经过2017年历史最低波动之后,在标准普尔500指数(指数)在今年前18个交易日上涨7.5%到126日的2872高点以后,波动再度回到了美国股市。126日收盘后仅9个交易日,该指数在28日收盘时下跌了10.2%。峰值下降10%是通常所说的修正。股票(或任何具有一定风险程度的流动性资产类别)常常发生超过10%的跌幅,在此之前,自1967年以来,出现了27次至少10%的跌幅。意味着这种情况平均至少每两年发生一次。我们上一次的修正2016211日结束,因此最近的一次修正发生在距离最后一次不到两年的时间点。在这27修正事件中,27次修正中有18次在下跌超过20%之前结束,而超过20%通常被称为熊市

 

希望所有的投资者在投资之前都能意识到10-20%的跌幅是常见的。

 

所以下一个问题是你认为这是熊市的开始吗?对此我的回应是,不,根据历史数据,在没有出现反转收益率曲线和随后的衰退以前,股市没有出现过下跌超过20%。目前没有收益率曲线反转信号表示经济衰退,本季度经济GDP增长至少在当前季度看起来强劲(年率至少为2.5%)。从估值的角度来看,股市相对于其历史而言并没有被严重高估。目前指数市盈率为24,而预测市盈率(未来12月)为17,与历史交易位置一致。事实上,在二十世纪九十年代后期(1995  -  2000年),当指数收益年增长12-20%时,指数市盈率一直在30以上,在35-50倍的范围内持续了很长时间。所以总结一下,估值在短期内不会是一个很好的市场指引。

 

所以我对客户的建议是不看股票市场或者你的账户价值,所以也就不用担心。换句话说,眼不见心不想,我建议把注意力集中在像工作,家庭,爱好,网络等其他事情上,因为长期(超过5年以上)的股票市场,随后你的账户价值会高于今天,所以除非您需要在未来1  -  2年内清算账户中的股票以作他用(在这种情况下,您不应该投资股票),那么每天,每月或者股票市场的季度变动对你来说是完全没有意义的。此外,如果你是一个精明的持有超过必要流动性(现金)的人,那么你应该利用这样的下跌来增加你的股票分配,只有在所有的人都在卖的时候,才有可能低价买入优质资产。

 

结论:美国股市修正定义为标准普尔指数跌幅大于10%但小于20%的情况见下表。自1967年以来,这些事件中有18次发生。这些事件的频率和频率明显高于熊市(定义为指数下跌超过20%)。很少有预警信号显示这样的市场调整,我们也不打算避免,因为它是投资于股票(具有一定风险程度的任何资产)的良机,最好将这些事件用作增加仓位的机会。



 

After a year of record low volatility in 2017,volatility has returned to the US stock market as the S&P500 index (thestock market “index”) increased 7.5% in the first 18 trading days of the yearuntil the January 26th peak level of 2872. In only 9 trading days after theJanuary 26th close peak the index decreased 10.2% on its February 8th close.The 10% decline from its peak is what is commonly referred to as a“correction”.  Declines of greater than10% are common occurrences with stocks (or any liquid asset class that has adegree of risk), as prior to this occurrence, there have been 27 instances of atleast a 10% peak to trough decline since 1967. That would mean that this occurson average at least once every 2 years. Our last “correction” ended on February11, 2016, therefore this recent one happened almost right on que at a littleless than 2 years since the last one. Of these 27 “correction” occurrences 18of these 27 corrections ended before dropping more than 20%, which is commonlyreferred to as a “bear” market. Hopefully all investors were made aware beforethey invested that a 10-20% decline is a common occurrence, so there nextquestion is, “do you think this is the start of a bear market”? To which myresponse is,” No, based on history the stock market has not dropped more than20% without being preceded by an inverted yield curve and subsequentrecession”. Currently there is no yield curve inversion to signal a recession,and economic GDP growth in the current quarter and at least looking out onequarter looks robust (at least 2.5% annualized). From a valuation perspectivethe stock market is not severely overvalued relative to its history. Currentlythe index P/E ratio is 24 and with growth the forward P/E ratio is 17, which isin line with where it has historically traded. In fact, during the late 1990’s(1995-2000) when the index earnings were growing a robust 12-20% annually theindex P/E ratio was consistently above 30 and spent significant time in the35-50x range. So to summarize, valuation is not going to be a particularlyuseful guide to tell the future direction of the market in the short term.

 

Therefore my advice to clients worried about thestock market gyrations is don’t watch the stock market or your account valuesand subsequently don’t worry. In other words “out of sight out of mind”  I would recommend focusing your attention onother things that really matter like your job, family, hobbies, network, etc,because long term (over 5+ years) the stock market and subsequently youraccount value will be higher than it is today, so unless you need to liquidatethe stocks in your account for a useful purpose within the next 1-2 years (inwhich case you should not be invested in stocks anyway), the daily, monthly orquarterly movements of the stock market are completely meaningless to you.Further if you are a savvy person who has been holding more liquidity (cash)than maybe necessary you should use declines like this to your advantage to addto your stock allocations as you will be rewarded handsomely to buying when itseems that everyone else is selling.

 

Conclusion: US stock market “corrections” asdefined as S&P index drops of greater than 10% but less than 20% are shownin the table above. There have been 18 of these occurrences since 1967. Theseoccurrences are significantly more (twice as) frequent and shorter in durationthan “bear” markets (defined as index declines of greater than 20%). There arefew if any preceding warning signs to stock market corrections and I believe itis futile to attempt to can avoid these as they are a function of investing instocks (any asset with a degree of risk). It is best to use these occurrencesas opportunities to increase stock allocations.  


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