首先表明一下我的立场:川普和希拉里二人我都不喜欢,而且在我看来他们都既无法代表美国华人的利益也无法代表留学生的利益。反正二人我谁都不支持,我也没有投票权,所以这次大选我就是作为一个吃瓜群众看戏了。希望这样的立场能让我的分析客观公正一点。


接下来我想说的是,尽管这次选举之后总统、参议院、众议员都成了共和党的天下,但是川普和共和党并不是铁板一块的,尤其在大选投票日前夕共和党建制派还纷纷表示不再背书川普。目前还不知道川普当选总统后共和党会有多配合他,所以我下面的分析也将分共和党和川普两方面分别讨论。



1. 共和党对留学生or合法移民的态度

(1) 共和党近年来经常提专门给 STEM 毕业生的工作签证 or 绿卡的提案,比如说下面这个:


H.R.6429 - 112th Congress (2011-2012): STEM Jobs Act of 2012
Sponsor: 茶党德州参议员 Lamar S. Smith

重点如下:
STEM Jobs Act of 2012 - (Sec. 2) Amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to make up to 55,000 visas available in FY2014 and subsequent fiscal years to qualified immigrants who: (1) have a doctorate degree in a field of science, technology, engineering, or mathematics (STEM degree) from a U.S. doctoral institution of higher education; and (2) have taken all doctoral courses in a STEM field, including all courses taken by correspondence or by distance education, while physically present in the United States.
(55,000专门给STEM的签证,发给在美读书的相关学科的Ph.D.)

Makes any such unused visas available to aliens who: (1) hold a master's degree in a STEM field from a U.S. doctoral institution of higher education that was either part of a master's program that required at least two years of enrollment or part of a five-year combined baccalaureate-master's degree program in such field; (2) have taken all master's degree courses in a STEM field, including all courses taken by correspondence or by distance education, while physically present in the United States; and (3) hold a baccalaureate degree in a STEM field or in a field included in the Department of Education's Classification of Instructional Programs taxonomy within the summary group of biological and biomedical sciences.
(如果用不完的话,给STEM的master们)
但是这个提案最终在民主党占优的参议院被否决了,主要理由是

However, the Administration does not support narrowly tailored proposals that do not meet the President's long-term objectives with respect to comprehensive immigration reform.

...  as well as other important priorities such as establishing a pathway for undocumented individuals to earn their citizenship.

(就是说必须连带着给非法移民一个公民通路才行,否则就不能通过。)
从共和党提的这个法案来看,他们是对 STEM 类留学生比较友好的。对于其他专业的留学生就不置可否了。


(2) 但是共和党2015年也有一个对 H1b 限制很大的提案:


Text - S.2394 - 114th Congress (2015-2016): American Jobs First Act of 2015
Sponsor: Ted Cruz,。Jeff Sessions 附议。

重点如下:

“(II) $110,000, if offered not later than 1 year after the date of the enactment of the American Jobs First Act of 2015, which amount shall be annually adjusted for inflation by July 1 of each year;

(要求 H1b 签证的最低工资定为每年 $110,000。)


“(4) EMPLOYMENT AUTHORIZATION FOR ALIENS NO LONGER ENGAGED IN FULL-TIME STUDY IN THE UNITED STATES.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no alien present in the United States as a nonimmigrant under section 101(a)(15)(F)(i) may be provided employment authorization in the United States pursuant to the Optional Practical Training Program, or any such successor program, without an express Act of Congress authorizing such a program.”.
(取消 OPT,不直接给毕业的学生工作许可。)
注:这一法案并没有提到 H1b 抽签,有人认为其意思是废除抽签制,但是个人认为更正确的解读应该是配额不变。


Jeff Sessions 还说过OPT是 “a backdoor method for replacing American workers” 。如果这样的法案被通过,没了 OPT,就算 H1b 的中签概率大增,也依然有很多人留不下来必须立刻回国。对于互联网、金融行业的留学生来说,$110,000的工资限制可能并不是什么难事,但是对于大多数其他专业的留学生来说,这种门槛就成了不可能完成的任务了。



2. 川普本人对留学生or合法移民的态度

川普在这方面的态度其实来回反复了好多次。


(1) 2015年8月的时候,川普发表了这样的 Twitter:


这两条 Twitter 让很多留学生欢欣鼓舞以为川普就是留学生的救世主。


(2) 但是川普被问到 H1b 签证的问题时,也说过这样的话(2016年3月):

It's something that I frankly use and I shouldn't be allowed to use it. We shouldn't have it. Very, very bad for workers.

