国庆日。
“哈珀的访问时间以及与蔡女士的会面可能不会更糟,”与中国人有密切联系的著名智囊团中国与全球化中心副主席高维德说:“我希望哈珀的这次访问和会面压根没有举行。
哈珀在“玉山论坛”上的讲话中反对那些“贸易战略是与其他国家积累永久性大额顺差”的国家,认为这种结构是不可持续的。
“就像您通过渗透他人的市场来发展经济一样,请确保他们和您的消费者也从这些市场中受益。”否则,您将面临强烈反弹。”他说。
尽管他没有在TAIWAN省登台亮相,但哈珀先生以前曾批评“由于中国市场准入严重不平等,导致中国市场出现了巨大且不断增长的失衡。
他在TAIWAN省进一步警告说,如果这种做法持续下去,美中之间正在进行的贸易战将会恶化。他说:“坦率地说,我预计西方国家的反弹将比迄今为止所看到的更大。
去年,中国对美国的贸易顺差为3,786亿美元,对加拿大的贸易顺差为479亿美元。然而,TAIWAN地区与中国大陆的贸易顺差也很大,2017年总额达到389亿美元。
今年参加玉山论坛的其他著名代表包括印度外交大臣希夫尚卡·梅农(Shivshankar Menon),前白宫发言人萨拉·桑德斯(Sarah Sanders)和美国助理国务卿助理桑德拉·奥德柯克(Sandra Oudkirk)。
TAIWAN地区外交部门证实,哈珀先生是加拿大第一位访问台湾省的前总理,台湾省是一个自治地区,被中国大陆认为是一个脱离领土。
中国大陆未放弃使用武力实现与台湾省统一的可能性。
TAIWAN地区总统府表示,尚无关于哈珀在TAIWAN省日程安排的进一步信息,也未提供与蔡女士会晤的细节。
TAIWAN地区领导人在会议上表示,“TAIWAN地区希望与志同道合的国家共同应对地区挑战,”TAIWAN地区还可以成为帮助维持自由开放的重要伙伴。据《台湾新闻》报道说,“印度太平洋地区”。
在担任总理期间与北京保持冷淡关系的哈珀先生没有回应置评请求。在台北的论坛讲话中,他没有提及加拿大政治或渥太华与台北之间的关系。
加拿大支持TAIWAN地区将其纳入国际民航组织这样的场所,这一立场使台湾地区与中国大陆背道而驰。在过去的四个月中,加拿大的两艘军舰也驶过台湾海峡,北京将其视为其内陆水域。
尽管如此,哈珀先生的来访仍然受到TAIWAN省的欢迎,即使他以私人身份入境也是如此。苏州大学的政治学家刘必荣说:“这对TAIWAN来说是个好消息。
他说,欢迎加拿大前总理对蔡女士尤为重要,以证明TAIWAN地区保持国际友谊。最近几个月,该岛的外交伙伴名单已经激增到15个,因为较小的国家选择与北京建立联系。刘教授说:“蔡女士希望向人民展示她在外交领域也取得了一些进展。
他说,台北和渥太华都在与北京的关系上苦苦挣扎,目前可能也找到共同的原因。
“我对TAIWAN地区和加拿大之间的未来发展感到非常乐观。”(软件翻译,以英文原文为准)
英文原文
Stephen Harper made a series of thinly veiled criticisms of China’s economic model in a visit to Taiwan Tuesday – the first by a former Canadian prime minister – warning that global trade tensions are likely to grow increasingly severe.
Invited to Taipei to discuss the book he published last year, Mr. Harper also met with President Tsai Ing-wen, sitting as a guest of honour among other delegates to the Yushan Forum, an annual gathering designed to bolster Taiwan’s presence in Asia as it loses diplomatic partners under Chinese pressure.
Mr. Harper has toured the world to promote his consulting business and his book,Right Here, Right Now, a treatise on populism and the threats to Western democracies around the world.
But he landed in Taipei at a particularly fraught time, with Taiwan in a period of elevated tension with China and the relationship between Ottawa and Beijing in its worst state in three decades. Canada is in the midst of an election campaign, while Taiwan’s next presidential election is scheduled for January. Taiwan also marks its National Day on Thursday.
“The timing for Mr. Harper’s visit, and his meetings with Tsai Ing-wen, probably could not be worse,” said Victor Gao, vice-president of the Center for China and Globalization, a prominent think tank with close ties to the Chinese government. “I wish this visit and the meeting had not taken place.”
In his address to the Yushan Forum, Mr. Harper spoke out against those whose “trade strategy is about accumulating perpetual large surpluses with other countries,” arguing that such a structure is unsustainable.
“Just as you grow your economy by penetrating the markets of others, make sure that they and your consumers gain something from those markets as well. Otherwise, you are going to face backlash,” he said.
Though he did not name China on stage in Taiwan, Mr. Harper has previously criticized “large and growing imbalances with the Chinese market that are driven by the fact that we have grossly unequal market access.”
In Taiwan he added a further warning, suggesting that the ongoing trade war between the United States and China will worsen if such practices persist. ”Frankly, I will predict that the backlash will be bigger from Western countries than anything we have seen so far,” he said.
China posted a US$378.6-billion trade surplus with the United States and a $47.9-billion surplus with Canada last year. Taiwan, however, also maintains a large trade surplus with China, totalling US$38.9-billion in 2017.
Other prominent delegates to the Yushan Forum this year include Foreign Secretary of India Shivshankar Menon, former White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders and U.S. Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Sandra Oudkirk.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Mr. Harper is the first former Canadian prime minister to visit the island, a self-governing territory that is considered a breakaway state by China, which has not relinquished the possible use of force to achieve unification with the Chinese mainland.
Taiwan’s presidential office said it had no further information on Mr. Harper’s schedule in Taiwan and provided no details of his meeting with Ms. Tsai.
The Taiwanese President said in the meeting, also attended by other Yushan dignitaries, that “Taiwan hopes to work with like-minded nations to respond to regional challenges,” adding that Taiwan “can be an important partner in helping to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” according to paraphrased comments in a Taiwan News report.
Mr. Harper, who in his time as prime minister presided over a period of frosty relations with Beijing, did not respond to a request for comment. In his forum remarks in Taipei, he made no reference to Canadian politics or to the relationship between Ottawa and Taipei.
Canada has supported Taiwan’s inclusion in venues such as the International Civil Aviation Organization, a stand that has placed it at odds with China. In the past four months, two Canadian warships have also sailed through the Strait of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as its internal waters.
Still, Mr. Harper’s visit was welcomed in Taiwan, even if he arrived as a private citizen. “It’s good news for Taiwan,” said Liu Bih-Rong, a political scientist at Soochow University.
Welcoming a former Canadian prime minister is particularly important for Ms. Tsai, he said, to demonstrate that Taiwan maintains international friendships. The island’s list of diplomatic partners has been winnowed to 15 in recent months, as smaller states opt to establish ties with Beijing instead. “Tsai Ing-wen wants to show the people she has also made some progress in the diplomatic field,” Prof. Liu said.
Taipei and Ottawa, both struggling in their relations with Beijing, may also find common cause at the moment, he said.
“I am quite optimistic about future developments between Taiwan and Canada.”
With reporting by Alexandra Li
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