鹿死谁手:2018美国中期选举的主战场 — 国会众议院
2016年美国总统大选之后,民主党在国会众议院增加了6个席位,但是没有达到重新获得控制权所需的30个席位,以194对241落后,继续扮演少数党的角色。在2018年2月的一次特别选举中,宾州的一个共和党席位被翻蓝之后,民主党需要在2018年中期选举中继续翻转23个席位才能赢得多数席位,从而掌控众议院。下面是目前众议院党派分布图,总共435个席位,民主党占193席,共和党235席,另外有7个空位(2个民主党和5个共和党留下的)。
这次中期选举,民主党一心要翻蓝国会,而共和党则想力保他们目前在两院拥有的多数党地位,川普总统也为此到处去为共和党助选。由于参议院100个参议员只有35个面临重选,其中多数现任是民主党及其同盟(26个),民主党要想在目前49席对51席的基础上有所提高非常困难。因此,这次中期选举,众议院才是两党的主战场。国会435个众议员全部面临重选,根据Ballotpedia.org网站分析,有80个选区选情激烈,堪称战区,其中71个现任是共和党(详情见下图)。
https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District_election,_2018
小调查
80个战区清单
下面是这80个战区的清单,其中加州最多,有10个战区,9个现任是共和党(即所谓红区),这是民主党翻蓝的希望所在。清单也包括了俄亥俄的三个区:1,7和12,目前现任全部是共和党,面临强劲的民主党对手挑战。
United States House Battleground Races | |
选区(District) | 现任(Incumbent) |
Alaska's at-large | Don Young |
Arkansas' 2nd | French Hill |
Arizona's 1st | Tom O'Halleran |
Arizona's 2nd | Martha McSally |
California's 8th | Paul Cook |
California's 10th | Jeff Denham |
California's 16th | Jim Costa |
California's 22nd | Devin Nunes |
California's 25th | Stephen Knight |
California's 39th | Edward Royce |
California's 45th | Mimi Walters |
California's 48th | Dana Rohrabacher |
California's 49th | Darrell Issa |
California's 50th | Duncan Hunter |
Colorado's 6th | Mike Coffman |
Florida's 15th | Dennis Ross |
Florida's 16th | Vern Buchanan |
Florida's 18th | Brian Mast |
Florida's 25th | Mario Diaz-Balart |
Florida's 26th | Carlos Curbelo |
Florida's 27th | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
Georgia's 6th | Karen Handel |
Georgia's 7th | Rob Woodall |
Illinois' 6th | Peter Roskam |
Illinois' 12th | Mike Bost |
Illinois' 13th | Rodney Davis |
Illinois' 14th | Randy Hultgren |
Iowa's 1st | Rod Blum |
Iowa's 3rd | David Young |
Kansas' 2nd | Lynn Jenkins |
Kansas' 3rd | Kevin Yoder |
Kentucky's 6th | Andy Barr |
Maine's 2nd | Bruce Poliquin |
Michigan's 8th | Mike Bishop |
Michigan's 11th | David Trott |
Minnesota's 1st | Tim Walz |
Minnesota's 2nd | Jason Lewis |
Minnesota's 3rd | Erik Paulsen |
Minnesota's 8th | Rick Nolan |
Montana's at-large | Greg Gianforte |
Nebraska's 2nd | Don Bacon |
Nevada's 3rd | Jacky Rosen |
Nevada's 4th | Ruben Kihuen |
New Hampshire's 1st | Carol Shea-Porter |
New Jersey's 2nd | Frank LoBiondo |
New Jersey's 3rd | Tom MacArthur |
New Jersey's 7th | Leonard Lance |
New Jersey's 11th | Rodney Frelinghuysen |
New Mexico's 2nd | Steve Pearce |
New York's 11th | Dan Donovan |
New York's 19th | John Faso |
New York's 22nd | Claudia Tenney |
New York's 27th | Chris Collins |
North Carolina's 2nd | George Holding |
North Carolina's 9th | Robert Pittenger |
North Carolina's 13th | Ted Budd |
Ohio's 1st | Steve Chabot |
Ohio's 7th | Bob Gibbs |
Ohio's 12th | Troy Balderson |
Pennsylvania's 1st | Brian Fitzpatrick |
Pennsylvania's 5th | Vacant |
Pennsylvania's 6th | Ryan Costello |
Pennsylvania's 7th | Vacant |
Pennsylvania's 14th | Conor Lamb |
Pennsylvania's 17th | Keith Rothfus |
South Carolina's 1st | Mark Sanford |
Texas' 7th | John Culberson |
Texas' 23rd | Will Hurd |
Texas' 32nd | Pete Sessions |
Utah's 4th | Mia Love |
Virginia's 2nd | Scott Taylor |
Virginia's 5th | Thomas Garrett |
Virginia's 7th | David Brat |
Virginia's 10th | Barbara Comstock |
Washington's 3rd | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
Washington's 5th | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
Washington's 8th | Dave Reichert |
Washington's 9th | Adam Smith |
West Virginia's 3rd | Evan Jenkins |
Wisconsin's 1st | Paul Ryan |
请到下面网站(或点击文末的“阅读原文”链接)查看你在哪个国会区,如果你刚好住在上面这些区,一定要特别关注这次选举。
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative
29个决胜区清单
选情网站270towin.com根据最新民意测试分析显示,众议院选情非常激烈,民主党目前仅以209对197的微弱优势领先,剩下的29席(其中28个现任是共和党),两党势均力敌,胜负难料。这29个选区的结果,将决定鹿死谁手。华人集居的加州有5个,纽约新泽西共有4个,俄亥俄也有1个这样的决胜区(OH-12)。请仔细查看下面的清单,生活在这些决胜区的朋友,如果你有投票权,一定要去投票,也许你的一票将决定美国的方向!
选区及现任议员 | 共和党候选人 | 民主党候选人 |
CA-10 Jeff Denham | Josh Harder | |
CA-25 Stephen Knight | Katie Hill | |
CA-39 OPEN | Kim Young | Gil Cisneros |
CA-45 Mimi Walters | Katie Porter | |
CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher | Harley Rouda | |
FL-15 OPEN | Ross Spano | Kristen Carlson |
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | |
IA-3 David Young | Cindy Axne | |
IL-14 Randy Hultgren | Lauren Underwood | |
KS-2 OPEN | Steve Watkins | Paul Davis |
KY-6 Andy Barr | Amy McGrath | |
ME-2 Bruce Poliquin | Jared Golden | |
MI-8 Mike Bishop | Elissa Slotkin | |
MN-1 OPEN | Jim Hagedorn | Dan Feehan |
NC-9 OPEN | Mark Harris | Dan McCready |
NC-13 Ted Budd | Kathy Manning | |
NJ-3 Tom MacArthur | Andrew Kim | |
NJ-7 Leonard Lance | Tom Malinowski | |
NM-2 OPEN | Yvette Herrell | Xochitl Torres Small |
NY-19 John Faso | Antonio Delgado | |
NY-22 Claudia Tenney | Anthony Brindisi | |
OH-12 Troy Balderson | Danny O’Connor | |
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick | Scott Wallace | |
TX-7 John Culberson | Lizzie Pannill Fletcher | |
TX-32 Pete Sessions | Colin Allred | |
UT-4 Mia Love | Ben McAdams | |
VA-2 Scott Taylor | Elaine Luria | |
VA-7 David Brat | Abigail Spanberger | |
WA-8 OPEN | Dino Rossi | Kim Schrier |
说明:
1.上面清单上“现任”一列如果显示“OPEN”,是指现任退出,不参加这次选举。
2.蓝色代表民主党,红色代表共和党。
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