(H1b 他作为商人的时候在用,但是他说他本不该被允许使用。他认为 H1b 签证对美国工人非常不好)

(3) 川普在他的拉力上说过这样的话:

"Companies are importing low-wage workers on H-1B visas to take jobs from young college-trained Americans," he said at this rally. "You've been seeing that and you've been hearing that. We will protect these jobs for all Americans, believe me."

(一些公司给 H1b 的工资太低了,这些外国人抢了美国人的工作,他以后要把美国人的工作放在第一位。)
上面两段话不得不让人联想到他很可能会同意 Ted Cruz 和 Jeff Sessions 关于限制 H1b/OPT 的提案;而且川普在其胜选演讲中还提到了 Jeff Sessions 并称其为 great man,很可能让他在新的政府中受到重用。


他甚至还说过要取消 J1 签证。


(4) 当然,川普一直就是大嘴巴,他说的那些自相矛盾的话不能尽信。在胜选之后,川普有了一个 .gov 后缀的网站:
greatagain.gov
。这个网站可以视作他现在的官方态度。其中有关于移民的几句话(
greatagain.gov/policy/i
):

  1. Build a Wall on the Southern Border
  2. End Catch-and-Release
  3. Zero Tolerance for Criminal Aliens
  4. Block Funding for Sanctuary Cities
  5. Cancel Unconstitutional Executive Orders & Enforce All Immigration Laws
  6. Suspend the Issuance of Visas to Any Place Where Adequate Screening Cannot Occur
  7. Ensure that Other Countries Take Their People Back When We Order Them Deported
  8. Finally Complete the Biometric Entry-Exit Visa Tracking System
  9. Turn Off the Jobs and Benefits Magnet
  10. Reform Legal immigration to Serve the Best Interests of America and its Workers
其中对中国留学生来说唯一相关的大概就是最后一句了:改良合法移民程序,使其最符合美国和美国工人的利益。什么样的改革才能最符合美国利益呢?目前并没有具体信息了。



3. 美国民意

不得不说,普通美国人是分不清非法移民和合法移民的。一部分原因是,美国人根本没有必要了解移民程序,正如咱们中国人也基本不了解中国绿卡有哪几种获得方式、中国签证分为哪几种类型。另一部分原因是,民主党以及主流媒体刻意的把 illegal 这个词给淡化了,取而代之的是用 undocumented immigrant 来称呼非法移民。这二者的共同作用使得普通美国人经常在谈论 undocumented immigrant,但是却搞不清楚也不想搞清楚合法移民和非法移民的区别。以至于大选结果出来之后,很多反对川普的人看见我们中国留学生都会同情的说川普上台之后我们都要被驱逐了。而对于那些种族歧视者来说,他们就更不管是不是合法移民了,只要咱们还是亚洲面孔,就会被他们所讨厌。


基于美国的民意不区分合法非法移民的现状,民主党支持者普遍是欢迎移民的,而共和党支持者是普遍反对移民的。这次川普上台,话语权被压制已久的反移民分子声音应该会被放大,民意应该会反弹。我的猜测是合法移民会跟着一起中枪,一起被新的主流民意所反对。议会毕竟会考虑民意的,他们很可能会顺应这种风气。



4. 总结

基于以上分析,我个人的猜测是:拿到 STEM 专业 PhD 的,从事互联网、金融等高薪行业的留学生在共和党上台之后的日子可能会好过一点;但是对于其他大部分留学生而言,可能连维持现状都难了,估计以后会很难在美国找到工作了。


希望我的猜测是错的,希望川普+共和党的政府能够让更多想要留在美国的留学生留下吧!
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